Bet of the Card: (2u) Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance @ +140 (to Return 4.8 Units)
Preliminary Card Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 5:40 p.m. EST.
- 5 of Cole Williams’ last 6 fights have ended inside the distance (per Sherdog.com).
- Jason Witt has only been to a decision 6 times in his 23-fight pro MMA career (per Tapology.com).
My bet of the card for this Saturday is on Williams vs. Witt to end inside the distance (meaning that it won’t go to the judges’ scorecards).
Both Cole Williams and Jason Witt have only had one UFC appearance, both losing via stoppage in round one. Each guy will still be relatively unknown to even the most hardcore fight fans, and I’d expect it to stay that way, as I don’t see either fighter being in the UFC for any extended period of time.
Jason Witt can both wrestle and strike, but that’s not to say that he’s phenomenal at either. His striking can sometimes look slow and labored, and as a result he can often leave himself open to getting countered by his opponents (pictured below: Jason Witt getting KO’ed by Takashi Sato - 48 seconds into his UFC debut). His wrestling isn’t anything to write home about, but against Cole Williams, a fighter who’s prone to giving up takedowns, it should be enough to get the fight to the mat. Once there, he can wear on Williams from top position, and threaten with submissions or ground and pound.
Cole Williams is also well-rounded, but really lacks the cutting edge to make any aspect of his game too threatening. It’s likely that with Witt’s advantage in the wrestling, Cole’s most likely path to victory would be by knocking Witt out, and I certainly think he’s “live” to do that. If he’s unable to get anything going on the feet early, I suspect we’ll see the 36-year-old, Williams, starting to fatigue, and as a result, becoming more vulnerable and susceptible to being stopped.
Ultimately, I could see this fight going either way, but I do see it ending inside the distance. Both guys have the capability to end it on the feet, and although I give the submission edge to Witt, I also think both guys are capable of finishing it on the mat too. Expect Williams and Witt to go after the ‘W’ here, I think this could get a little sloppy at times, but with two regional fighters who actively pursue finishes, it should offer up plenty of fight ending moments. Take the “fight doesn’t go the distance” prop, I think it finishes inside the distance more often than not, and for that reason, +140 is simply too good to pass up on.
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance @ +140
(1.5u) Fight Goes the Distance @ -120 (to Return 2.75 Units)
Co-Main Event Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:45 p.m. EST.
- 8 of Andre Fili’s last 9 fights have gone to a decision (per Tapology.com).
- 3 of Bryce Mitchell’s 4 UFC fights (not including TUF) have gone to a decision (per Tapology.com).
My second bet is on the co-main event to go the distance.
This is a fascinating matchup between a well-established fringe-contender, Andre Fili (pictured above), and a surging undefeated prospect, Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili will undoubtably have the edge in the striking, and Bryce Mitchell seemingly has the edge in the grappling, with the wrestling likely proving quite close.
Bryce Mitchell is favored in this fight, although money has been pouring in on Fili over the past few days. The oddsmakers now have this bout lined as Mitchell (-150)/Fili (+135). At these odds, I feel partially compelled to take Fili as the ‘dog, but I’m drawn to the “goes the distance” prop instead, as I see both fighter dealing with the other’s offense for the full 15 minutes, and this going to a close decision.
It’s pretty unusual for me to take a fight to go the distance when there’s a clear clash of styles, but at -120, it looks to be a more than fair line in this spot. Fili possess length and good distance striking, but against Mitchell, a fighter that we’ve never seen compromised by strikes, I struggle to see Fili doing enough damage to end the fight. Mitchell on the other hand, has been making waves in the UFC following his sensational “Twister” submission victory over Matt Sayles, and his grappling clinic over Charles Rosa (pictured below). Mitchell deserves praise for the improvements he’s made to his game, as well as the utilization of unorthodox submissions, but it’s important to remember that his last name isn’t ‘Gracie’, and he’s not a world champion Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner. That being said, he absolutely has the tools to submit Fili, I just feel like both the public and bookmakers are overvaluing his chances of a submission, with his sub prop currently being priced around +230.
All things considered, Mitchell could produce another highlight submission, and Fili always has the potential to score an knockout (although this has been a rarity in recent years), but this fight should play out as a hard fought back-and-forth 15-minute battle.
