UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Blaydes vs. Lewis

MMA handicapper Christian Broughton made over 11 units of profit last weekend, bringing his winning streak up to 4-straight events. Looking to round off the month on a high, he sets his sight on this Saturday’s card, UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis.
Christian Broughton
Thu, November 26, 5:47 PM

Ashlee Evans-Smith Moneyline @ -105

Bet of the Card: (2u) Ashlee Evans-Smith Moneyline @ -105 (to Return 3.9 Units)

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Norma Dumont

Preliminary Card Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:45 p.m. EST.

  • Norma Dumont has a 4-1 pro record, with her wins coming against fighters who hold a combined record of 23-21 (per Tapology.com).
  • Ashlee Evans-Smith has multiple UFC wins, with her most notable coming against the current No.10 ranked UFC Women’s Bantamweight fighter, Marion Reneau.

Ashlee Evans-Smith (AES) may not be a flawless fighter with a glowing record, but she has shown that she can hang at the UFC level (pictured below fighting Ketlen Vieira), which is yet to be seen from her opponent this weekend, Norma Dumont.

Perhaps I could be sleeping on Dumont’s ability a little, but her 4-career wins have come against seriously low-level competition, and her last fight was a round 1 TKO stoppage loss to Megan Anderson in her UFC debut. Between her five fights, there’s extremely limited footage of her, and from what we’ve seen in her bout with Anderson, it doesn’t look like we’d be able to find much to praise her for anyway. Dumont seems slow on the feet, and even though she looks to hold some strength in the clinch, it doesn’t appear to be enough to make up for her lack of technique in her wrestling.

I expect AES to out-box her standing with increased speed and volume, and also to out-manoeuvre her in grappling situations, with her being able to gain and maintain top position for extended periods. Dumont may be a danger on the mat, depending upon her submission grappling credentials, but with her likely assuming bottom position in this fight, it’ll be difficult for her to seriously threaten AES submissions.

All things considered, I’ve seen little to suggest how Dumont could be lined this closely in this fight, let alone as the betting favorite! Take Ashlee Evans-Smith here on the moneyline, she should out-points Dumont to win a decision, but a late finish could be on the cards should Dumont’s gas tank fail her.

(1u) Parlay: Gina Mazany Moneyline (-133) + Curtis Blaydes Moneyline (-333) for +127 (to Return 2.275 Units)

1st Leg of Parlay: Gina Mazany Moneyline @ -133

Additional Prop Bet: (0.5u) FOXBET “Bet Boost”: Gina Mazany to Win in Rounds 1-3 @ +360 (to Return 2.3 Units)

Gina Mazany vs. Rachael Ostovich

Preliminary Card Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:45 p.m. EST.

  • Gina Mazany will benefit from a 3-inch height (5’6” vs. 5’3”) and 6-inch reach advantage (68” vs. 62”) in this fight (per UFCStats.com).
  • Rachael Ostovich is 4-5 as a pro in MMA, which I believes makes her just 1 of 2 active fighters in the UFC with a below .500 record (the other being kickboxing legend, Gökhan Saki (1-2) (per Tapology.com).

2020 has been a weird year, and it just got that bit weirder… I’m betting Gina Mazany.

Mazany has had a rough go in the UFC, with her racking up just 1 win out of her 5 official UFC bouts. It doesn’t make for great reading, but for context, 3 of her 4 losses saw her lined as a +400 (or greater) underdog (per Tapology.com), against fighters who were considered to be top prospects. Rachael Ostovich on the other hand, is 1-2 in the UFC, but she was served up a softball win in her promotional debut, and since then, she’s gone on the get submitted in both of her subsequent fights (pictured below: Rachael Ostovich just prior to getting submitted by Paige VanZant).

