UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Covington vs. Woodley

Expert MMA handicapper Christian Broughton is up over 12 units of profit since the beginning of August. Looking to extend his winning run, he sets his sights on this weekend’s highly anticipated card, UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley.
Christian Broughton
Wed, September 16, 1:48 PM

Bet of the Card: (2u) Parlay: Johnny Walker Moneyline @ -125 + Colby Covington Moneyline @ -350 for +131 (to Return 4.629 Units)

First Leg of Parlay: Johnny Walker Moneyline @ -125

Johnny Walker vs. Ryan Spann

Main Card Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:15 p.m. EST.

  • Johnny Walker boasts an insanely high significant strike accuracy (70%), with the second highest knockdown average in the entire UFC (2.26 per 15 minutes) (per StatLeaders.UFC.com).

The opening leg of my parlay for this weekend’s card is Johnny Walker.

The eccentric Brazilian, Johnny Walker, burst into the UFC, winning 3 straight fights, all by KO/TKO in under 2 minutes. It was an emphatic introduction to a relatively unknown prospect, and although it enabled us to get an idea of his potential, it also didn’t tell us much about what we could expect from him against higher-level opponents. Since his 3-0 stretch, he’s now picked up back-to-back losses, both against ranked fighters with solid grappling games. In his first UFC loss, he was simply overwhelmed by Corey Anderson right out of the gates. It was an uncharacteristic striking masterclass by Anderson, and although Walker looked out of his depth, that can often be the case with any fighter that gets clipped within the first 30 seconds of a fight. In his next bout, he was taken down and outwrestled by Ukrainian kickboxer/wrestler, Nikita Krylov. The defeat showed us a lot about Walker, specifically that his takedown defense isn’t great, but more importantly, that he’s capable of defending off his back and persevering through serious adversity, two qualities that should serve him well against someone like Ryan Spann.

Spann is 4-0 in the UFC, but it’s fair to say that he’s looked pretty unimpressive in all but one of his UFC bouts, the exception being his 1st round KO of Antônio Rogério Nogueira. Spann’s predominately a striker, but he often likes to mix things up with takedowns, which in theory is not a bad approach against someone with Johnny Walker’s skill set. The issue with this however, is that he seems to have serious stamina issues, and as a result, he typically settles for low-out put striking and sporadic lacklustre takedown attempts. So, in reality, not actually the best style for fighting against a guy who is high out-put, explosive, and does have some semblance of takedown defense and a get-up game.

I see this fight playing out largely on the feet. They’re both dangerous there, but Walker unquestionably has the better power, accuracy, speed, and volume, thus giving him the notable edge. Should Spann be able to take him down, I think this would actually be more to his detriment than Walker’s, as I’d expect Walker to defend well and work back up to his feet, leaving Spann the more fatigued fighter. I’ve got Walker getting this done via KO/TKO here, but I do see paths for him to win via submission or decision, so just play it safe and take his moneyline as the first leg of the parlay.

Walker ML @ -125

Second Leg of Parlay: Colby Covington Moneyline @ -350

Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley

Main Event Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:45 p.m. EST.

  • Colby Covington lands significant strikes at a much higher rate per minute than Tyron Woodley (4.17 vs. 2.38), he also averages over 4 times more takedowns attempts per 15 minutes (4.91 vs. 1.11), all whilst nearly-matching him for significant striking defense percentage (55% vs. 56%) (per UFCStats.com).

Closing the parlay is Colby “Chaos” Covington.

Love him or hate him, Colby Covington has been an absolute money train for people who’ve bet on him religiously over the course of his career. His unrelenting pressure and cardio with the combination of his rangey volume striking and endless takedowns attempts, make him one of the toughest matchups to prepare for in the entire UFC. He’s coming into this fight following a closely contested championship loss to Kamaru Usman, and although he didn’t get his hand raised, he certainly still looked phenomenal even as the +175 underdog (per Tapology.com).