Fight Goes the Distance @ -120
(1.1u) Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance @ -110 (to Return 2.1 Units)
Main Event Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:15 p.m. EST.
- Anderson Silva is 45 years of age, has shown a tendency to get injured from leg kicks, and he’s stated that this will be his retirement fight.
- 7 of Uriah Hall’s last 9 fights have ended inside the distance, and 8 of those 9 fights were three rounders (per Tapology.com).
My third and final bet is on the main event to not go the distance.
Anderson Silva came out recently and announced that this would be his final walk to the Octagon. The matchup is kind of fitting, considering that eight years ago Uriah Hall (pictured below) was being touted by many as “the next Anderson Silva”, as the fierce Jamaican brutalize his competition on route to the TUF 17 finale. Since then, it’s been tough sledding for both fighters, with Hall exchanging wins and losses with middleweights of varying skills, and with Silva losing his title and winning just one of his last 8 bouts (not including his overturned decision victory over Nick Diaz).
It’s been a slow descent from the top for Silva. He’s still been facing the middleweight elites, and he headlined a PPV only 18 months ago, but it’s fair to say that he’s a long way removed from the level of fighter he once was. His mind is still razor sharp, but his reflexes and body is letting him down. Surprisingly, his chin still looks decent, but it’s tough to watch him in his mid-40’s, welcoming his opponents to punch him in the face, in an attempt to slip them and counter-fire. Personally, I think he’s been a bit fortunate that he’s not been hurt worse in his most recent contests, and against someone with Hall’s precision and technique, I think he’d have to be even more fortunate to come out of this one unscathed.
I see this as being a bit of a beatdown by Uriah Hall, and I am reluctant to say that this will not be a fairy tale end for the consensus-middleweight G.O.A.T. Twenty five minutes is a long time for Anderson to compete for at his age, and it’s enough time to allow for a generally slow starting, Uriah Hall, to get up to pace and into the zone.
Despite my pessimism for Anderson’s chances in this fight, he is still a dangerous competitor, and he’s more than capable of catching Hall with something and putting him away. In fact, it’s for this very reason that I’m not betting Hall’s inside the distance prop, because in years past he’s been hurt and he’s opted to crumple to the ground, instead of biting down on his mouthpiece and looking to fight through.
In summation, I see Hall catching Silva with something, potentially in the middle rounds, if not earlier. Hall isn’t a prolific leg kicker, but with Silva suffering two losses due to leg kick injuries in recent years, the odd one or two, could be all it takes to end Silva’s night (pictured below: Anderson Silva following his TKO loss via leg kick injury to Jared Cannonier). Should Silva pull out one last piece of magic, and either score a knockout or submission, then the “fight doesn’t go the distance” (FDGTD) prop covers us for that too. Take the FDGTD, -110 is cheap, and I’d actually have the over/under 3.5 rounds prop lined at around this number, meaning that we’re getting a decent slice of value.
Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance @ -110
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva / UFC on ESPN+ 39 / UFC Vegas 12 / #UFCVegas12
Location & Venue: Live from UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date: Saturday, October 31st, 2020
Start time: Main Card: 7 p.m. EST, Prelims 4 p.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva Full Fight Card Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva Main Event Prediction
Middleweight (185lbs): Uriah Hall vs. Anderson Silva – Hall via KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva Main Card Predictions
Featherweight (145lbs): Andre Fili vs. Bryce Mitchell – Fili via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Kevin Holland vs. Makhmud Muradov – Holland via Decision
Heavyweight (265lbs): Greg Hardy vs. Maurice Greene – Hardy via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Bobby Green vs. Thiago Moisés – Green via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva Prelim Card Predictions
Lightweight (155lbs): Alexander Hernandez vs. Chris Gruetzemacher – Hernandez via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Adrian Yanez vs. Victor Rodriguez – Yanez via KO/TKO
Middleweight (185lbs): Sean Strickland vs. Jack Marshman – Strickland via Submission
Welterweight (170lbs): Cole Williams vs. Jason Witt – Witt via Submission
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Justin Ledet vs. Dustin Jacoby – Jacoby via Decision
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Cortney Casey vs. Priscila Cachoeira – Casey via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Miles Johns vs. Kevin Natividad – Natividad via KO/TKO
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.