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UFC 257 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Poirier vs. McGregor 2

MMA handicapper Christian Broughton posted an ROI of 23.3% last year, bringing in over 43 units of profit. Looking to continue his winning ways, he sets his sight on the highly-anticipated, UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2.
Christian Broughton
Thu, January 14, 8:25 AM

Conor McGregor by KO/TKO or DQ @ -138

Bet of the Card: (2u) Conor McGregor by KO/TKO or DQ @ -138 (to Return 3.454 Units)

Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 2

Main Event Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:15 a.m. EST.

  • 19 of Conor McGregor’s 22 wins have come via KO/TKO (per Tapology.com).

This fight is a rematch over 6 years in the making. The last time these two met, Conor knocked out Dustin inside of 2 minutes. It feels like a lifetime ago since then, and both fighters have gone through a great deal of development, but I still see a clear path for McGregor to come out on top again.

His speed and timing has never left him, and combined with his laser like precision, that should be the key to getting the job done a second time around. Poirier has of course progressed a lot since their first encounter, even more so than McGregor, but that’s not to say that he’s eclipsed the level of striking defense needed to survive against the Irishman’s one-shot knockout power. His guard is still pretty sloppy, and he’s got a tendency to stand and trade with other fighters, neither of which are a good idea against an opponent who is renowned for his accuracy, good chin, and fight ending power.

There has to be a little concern with Conor barely having fought since he became “Double Champ” back in 2016, but if his Instagram is anything to go by, then there should be no doubts about his physical condition coming into this fight. He looks to be training regularly and carrying the most muscle mass we’ve ever seen on him, which is never a bad sign when you’re betting on that fighter to win via KO.

Poirier does have paths to win this fight, and the most likely would either be from a grappling-heavy gameplan, or by out-striking McGregor in the later rounds to win a decision. With this being said, Poirier has rarely utilized his wrestling consistently throughout fights, and I’m not sure he’s got the durability to withstand the early onslaught of McGregor.

I like McGregor to win this fight, but there’s no mistaking that there’s significantly more value on him winning via KO/TKO/DQ at -138, as opposed to him winning on the moneyline at -250. The reasoning for this is that he’s always been a largely finish-or-bust fighter, and although he is live to win a decision, I just don’t think the odds are truly reflective enough to warrant paying the extra juice. Take Conor McGregor to win via KO/TKO or DQ, I see it being another short night for The Notorious one.

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(2u) Two-Leg Parlay: Rountree vs. Prachnio - Under 1.5 Rounds (-143) + Eye vs. Calderwood - Over 2.5 Rounds (-345) for +119 (to Return 4.38 Units)

1st Leg of Parlay: Under 1.5 Rounds @ -143

Khalil Rountree vs. Marcin Prachnio

Preliminary Card Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:15 p.m. EST.

  • 6 of Khalil Rountree’s last 8 fights have ended inside the first round.
  • Marcin Prachnio has lost via round 1 KO/TKO in all of his last 3 bouts.

Kicking off the two-leg UFC 257 parlay is the under 1.5 rounds prop on the Rountree vs. Prachnio fight.

Both guys have a propensity to either win fights via stoppage or lose fights via stoppage. Their combined win total is 23, with 18 of those wins coming inside the distance (17 KO/TKO, 1 Submission). They also have a combined 10 losses, 8 of which came via stoppage (6 KO/TKO, 2 Submissions) (per Tapology.com). These stats aren’t always a true indicator for how a fight might play out, but it doesn’t take a seasoned combat sports analyst to see that this should be an extremely aggressive and volatile fight.

Rountree packs some devastating power into everything he throws, and although Prachnio hasn’t shown it in his dismal 3-fight UFC stretch, he also yields the power to put away Rountree.

There are avenues for this to go over 1.5 rounds, but with both guys being hostile strikers, this should prove to be a fast and wild fight. I’ve got Rountree getting the win here via KO inside the first few minutes, but the good thing about the under 1.5 rounds prop is that it covers us for the beginning of the second round, or should Prachnio pull off the upset and get an early finish.

Take under 1.5 rounds in this fight, -143 is a seriously good line, and it could easily close at around -200.

2nd Leg of Parlay: Over 2.5 Rounds @ -345

Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood

Main Card Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:15 p.m. EST.

  • Jessica Eye has been to a decision in 9 of her last 10 fights.
  • 4 of Joanne Calderwood’s last 6 fights have gone the distance (per Tapology.com).

It isn’t often I’ll eat the chalk on something greater than -300 in MMA, but I absolutely love the over 2.5 rounds prop in this fight.

Both Eye and Calderwood are well-rounded, have decent cardio, and are durable as hell. I could see this being a very scrappy fight with plenty of striking, both at distance and in close, along with a load of clinching up against the cage, as well as some work on the ground. I don’t fear for either woman KO’ing the other standing, given that they only have one knockout loss between them. And as for the ground, I do think that Eye has the ability to submit Calderwood, but with her having just one career win via submission, it certainly wouldn’t deter me from betting the over.

Expect this fight to be hard fought and gritty, with each fighter tested in all aspects of MMA. It’s seriously difficult to call a winner as Eye is the better grappler, but Calderwood should be able to land with more volume, so just play it safe and take the over.

Take over 2.5 rounds in this fight to wrap up the parlay, barring anything crazy happening, this one should grind its way to the judges’ scorecards.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 

Event: UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 / UFC 257: McGregor vs. Poirier 2 / #UFC257

Location & Venue: Flash Forum (UFC Fight Island), Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Date: Saturday, January 23rd, 2021

Start time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST, Prelims: 8 p.m. EST, Early Prelims: 6:15 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on PPV, Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+, Early Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC 257: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 2

 

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 Full Fight Card Predictions:

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 Main Event Prediction:

Lightweight (155lbs): Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier – McGregor via KO/TKO

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 Main Card Predictions:

Lightweight (155lbs): Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandlers – Hooker via KO/TKO

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Jessica Eye vs. Joanne Calderwood – Eye via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Shane Burgos vs. Hakeem Dawodu – Burgos via Decision

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas – Ribas via Decision

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 Prelim Card Predictions:

Middleweight (185lbs): Brad Tavares vs. Antônio Carlos Júnior – Carlos Junior via Submission

Lightweight (155lbs): Arman Tsarukyan vs. Nasrat Haqparast - ­Tsarukyan via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Ottman Azaitar vs. Matt Frevola – Azaitar via KO/TKO

Bantamweight (135lbs): Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Sergey Morozov – Nurmagomedov via Decision

Flyweight (125lbs): Amir Albazi vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov – Zhumagulov via Decision

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Khalil Rountree vs. Marcin Prachnio – Roundtree via KO/TKO

Middleweight (185lbs): Andrew Sanchez vs. Makhmud Muradov – Muradov via KO/TKO

(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Julianna Peña vs. Sara McMann – McMann via Decision

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

 

FAQ:

What time does the McGregor fight start?

The main card for UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 starts at 10 p.m. ET, with McGregor vs. Poirier expected to start at around midnight ET.

How to watch the McGregor fight?

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 is available on PPV, with the prelims and early prelims available on ESPN and ESPN+ respectively.

How tall is Conor McGregor?

Conor McGregor is 5 ft 9 in tall, or 175 cm. He’ll be taking on Dustin Poirier who is also 5 ft 9 in tall.

Christian Broughton
ChrisRBroughton
A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.
Jan 2021
Record
Wins
1
Losses
2
Push
0
ROI
10%
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