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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Waterson vs. Hill

Expert MMA handicapper Christian Broughton has won been in profit on 10 of the last 12 UFC events. Looking to extend his winning run, he sets his sights on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill.
Christian Broughton
Wed, September 9, 1:47 PM

Bet of the Card: (2u) Matt Schnell Moneyline @ +100 (to Return 4 Units)

Matt Schnell vs. Tyson Nam

Preliminary Card Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:30 p.m. EST.

  • Schnell is currently fighting in his prime at 30 years of age, whereas Tyson Nam is just one month removed from turning 37 and his speed is only going to be declining from here.

My bet of the card for this week is on Matt “Danger” Schnell.

This fight initially opened as a pick’em, with Schnell being bet down quickly to around the -162 mark. Since then, there’s been money coming back in on Nam, and it’s enough that the books have now flipped Nam into becoming around a -120 favorite. This line movement looks to be largely due to Nam’s emphatic round 1 KO win over 3-1 fighter, Zarrukh Adashev, back in June (pictured below). Prior to that, Nam looked like he was only another loss or two away from leaving the UFC, so it’s important to recognize potential recency bias following a fighter winning via a big knockout.

Schnell has been on an impressive run over the past 3 years, going 4-1 over his last five fights, with his only loss coming against one of the flyweight division’s most elite fighters, Alexandre Pantoja. In that fight, Schnell had early success with his striking, even rocking the incredibly durable, Pantoja, in the opening few minutes. Unfortunately for Schnell, he ended up getting a little over-exuberant with his pressure after that, and ultimately it resulted in him getting caught by one of Pantoja’s devastating overhands. For me, the loss isn’t a black mark on his record. It was a good performance and it’s provided him some solid experience, the kind of experience that should serve him well against a hard-hitting striker like Tyson Nam.

Schnell holds a notable 4.5-inch reach and 1-inch height advantage over Nam (per Tapology.com), as well as an edge in speed. Combining this with his increased striking volume, I can see Schnell being the more effective distance striker of the two. He will of course have to stay patient and calculated at times, so not to get caught again, as he did against Pantoja, but providing that he does, he could win this fight going away. In addition to this, Schnell also yields the better wrestling and grappling, and should this fight hit the mat, he could keep Nam on his back for prolonged periods, or even potentially pursue a submission.

I’ve got Schnell taking this fight on the scorecards, but I think he also has the skills to get this won inside the distance, and for that reason, I’m taking him straight on the moneyline.

Matt Schnell Moneyline @ +100

(1.5u) Angela Hill @ +138 (to Return 3.5625 Units)

Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill

Main Event Women’s Strawweight (115lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:15 p.m. EST.

  • Angela Hill ranks second for most significant strikes landed in UFC women’s strawweight history (1114), second for highest significant strike defense amongst active strawweights, as well as fourth for best takedown defense percentage (72.2%) (per StatLeader.UFC.com).

My pick for Saturday’s main event is Angela “Overkill” Hill.

Waterson enters this bout following back-to-back losses against two former-UFC strawweight champions, Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. On the other side, Hill comes in after going 3-1 over her last four, and she could even be 4-0, should a razor-close split-decision against Cláudia Gadelha have swung her way. Now, although it’s difficult to compare recent results given the gulf in class between their opposition, it is fair to say that Hill has been looking like the far more improved fighter as of late.

Angela has shown us new wrinkles to her game recently, including improved skills on the ground, particularly from top position, as well as crisper and more powerful striking on the feet. Both fighters are 34 years-of-age, with only 6 days separating them, but Waterson’s been fighting at a relatively flat level for years now, whereas Hill’s currently going through a late-career resurgence, following a very hit-and-miss career to this point.

I see Hill out-voluming Waterson whist standing over the course of the five rounds. Michelle may be the slightly quicker fighter, at least with her footwork, but with Hill’s sniper-like straight punches and kicks, plus her 2.5-inch reach advantage (per Tapology.com), I simply expect her to keep the fight at distance and land the more shots. Should the fight hit the mat, I’d have some concern for Waterson’s underrated submission skills, but Hill’s takedown defense isn’t horrible at 72%, and Waterson has often shown a reluctance to engage in the grappling, even when it’s in her favor.

I’ve taken Hill to win via decision over playing her moneyline. Waterson is pound-for-pound (P4P) one of the toughest fighters in the whole UFC, and I struggle to see Hill putting her away, thus making her +138 decision prop much more appealing than her -125 moneyline.

Angela Hill Moneyline @ +138

(1.5u) Over 1.5 Rounds @ -118 (to Return 2.775 Units)

Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodriguez

Main Card Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:45 p.m. EST.

  • Ed Herman has gone to decision in 3 of last 4 fights, and he hasn’t been finished in over 4 years. 

My final bet of the card is on Ed “Short Fuse” Herman vs. “Slow” Mike Rodriguez to go over 1.5 rounds (2 minutes 30 seconds of round 2).

Betting overs in light heavyweight fights is often pretty daunting given that it’s the second largest weight class, and with that comes a ton of variants. With that being said, I really like this fight in particular to go “over”. Ed Herman is an incredibly savvy veteran and as tough as they come, even though he’s less than one month away from eclipsing the age of 40.  Unlike Herman, we have seen “Slow” Mike get finished recently (in December 2019 vs. Da Un Jung), but that was against a young heavy hitter, whereas he’s now facing an old dog who’s never been known for his knockout ability.

I expect Herman to take the outside and circle around Rodriguez, doing well to keep distance and stay away from Mike’s power in the early goings. Once they’ve both settled down a bit, I see Herman stepping in to potentially clinch up and land short strikes. From there, I could see this turning into a gritty clinch battle against the fence. But even if this were to stay at range, I’m still not entirely convinced that Rodriquez would be able to produce a clear opening to wipe out Herman with a powerful shot. For that reason, I can easily see this lumbering over 1.5 rounds, if not going the full distance.

Herman vs. Rodriguez Over 1.5 Rounds @ -118

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 

Event: UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill / UFC on ESPN+ 35 / UFC Vegas 10 / #UFCVegas10

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, September 12th, 2020

Start time: Main Card: 8 p.m. EST, Prelims 5 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill

 

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill Main Event Prediction

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill – Hill via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill Main Card Predictions

Lightweight (155lbs): Khama Worthy vs. Ottman Azaitar – Azaitar via KO/TKO

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Roxanne Modafferi vs. Andrea Lee – Lee via Decision

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodriguez – Rodriguez via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Billy Quarantillo vs. Kyle Nelson –Quarantillo via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill Prelim Card Predictions

Flyweight (125lbs): Matt Schnell vs. Tyson Nam – Schnell via Decision

(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Julia Avila vs. Sijara Eubanks – Avila via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Roosevelt Roberts vs. Matt Frevola – Roberts via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Bobby Green vs. Alan Patrick – Green via KO/TKO

Lightweight (155lbs): Frank Camacho vs. Brok Weaver – Weaver via Decision

Welterweight (170lbs): Bryan Barberena vs. Anthony Ivy – Barberena via KO/TKO

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Justine Kish vs. Sabina Mazo – Mazo via Decision

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Christian Broughton
ChrisRBroughton
A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.
Sep 2020
Record
Wins
3
Losses
3
Push
0
ROI
12.67%
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