Bet of the Card: (2u) Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision @ +120 (to Return 4.4 Units)
Preliminary Card Opener - Welterweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 5:15 p.m. EST.
- Jason Witt has only gone to a decision 6 times in his 24-fight pro career, with all 6 of his losses coming via finish (4 KO/TKO, 2 Submissions) (per Tapology.com).
- Matthew Semelsberger has gone to a decision just 2 times in his 9-fight pro career, and both his 2 pro losses, and his 2 amateur losses, have come via finish (per Tapology.com).
Last time Jason Witt fought, he finished Cole Williams inside two rounds. My bet of the week for that card was on that fight not to go the distance at +140, and I’m going to be taking that prop again here at +120.
This matchup looks like a prime spot for a bet on the under. Jason Witt is the significantly better grappler, although he is prone to getting caught (pictured below: Jason Witt getting KO/TKO’ed by Takashi Sato in under a minute). And Matthew Semelsberger is a fairly decent striker, yet has deficiencies on the mat and fades later in fights.
If Jason Witt gets this fight to the mat for durations, I see plenty of opportunities for him to secure a submission finish, and when the fight is on the feet, Semelsberger might only need to land one or two shots to put Witt away.
There is plenty of room for this to go to the scorecards, should Semelsberger defend well off his back, but at anything better than -125, I just feel inclined to take the shot, on what is essentially a regional-level fight to end inside the distance.
(2u) Under 1.5 Rounds @ -133 (to Return 3.5 Units)
(1u) Misha Cirkunov Moneyline @ -120 (to Return 1.833 Units)
(0.5u) Misha Cirkunov via Round 1 Submission @ +550 (to Return 3.25 Units)
Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:15 p.m. EST.
- All of Misha Cirkunov’s last 6 fights have ended inside the first round.
- 9 of Ryan Spann’s last 11 fights have gone under 1.5 rounds, with 8 coming in the first round (per Tapology.com).
I couldn’t quite decide upon one bet for this fight, so I’ve opted to cover a few different outcomes.
The under 1.5 rounds is a must play given Cirkunov’s aggressive fighting style. Spann doesn’t often push the action, but by having someone who drives forward like Cirkunov, it should force him to engage. Either guy has the power to put the other in serious trouble, yet with Cirkunov being the superior grappler, I can see him putting Spann on the mat and into all sorts of trouble.
Cirkunov lands on average 4.42 takedowns and attempts 2.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes (per UFCStats.com). These are insane stats! But more importantly, it shows that he has a gameplan and sticks to it. The opening minute of the fight will be intense and volatile, but should Cirkunov avoid the power of Spann and force the fight to the mat, I can see him securing a submission quite swiftly.
There is, of course, avenues for us to breakeven or make a loss with the spread of bets, but if Cirkunov can pull off the early win (preferably by submission), we’ll be cashing multiple value-bets.
(0.5u) Charles Jourdain via Submission @ +600 (to Return 3.5 Units)
Preliminary Card - Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:15 p.m. EST.
- 3 of Charles Jourdain’s 10 pro wins and 5 of his 8 amateur wins, have come via submission (per Tapology.com).
- Marcelo Rojo has 6 pro losses, with 4 coming by way of submission (per Tapology.com).
Charles Jourdain is largely recognized as a striker, but depending upon the opponent, he’s not adverse to changing his gameplan to become a grappler.
In his last fight against Josh Culibao, he had 3 submission attempts, and although he wasn’t successful in finding the finish, he wasn’t far off either. Culibao is by no means high-level opposition, but as opposed to Marcelo Rojo, he’s at least shown an ability to defend against submissions. As stated above, Rojo has lost 4 times via submission in his career, with 2 coming in just his last 5 fights.
Jourdain can’t be relied upon to chase a submission like a Damian Maia, but given his fight IQ and tendency to pursue grappling in favorable spots, you have to fancy him to do so at +600 against the UFC newcomer.
Main Event Pick: Leon Edwards -275 & Over 3.5 Rounds -240 (PASS)
Main Event - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:45 p.m. EST.
- Leon Edwards is on an 8-fight win streak, 6 of which have come via decision.
- Edwards and Muhammad combine for a UFC record of 19-5, with them going to a total of 18 decisions (that’s a rate of 75%).
I always aim to offer a bet on a card’s main event, but I just don’t see enough value to pull the trigger here.
Edwards is the rightful favorite, but at -275, I don’t really want to lay my money on it. He should have Muhammad out matched in all aspects, particularly the ones that Muhammad is strongest in, cardio, wrestling, and pressure fighting. Often this would call for a bet, especially considering that Muhammad doesn’t have serious fight ending ability. But given that Edwards hasn’t fought since Summer 2019, and that Muhammad has the momentum of a recent win-streak, I prefer to straight pass on this fight.
If you must have a bet on it, or you’re simply looking for a small parlay piece, I think Edwards is on the brink of playability at -275, although I prefer the over 3.5 rounds prop, which is in a similar range at -240.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad / UFC Fight Night 187 / UFC on ESPN+ 45 / UFC Vegas 21 / #UFCVegas21
Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date: Saturday, March 13th, 2021
Start time: Main Card: 8 p.m. EST, Prelims 5 p.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad Full Fight Card Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad Main Event Prediction
Welterweight (170lbs): Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad – Edwards via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad Main Card Predictions
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Misha Cirkunov vs. Ryan Spann – Cirkunov via Submission
Featherweight (145lbs): Dan Ige vs. Gavin Tucker – Ige via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Davey Grant vs. Jonathan Martinez – Martinez via KO/TKO
Flyweight (125lbs): Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape – Kape via KO/TKO
Middleweight (185lbs): Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart – Stewart via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad Prelim Card Predictions
(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder – Hill via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Charles Jourdain vs. Marcelo Rojo – Jourdain via Submission
Bantamweight (135lbs): Rani Yahya vs. Ray Rodriguez – Yahya via Submission
Lightweight (155lbs): Nasrat Haqparast vs. Rafa Garcia – Haqparast via Decision
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Cortney Casey vs. JJ Aldrich – Casey via Submission
(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Jinh Yu Frey vs. Gloria de Paula – de Paula via Decision
Welterweight (170lbs): Jason Witt vs. Matthew Semelsberger – Semelsberger via KO/TKO
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.