Dec 10, 4:37am | 4 min read

UFC 256 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

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Expert MMA handicapper Christian Broughton has profited on each of the last 6 UFC events. Make sure to check out his picks for this weekend’s highly-anticipated PPV card, UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno.

ANALYSIS

Bet of the Card: (2.5u) Fight Goes The Distance @ +130 (to Return 5.75 Units)

Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba

Preliminary Card Women’s Strawweight (115lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:15 p.m. EST.

Both Dern and Jandiroba have never suffered a stoppage loss in MMA, and neither has ever won a fight via KO/TKO (per Tapology.com).

Dern vs. Jandiroba looks to be a great spot for an over. Both ladies are elite level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) practitioners, and neither has been compromised in a fight, or at least not enough to result in them losing inside the distance.

Dern (pictured above) will have the BJJ edge given her legitimately world class submission wrestling pedigree, and Jandiroba will be the noticeably better all-round wrestler. This should translate into a fight that could prove dangerous for Jandiroba if she’s taken down onto her back, but with her wrestling advantage, it should result in her being able to avoid this, and in turn, lead to her dictating where the fight takes place.

Typically, when grappler vs. grappler matchups play out, it often results in a striking affair, and I could definitely see that happing in this fight, at least for a couple minutes of each round. Outside of that, there should be plenty of clinch grappling along the cage, and should the fight hit the mat, I expect Jandiroba (pictured below: taking down former UFC Women’s Strawweight Champion, Carla Esparza) being the fighter on top, thus meaning that she’d be less susceptible to getting submitted.

Ultimately, I see a lot of ways for this fight to stall out with not much danger of a finish. It goes without saying that Dern is obviously a massive threat on the ground, significantly more so that Jandiroba, but given both these women are elite grapplers, that should go a long way in keeping each of them out of danger from the other, especially in situations where Dern is on the bottom. This could turn out to be a bit of a nail bitter depending upon how much Jandiroba wants to tangle on the ground with Dern, but there’s clear value on the “fight to go the distance” prop at plus-money.

(1.5u) Under 2.5 Rounds @ -150 (to Return 2.5 Units)

(0.5u) Peter Barrett Moneyline @ +310 (to Return 2.05 Units)

(0.25u) Peter Barrett via KO/TKO or DQ @ +1000 (to Return 2.75 Units)

Chase Hooper vs. Peter Barrett

Preliminary Card Opener – Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 6:45 p.m. EST.

Across Chase Hooper’s 2 UFC fights and 1 Dana White’s Contender Series fight, he’s only landed 1 takedown, which works out to a takedown accuracy of just 12% (per UFCStats.com).

I see value in a few lines on this fight, and they all coincide quite nicely.

Chase Hooper is still super green, despite him already amassing 11 pro fights at just 21 years of age. The fact that he’s in the UFC right now speaks volumes about his character and potential, but that doesn’t always translate into results. Hooper yields a sneaky and unorthodox ground game, but his wrestling and striking leaves a lot to be desired, and that was there for all to be seen when Alex Caceres beat him from pillar to post for 15 minutes in his last fight (pictured below).

“Slippery Pete” Barrett (pictured below on the left) is nothing special, and if it weren’t for him being a late notice replacement this year, he likely wouldn’t be in the UFC right now. With that being said however, he’s still got plenty of wrinkles to his game, wrinkles that Chase Hooper is yet to develop. Barrett is the more technical and experienced on the feet, and although his wrestling isn’t great, it could look lightyears ahead of Hooper’s wrestling. He’s by no means a sure thing, but if he’s able to stop Hoopers sloppy takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, we could see him doing some serious damage to the 21-year-old, much like Caceres did.

Of course, there has to be some trepidation with betting Barrett, otherwise he wouldn’t be a 3-to-1 ‘dog in this fight. The cause for concern being his ground game. When on the mat, he’s previously looked like a fish out of water, and he can often put himself in bad spots, thus leaving himself open to submissions, something that Hooper will most-definitely take advantage of.

So, what are my conclusions? Well, Pete Barrett is undoubtedly the value side of the moneyline, even if there’s a clear hole in his game for Hooper to exploit. Should this fight go to the mat, I’d expect Hooper to be able to secure a finish, and should it stay standing, I think there will definitely be a shot for Barrett to put a hurting on Hooper, potentially leading to a KO/TKO victory. For these reasons, I like taking a half unit on Peter Barrett’s moneyline, with a bigger bet on the under 2.5 rounds prop, so to cover us in an event where Hooper submits him. On top of this, I’m also playing a small quarter unit bet on Barrett’s KO/TKO/DQ prop, as the number’s a little too large, and it’s a nice complementary piece for the other bets we have. Obviously, if Hooper wins in the final 2.5 minutes of the fight, or claims a decision, we’ll be left high and dry, but that’s all part of the game, and I love the coverage these bets give us, especially on what should be a frantic and volatile affair.

(1.1u) Fight Starts Round 3 - Yes @ -110 (to Return 2.1 Units)

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno

Main Event UFC Men’s Flyweight (125lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:15 a.m. EST.

Neither Figueiredo nor Moreno has ever been finished in a pro MMA bout.
6 of Brandon Moreno’s last 7 fights have gone into the third round, and 5 of those fights have gone on to a decision (per Sherdog.com).

Deiveson Figueiredo is a seriously dangerous man and he’s proved that with four consecutive early finishes (pictured below: him choking out Joseph Benavidez in their rematch). It’s been an admirable run for “The God of War”, and although I suspect he’ll be able to continue his winning streak, I’m not sure he’ll be able to do so in such an emphatic fashion against Brandon Moreno.

Moreno (pictured below) is as tough as a $2 steak, yet he’s maturing like a fine wine, despite only just stepping into the prime of his career at 27 years of age. He’s been in a couple wars in his time and although he’s taken damage, he’s always worn it well and fought through with heart and a willingness to battle adversity. Complementing his mentality to fighting, is his ever-improving skillset. He was once known for being largely a BJJ specialist, but over the past couple years, his striking and wrestling have rounded out to make him a fierce opponent for wherever the fight takes place.

Figueiredo has the power to put away anyone at 125lbs, and he’s got slick submissions that can be just as effective, but against someone as durable and submission savvy as Moreno, I tend to lean towards this fight going into the mid-to-later rounds. Moreno does pose as a finishing threat as well , but given that he’s been unable to put away significantly less hardened and skilled fighters than Fig’, that too would lead me to look towards the over.

All in all, I wouldn’t be super shocked if Figueiredo were to body bag Moreno in the opening couple rounds, but considering that he’s previously been unable to put away fighters like Jussier Formiga and Jared Brooks, with the added recency-bias of his current run, then I do believe there is value to be found in fading the early finish. Take the “Fight to Start Round 3 – Yes” prop at -110, it’ll likely be tense watch, but I see Moreno’s toughness dragging this one past the 10-minute mark.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno / #UFC256

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, December 12th, 2020

Start time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST, Prelims 8 p.m. EST. Early Prelims: 6:30 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on PPV, Prelims on ESPN 2/ESPN+, Early Prelims on ESPN 2/ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC 256: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno