UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Hermansson vs. Vettori
Bet of the Card: (2u) Over 2.5 Rounds @ -126 (to Return 3.587 Units)
(0.25u) Jack Hermansson via Round 1 Submission @ +1800 (to Return 4.75 Units)
Main Event Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:15 a.m. EST.
- Marvin Vettori (pictured below) has been to a decision in 6 of his 7 UFC bouts.
- Vettori has 6 combined amateur and pro losses, all of which have come via decision (per Tapology.com).
My bet of the card for this week is on the main event to go over 2.5 rounds (to reach 2 minutes and 31 seconds of round 3).
This line looks off to me. Hermansson has only been finished in the UFC over the past few years by fighters who have serious fight ending power (Jared Cannonier and Thiago Santos), and Vettori has never been finished, period. Vettori has only 2 KO/TKO wins on his record, both coming against low-level competition on the European regional scene, and inside the UFC, he’s yet to show us that he’s at all capable of KO’ing top level fighters.
The fight could get a bit dicey if it hits the mat, as both fighters yield a strong top game and submission ability, but barring another insanely slick Hermansson submission in the first (as he did to both Kelvin Gastelum (pictured below) and David Branch), then I’d feel pretty confident that this one should just amble over the 2.5 round mark.
All things considered, I don’t feel either guy has the power to compromise the other on the feet, at least not in the opening couple rounds, whilst they’re still fresh. And on the ground, I feel both fighters will be able to nullify the other’s offense for the most part, although there are concerns there with Hermansson’s ability to snap up a submission early. I expect plenty of range striking in this one, with Vettori engaging in clinches along the fence, which should result in a lot of time being drained off the clock. Bet this one to go over 2.5 rounds for 2 units, and take a small 0.25 unit hedge on Hermansson via round 1 submission, just to cover us against the most likely way this fight would end early.
(1.5u) Cody Durden Moneyline @ +156 (to Return 3.84 Units)
Preliminary Card Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:45 p.m. EST.
• Jimmy Flick has 5 career losses, 4 of which have come via KO/TKO (per Tapology.com).
Jimmy “The Brick” Flick enters this fight off the back of a very impressive showing on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS). In his DWCS fight, he showcased slick sweeps, clever ground transitions, and a relentless desire to pursuit submissions, all of which added up and culminated in him locking in a third-round arm triangle choke over the then undefeated, Nate Smith. There’s no mistaking that Flick gave a great account of himself and his skill set in that fight, but I think we didn’t see enough resistance put up against him, and it’s resulted in him being an unjustified, near -200 favorite for his UFC debut.
Cody Durden has good wrestling under his belt, and he can do work on the feet too (pictured below: landing a jab on Chris Gutierrez). He’s been training over at American Top Team (ATT) Florida for this fight, and although it’s been a recent move from ATT Atlanta, it should still do wonders for his game, especially when considering some of the talented fighters they have over there within the smaller weight classes.
I see Durden being able to stop Flick’s takedowns early, and in doing so, it’ll allow him to keep the fight standing and out-land Flick with strikes. Jimmy Flick has shown a susceptibility to getting hurt on the feet in past fights, and I could definitely see it happening again here against Durden. Should Durden not be able to finish Flick, that wouldn’t bother me too much, as I think he’s the more likely fighter to claim a decision, largely due to his edge in striking, and Flick’s typical submission-or-bust approach. Take Cody Durden to win here, I think you could argue he should be the favorite in this fight, so there’s definitely value on him here as a dog.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori / UFC on ESPN 19 / UFC Vegas 16 / #UFCVegas16
Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date: Saturday, December 5th, 2020
Start time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST, Prelims 7 p.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN2/ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori Full Fight Card Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori Main Event Prediction
Middleweight (185lbs): Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori – Hermansson via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori Main Card Predictions
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Ovince St. Preux vs. Jamahal Hill – St. Preux via Submission
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Montana De La Rosa vs. Taila Santos – Santos via Decision
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Roman Dolidze vs. John Allan -Dolidze via Submission
Featherweight (145lbs): Movsar Evloev vs. Nate Landwehr – Evloev via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori Prelim Card Predictions
Heavyweight (265lbs): Gian Villante vs. Jake Collier – Villante via KO/TKO
Lightweight (155lbs): Matt Wiman vs. Jordan Leavitt – Leavitt via Decision
Flyweight (125lbs): Cody Durden vs. Jimmy Flick – Durden via KO/TKO
Featherweight (145lbs): Damon Jackson vs. Ilia Topuria – Topuria via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Gabriel Benítez vs. Justin Jaynes – Benítez via KO/TKO
Bantamweight (135lbs): Louis Smolka vs. Jose Alberto Quiñonez – Quiñonez via Decision
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.