I think many people see the underwhelming performances these two have put on in the past and think that just because they’re not elite, they must be pretty evenly matched, but I have to disagree. Mazany is the more experienced and stronger fighter, with better hands and potentially better wrestling. I don’t necessarily see her completely dominating Ostovich in any of these areas, but I do see her having enough of an edge to win this fight fairly comfortably. It’s worth noting that all five of Ostovich’s pro losses have come inside the distance (2 via KO/TKO, 3 via submission) (per Sherdog.com), so there’s also the potential for Mazany to get a finish.

Take Gina Mazany as the opening leg of a two-fight parlay, and take her inside the distance prop for half a unit, I see some value at +360 given Ostovich’s tendency to get finished in defeat.

Gina Mazany ML @ -133

2nd Leg of Parlay: Curtis Blaydes Moneyline @ -333

Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis

Main Event Heavyweight (265lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:15 a.m. EST.

  • Curtis Blaydes (pictured below) ranks top amongst active UFC heavyweights (HW) for: Control Time (1:13:28), Control Time Percentage (58%), Top Position Time (59:44), Top Position Percentage (47.2%), Takedowns Landed (59 = most all-time for a HW), and Takedown Accuracy (55.7%) (minimum 5 UFC Fights) (per StatLeaders.UFC.com).

It’s pretty rare that I look at a chalky main event favorite and think “there’s clear value here”, but lo and behold, we’ve got Curtis Blaydes sitting at -333.

Blaydes is a phenomenal heavyweight talent, and the UFC really couldn’t have given his opponent, Derrick Lewis, any worse of a matchup. Blaydes is quick, energetic, and is often in constant pursuit of takedowns, whereas Lewis is typically slow, lackadaisical, and gives up a ton of takedowns. Lewis does have a mythical-like ability to get back up to his feet from off his back with little-to-no technique, but against a wrestler of Blaydes’ pedigree, even that should be stunted.

Derrick Lewis (pictured below) does of course yield great power in his hands, and with that comes a very real KO threat. That being said however, Curtis Blaydes does have a ridiculously good chin, as we’ve seen when he ate Mark Hunt’s best shots, and when he refused to go fully unconscious after taking multiple bombs from Francis N'Gannou.

You hate to say it, but ultimately, Derrick Lewis really does have a puncher’s chance here. I find it highly unlike that he can stop Blaydes’ takedowns for any prolonged period of time, and I can see him spending huge portions of rounds on his back, and that’s if he doesn’t get finished quickly. Lewis could of course catch him with something early, or even late, but his chances of doing so aren’t indicative of Blaydes being priced as cheaply as -333. Take Curtis Blaydes’ moneyline to close out the parlay and the main event, I see him getting this one done inside the distance, although a lopsided decision victory is also a very likely outcome.

Curtis Blaydes ML @ -333

Extra section:

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 

Event: UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis / UFC on ESPN 18 / UFC Vegas 15 / #UFCVegas15

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, November 28th, 2020

Start time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST, Prelims 7 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN2/ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis

 

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Full Fight Card Predictions:

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Main Event Prediction:

Heavyweight (265lbs): Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis – Blaydes via KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Main Card Predictions:

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Anthony Smith vs. Devin Clark – Smith via Decision

Heavyweight (265lbs): Josh Parisian vs. Parker Porter – Parisian via KO/TKO

Welterweight (170lbs): Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato – Baeza via KO/TKO

Featherweight (145lbs): Spike Carlyle vs. Bill Algeo – Carlyle via KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Prelim Card Predictions:

(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Norma Dumont – Evans-Smith via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Anderson dos Santos vs. Martin Day ­– dos Santos via KO/TKO

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Gina Mazany vs. Rachael Ostovich – Mazany via Submission

Featherweight (145lbs): Kai Kamaka III vs. Jonathan Pearce – Kamaka III via Decision

Flyweight (125lbs): Su Mudaerji vs. Malcolm Gordon – Mudaerji via KO/TKO

Bantamweight (135lbs): Luke Sanders vs. Nate Maness – Sanders via Decision

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Christian Broughton
ChrisRBroughton
A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.
Jan 2021
Record
Wins
1
Losses
2
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ROI
10%
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