Odds format
Sign Up
Betslip

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Blaydes vs. Lewis

MMA handicapper Christian Broughton is up over 9 units across this month’s two UFC events. Looking to add to his February haul, he now focuses on this weekend’s card, UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis.
Christian Broughton
Wed, February 17, 12:57 PM

Jared Gordon Moneyline @ +116

Bet of the Card: (2u) Jared Gordon Moneyline @ +116 (to Return 4.32 Units)

Jared Gordon vs. Danny Chavez

Preliminary Card Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:20 p.m. EST.

  • Although Jared Gordon now fights at featherweight, he still ranks amongst active UFC lightweights: 5th for Control Time Percentage (44.1%), 2nd for Significant Strike Accuracy (54.1%), 3rd for Strikes Landed per Minute (6.08), and 4th for Striking Differential (1.74) (minimum 5 UFC Fights) (per StatLeaders.UFC.com).

I know people have been looking to fade Jared Gordon after some of his recent performances, but I don’t see Danny Chavez as the guy you want to be fading him with (or at least not as a favorite).

Jared Gordon is a well-rounded fighter with strong grappling and heavy hands. He has shown some chin issues in the past, but he’s only really been put away by some of the most skilled fighters at lightweight (Charles Oliveira, Joaquim Silva, and Carlos Diego Ferreira).

Danny Chavez isn’t a young prospect, he’s 33 years old and is only making his second UFC appearance. He’s yet to beat anyone who I’d consider to be UFC calibre, and he’s generally a decision fighter. He does yield some okay takedown defense, but he’s yet to showcase this against someone with Gordon’s level of wrestling. Chavez does have some solid leg kicks and a decent gas tank, but I’m struggling to see what aside from that, warrants him being the betting favorite against an established guy like Gordon. This could be a bit dicey on the feet, but I see Gordon as the better all-round fighter, and he’s got strong paths to win this fight.

I’m betting Jared Gordon’s moneyline for two units, I think he takes this via a decision, but he’s got the skills to get this done inside the distance if Chavez gives him the opportunity.

Fight to Start Round 3 – Yes @ -106

(1.5u) Fight to Start Round 3 – Yes @ -106 (to Return 2.915 Units)

Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis

Main Event Heavyweight (265lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:15 p.m. EST.

  • Curtis Blaydes (pictured below) ranks top amongst active UFC heavyweights (HW) for: Control Time (1:13:28), Control Time Percentage (58%), Top Position Time (59:44), Top Position Percentage (47.2%), Takedowns Landed (59 = most all-time for a HW), and Takedown Accuracy (55.7%) (minimum 5 UFC Fights) (per StatLeaders.UFC.com).

Blaydes is a phenomenal heavyweight talent, and the UFC really couldn’t have given his opponent, Derrick Lewis, any worse of a matchup. Blaydes is quick, energetic, and is often in constant pursuit of takedowns, whereas Lewis is slow, lackadaisical, and gives up a ton of takedowns. Lewis does have a mythical-like ability to get back up to his feet from off his back with little-to-no technique, but against a wrestler of Blaydes’ pedigree, even that should be stunted.

Derrick Lewis (pictured below) does of course yield great power in his hands, and with that comes a very real KO threat. That being said, Curtis Blaydes does have a ridiculously good chin, as we’ve seen when he ate Mark Hunt’s best shots, and when he refused to go fully unconscious after taking multiple bombs from Francis N'Gannou.

You hate to say it, but ultimately, Derrick Lewis really does have a puncher’s chance here. I find it highly unlike that he can stop Blaydes’ takedowns and I can see him spending huge portions of rounds on his back. This is a heavyweight tilt, so of course, an early finish is always a possibility. But with Lewis’ ability to take damage on bottom, and Blaydes’ calculated and energy-sapping top game, I see this one dragging over until at least the third round, before Blaydes either gets the finish, or wins a lopsided decision.

For this reason, I’m taking the “Fight to Start Round 3 – Yes” prop at near-even money, as I think this is bettable up to around -138.

Andrei Arlovski Moneyline @ +210

(1u) Andrei Arlovski Moneyline @ +210 (to Return 3.1 Units)

Andrei Arlovski vs. Tom Aspinall

Preliminary Card Heavyweight (265lbs) Headliner – Approx. Start Time: 7:40 p.m. EST.

  • Andrei Arlovski has been an underdog in all of his last 4 fights. In that span, he’s gone 3-1, with his most recent performances seeing him cash as a +305 and +175 underdog (versus Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins, respectively) (per Tapology.com).

Andrei Arlovski is a legend of the game, and even at 42 years of age, he’s still getting me to lay my hard-earned money on him.

Once known for his fast, slug-it-out style, he’s now one of the most patient and calculated fighters in all of heavyweight MMA. He manages distance impeccably well, and regardless of his opponent’s foot work and speed, he typically finds a way to lull them into a one-for-one striking battle, a battle where he actually edges on volume and precision. It’s by no means a sure-fire route to victory, but providing he’s able to avoid his opponent’s heavy shots early, it puts him in great stead to sneak his way to a decision victory.

Tom Aspinall is the latest hot prospect in the UFC’s heavyweight decision. He has a large 6’5” frame, and boasts a pair of fast, heavy hands. On top of this, he’s also said to have a tricky ground game, although I don’t think we’ll get to see much of that in this particular fight. I don’t actually have much to fault Aspinall on, except from the very unimpressive level of competition that he’s beaten up until now. That’s not to say that he’s not a top talent, but until we’re to see him make the jump up in competition, I don’t think we should be seeing him as this big of a favorite against someone of Arlovski’s ability.

Take Andrei “The Pitbull” Arlovski’s moneyline for a unit, if he’s able to avoid the early KO threat of Aspinall, he should look like great value to make this fight close and claim it on the scorecards.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 

Event: UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis / UFC on ESPN+ 43 / UFC Fight Night 185 / UFC Vegas 19 / #UFCVegas19

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, February 20th, 2021

Start time: Main Card: 8 p.m. EST, Prelims 5 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis

 

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Main Event Prediction

Heavyweight (265lbs): Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis – Blaydes via KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Main Card Predictions

(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Ketlen Vieira vs. Yana Kunitskaya – Vieira via Submission

Featherweight (145lbs): Charles Rosa vs. Darrick Minner – Rosa via Submission

Heavyweight (265lbs): Alexey Oleinik vs. Chris Daukaus – Oleinik via Submission

Middleweight (185lbs): Phil Hawes vs. Nassourdine Imavov – Imavov via Submission

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Prelim Card Predictions

Heavyweight (265lbs): Andrei Arlovski vs. Tom Aspinall – Arlovski via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Jared Gordon vs. Danny Chavez – Gordon via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Drakkar Klose vs. Luis Pena – Klose via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Eddie Wineland vs. John Castañeda – Wineland via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Julian Erosa vs. Nate Landwehr – Landwehr via KO/TKO

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Shana Dobson vs. Casey O'Neill – Dobson via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Chas Skelly vs. Jamall Emmers – Emmers via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Aiemann Zahabi vs. Drako Rodriguez – Rodriguez via Decision

Heavyweight (265lbs): Sergey Spivak vs. Jared Vanderaa – Spivak via Submission

Featherweight (145lbs): Rafael Alves vs. Pat Sabatini – Alves via Decision

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Christian Broughton
ChrisRBroughton
A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.
Jan 2021
Record
Wins
1
Losses
2
Push
0
ROI
10%
0Betslip

Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.