Tyron Woodley was once in the conversation with George St-Pierre for who should be considered as the Welterweight G.O.A.T. Many will dispute that they never even considered Woodley on that level, but at his peak championship run, he was putting on dominant (albeit boring) performances against some of the best welterweights the MMA world has ever seen. In 2020 however, Woodley is now thought to be a shadow of his former self, and a long way past his prime. In his last two fights with Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns (pictured below), he’s looked to be gun-shy (afraid to throw strikes) and generally timid; residing to circle round the cage and trying to engage as sparingly as possible. My only concern with betting Colby is that Woodley could land one of his powerful haymakers, but he hasn’t put anyone away with one since he KO’ed Robbie Lawler to win the belt back in mid-2016.

I see this being an absolute blowout for Colby Covington. Woodley may still yield an impressive 90% takedown defense, but against a relentless cardio machine-like Colby, I’d expect it to only be a matter of time before we see him chain wrestling and sitting Woodley down on the mat. Covington should have his way with Woodley both on the feet, as well as in the grappling. His conditioning is arguably the best in the UFC, and Woodley’s cardio only seems to be declining, even with his energy-preserving style. Take Colby Covington’s moneyline to round off the two-leg parlay, he likely wins via decision, but he could finish a fatigued Woodley in the later rounds.

Covington ML @ -350

(1.5u) Sarah Alpar Moneyline @ +180 (to Return @ 4.2 Units)

Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Sarah Alpar

Preliminary Card Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7 p.m. EST.

  • Jessica-Rose Clark (JRC) is 2-2 in the UFC, and she’s 1-3 in her last 4 bantamweight bouts.

My final bet of the card is on the UFC newcomer, Sarah “Too Sweet” Alpar.

Sarah Alpar isn’t the biggest bantamweight fighter, but she’s well-built and plenty strong enough to take people down and ragdoll them. She’s not the best striker, and although I do give the clear advantage to Clark standing, I see Alpar’s wrestling playing a stronger and more defining factor in the fight. JRC likes to engage in the clinch along the cage, and although that can prove effective for her, against someone like Alpar, I can see her getting out-muscled and consequently taken down as a result. From there, I can see Clark getting “grounded out” (unable to return to her feet or sweep her opponent to reverse position) and ultimately this could prove costly when it comes to how the judges score the fight.

Jessica-Rose Clark hasn’t impressed me so far in the UFC, and I’m kind of shocked that she’s impressed anyone enough to make her a -200 (best price) favorite in this fight. To put it simply, I think this one should be lined a lot closer than it is, and for that reason, I’m making a play on the underdog, Sarah Alpar.

Alpar ML @ +180

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 

Event: UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley / UFC on ESPN+ 336 / UFC Vegas 11 / #UFCVegas11

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, September 19th, 2020

Start time: Main Card: 8 p.m. EST, Prelims 5 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley

 

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley Main Event Prediction

Welterweight (170lbs): Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley – Covington via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley Main Card Predictions

Welterweight (170lbs): Donald Cerrone vs. Niko Price – Price via KO/TKO

Middleweight (185lbs): Khamzat Chimaev vs. Gerald Meerschaert – Chimaev via KO/TKO

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Johnny Walker vs. Ryan Spann – Walker via KO/TKO

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos – Dern via Submission

Middleweight (185lbs): Kevin Holland vs. Darren Stewart – Holland via Submission

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley Prelim Card Predictions

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Mara Romero Borella – Bueno Silva via Submission

Flyweight (125lbs): Jordan Espinosa vs. David Dvořák – Espinosa via Decision

(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Sarah Alpar – Alpar via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Randy Costa vs. Journey Newsome – Newsome via Submission

Bantamweight (135lbs): Andre Ewell vs. Irwin Rivera – Ewell via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Darrick Minner vs. T.J. Laramie – Laramie via Submission

Flyweight (125lbs): Tyson Nam vs. Jerome Rivera – Nam via Decision

Welterweight (170lbs): Miguel Baeza vs. Jeremiah Wells – Baeza via KO/TKO

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Christian Broughton
ChrisRBroughton
A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.
Sep 2020
Record
Wins
3
Losses
3
Push
0
ROI
12.67%
0Betslip

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