UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Ortega vs. Korean Zombie
Bet of the Card: (2.5u) Parlay: Chan Sung Jung Moneyline @ -190 + Jéssica Andrade Moneyline @ -141 For +162 (to Return 6.541 Units)
First Leg of Parlay: Chan Sung Jung Moneyline @ -190
Main Event Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:15 p.m. EST.
- Chan Sung Jung lands on average more significant strikes per minute than Brian Ortega (4.58 vs. 4.07), whilst doing so with greater accuracy (41% vs. 33%), and with better striking defense (60% vs. 50%) (per UFCStats.com).
- Chan Sung Jung has never been submitted in his 21-fight MMA career, which bodes well considering Ortega’s strongest path to victory is to submit his opponents.
This week I’m parlaying up my two favorite plays on the board, the first of which being “The Korean Zombie” (TKZ), Chan Sung Jung.
Zombie has only been this big of a favorite once in his 8-fight UFC career, and I think it’s not only warranted, but actually underselling his chances of winning. He is the definitively better striker and wrestler, and even if this were to turn into a grappling match, I still think Zombie is more than capable of holding his own against Ortega, a fighter known almost exclusively for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) skills (and toughness).
I see Zombie cruising on the feet against “T-City” (Ortega), perhaps not as seamlessly as Max Holloway did, nor with the same volume, but with harder and more compromising shots. It’s important to remember that Ortega isn’t a slouch with his striking, and he does have fight ending capability, but against someone as seasoned and durable as TKZ, it looks to be an unlikely outcome.
Ortega lands takedowns at just a 16% clip, so with Zombie’s 77% takedown defense, I would be surprised to see Ortega having much success trying to get this fight to the ground (per UFCStats.com). However, should he or Zombie decided to get this to the mat, I think it’ll be fairly close, and even with Ortega’s masterful variety of chokes, I still believe Zombie will defend well and keep it competitive.
I see Ortega’s main paths to victory as snapping up Zombie’s neck, should TKZ decide to go for a takedown, or by catching him with a big shot, similar to what he did to Frankie Edgar. Outside of those two outcomes, I’m struggling to see how he wins, as I don’t see him winning two rounds of this fight, let alone three of the five. Take The Korean Zombie on the moneyline, I can see him going all 25-minutes to claim a unanimous decision, or putting away the exceptionally durable, Brian Ortega.
Second Leg of Parlay: Jessica Andrade @ -141
Main Card Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:15 p.m. EST.
- Jessica Andrade has a takedown accuracy of 57%, and she lands an average of 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- Katlyn Chookagian yields a takedown defense of just 50%, and she’s given up at least one takedown in 5 of her last 7 fights (per UFCStats.com)
Rounding up my two-leg “bet of the card” parlay is the former-UFC Woman’s Strawweight Champion, Jessica Andrade.
This fight will be Andrade’s first up at flyweight, and although fighters moving up a weight class can often be a cause for concern, I can’t say it is in this spot. The reason being, Andrade has previously competed up as high as bantamweight (135lbs) during her UFC tenure, and despite her standing at just 5'1", her ability and sheer strength made her competitive against significantly larger fighters than Chookagian. If it weren’t for the late introduction of the women’s flyweight division, I dare say she’d have never even competed at strawweight, and she’d already be an established long-time top contender at 125lbs, if not a present or former champion.
I see Andrade being the aggressor in this fight, with her barrelling forward and Chookagian working off her back foot and trying to pop-shot Andrade as she comes in. This is a style that Chookagian has adopted throughout her career, and it’s one that has proved effective with the judges, as despite her being out-landed in 5 of her last 7 fights, she’s still been able to come away with five decision wins. That being said however, I don’t see her pitty patter type striking doing enough to keep Andrade away from her for long, and as a result I see her getting clinched up along the cage, and invariably taken down. Once on the ground, this will turn one-sided in favor of Andrade, and it could even result in a TKO or submission finish. Of course, Chookagian doesn’t have the worst get-up game in the world, but with Andrade’s relentless grappling style, I think it’d be only a matter of the time until we see Chook’ get returned to the canvas once again.
I will say, even if this fight were to largely play out on the feet, with Chookagian able to utilize her 8-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage, I still think Andrade has the notably better accuracy and power with her strikes, enough so to make this close statistically, with her landing the more damaging and emphatic shots.
For me, I think Chookagian’s ceiling-performance would be her winning a split-decision or a close 29-28, making her looking like a slight favorite at best, whereas Andrade would look like a slight underdog at worst, with her upside being a dominant -300 (or greater) mauling.
The pick for me is Andrade, I think some people betting Chookagian are getting a little too “cute”, and forgetting that she typically only wins close fights, and she’s been on the favorable ends of decisions against significantly worse fighters than Andrade. Take Jessica Andrade to win on the moneyline, I think she’s incredibly live to win via decision, submission, or KO/TKO.
(0.5u) Gadzhimurad Antigulov Round 1 @ +800 (to Return 4.5 Units)
Preliminary Card Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 4:25 p.m. EST.
- 17 of Gadzhimurad Antigulov’s 20 career wins have come in the first round (per Sherdog.com)
My final bet of the card is small value play on Gadzhimurad Antigulov to win in round 1.
Antigulov is a known commodity at this point, he either runs through his opponent in the first round, or he’s almost certain to lose the fight. It’s not necessarily the most intelligent game plan, but for betting purposes, it offers up a fairly straight forward way of evaluating his chances of winning. His odds to win in the first round are a massive +800, offering up an implied win percentage of just 11.1%, which by my estimations could easily be 20% (+400), if not higher. For this reason, it just has to be a play for me, albeit a small one.
Expect Antigulov to come out like a wild man, swinging ruthlessly and looking to take Grishin down to the mat. Once there, he’ll be looking for a submission or ground and pound. He’s a man who fights fast and with the intentions of putting his opponent away, and if he fails to do so, then sobeit, I know he’s going to go out there and fight his ass off for my +800 round 1 ticket.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Zombie / Ortega vs. Korean Zombie / Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie / Ortega vs. Jung / UFC on ESPN+ 38 / UFC Fight Island 6 / #UFCFightIsland6
Location & Venue: Flash Forum, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Date: Saturday, October 17th, 2020
Start time: Main Card: 7 p.m. EST, Prelims 4 p.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Korean Zombie Full Fight Card Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Korean Zombie Main Event Prediction
Featherweight (145lbs): Brian Ortega vs. Chan Sung Jung – Jung via KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Korean Zombie Main Card Predictions
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Katlyn Chookagian vs. Jessica Andrade – Andrade via Decision
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Jimmy Crute vs. Modestas Bukauskas – Crute via Submission
Bantamweight (135lbs): Thomas Almeida vs. Jonathan Martinez – Almeida via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Korean Zombie Prelim Card Predictions
Lightweight (155lbs): Mateusz Gamrot vs. Guram Kutateladze – Gamrot via Decision
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Gillian Robertson vs. Poliana Botelho – Robertson via Submission
Welterweight (170lbs): Claudio Silva vs. James Krause – Krause via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Jun Yong Park vs. John Phillips – Park via Submission
Lightweight (155lbs): Fares Ziam vs. Jamie Mullarkey – Mullarkey via Submission
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs. Maxim Grishin – Antigulov via Submission
Bantamweight (135lbs): Said Nurmagomedov vs. Mark Striegl – Nurmagomedov via Decision
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.