Edwards vs. Diaz Predictions: Early UFC 262 Preview

An early look at the UFC 262 co-main event between Nate Diaz and Leon Edwards
Brian Good
Mon, May 3, 10:57 AM EDT

Edwards vs. Diaz Predictions: Early UFC 262 Preview

We’re still a few weeks away from UFC 262, but the fight world is buzzing about what is expected to be a star-studded card. Headlining UFC 262 is Charles Oliveira, the submission specialist, as he takes on Michael Chandler in Oliveira vs. Chandler.

But, if we’re being completely honest, it’s the other co-main event that has everyone excited in Edwards vs. Diaz. That’s right, for the first time in 18 months, Nate Diaz is making his return to the octagon. Diaz is one of the most exciting and most popular fighters in the entire company and is sure to drive a ton of eyeballs to the fight.

Diaz’s opponent, Leon Edwards, is a force and overwhelming favorite. So, who is going to win Edwards vs. Diaz at UFC 262? Let’s take a look and go over some early Edwards vs. Diaz picks.

Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz Prediction

These are two fighters at very different points of their respective careers, and because of that the Edwards vs. Diaz odds are a bit skewed.

Leon Edwards is the No. 3 ranked welterweight in the entire world. If he is to beat Diaz at UFC 262, Leon Edwards could be in line for a shot at the best UFC fighter in the world, Kamaru Usman. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2015, when he fell via decision to Usman.

Edwards is a complete fighter, but doesn’t do anything at a true elite level. He’s a good striker, he’s good in contact and he can grapple. What Leon Edwards doesn’t do particularly well is finish fights.

Edwards is 18-3-0 and eight of those victories have come via decision, including five of his last six wins. His last time out in the octagon was ruled a no contest after an accidental eye poke rendered his opponent, Belal Muhammad, unable to continue fighting.

He is the better fighter here and shouldn’t have much trouble against Diaz. But what version of Nate Diaz will we see in Edwards vs. Diaz?

The last time we saw Nate Diaz in a UFC fight was 2019 as he took on Jorge Masvidal for the BMF belt. It was a massively entertaining slugfest, but in the end it was Masvidal that came out on top due to a doctor’s stoppage.

Now, just a few weeks away from Edwards vs. Diaz, the odds aren’t in his favour to get back to his winning ways.

I am pretty confident that Edwards will win this fight. Diaz isn’t the scrapper that he once was, despite being massively entertaining. But, I also am fairly confident that Edwards won’t finish Diaz.

In his career, Diaz has suffered one true KO/TKO and it came when a shin caught him square on the forehead during a high kick from Josh Thomson in 2013.

The man doesn’t quit. If I was going to bet on a finish it would be Diaz upsetting Edwards before the final bell.

We’re still a little far away to be giving out official picks as a lot of prop markets are yet to open. But the way I’m going to play it is by betting on Edwards to win via decision. His outright odds are too short to just take him to win at -440.

I’m extremely tempted to go with Diaz here as he’s one of my favorite fighters. But I think Edwards outlasts him in Edwards vs. Diaz at UFC 262.

Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz Pick

Edwards to win via Decision (Odds Pending)

Click here for full Edwards vs. Diaz odds

UFC 262 Expert Picks

This UFC 262 early preview is just a teaser. Make sure you check out our UFC picks section for the bestinsight around from Christian Broughton every week. Christian is one of the very best UFC handicappers in the business and always brings his unique perspective to the Octagon. Chrsitian's UFC picks go live every Wednesday. Be on the lookout this week for his UFC Fight Night picks and Predictions.

Nate Diaz Record

Below, find Nate Diaz's full professional MMA record

Res. Record Opponent Method Date Round Time
Loss 20–12 Jorge Masvidal TKO (doctor stoppage) November 2, 2019 3 05:00
Win 20–11 Anthony Pettis Decision (unanimous) August 17, 2019 3 05:00
Loss 19–11 Conor McGregor Decision (majority) August 20, 2016 5 05:00
Win 19–10 Conor McGregor Submission (rear-naked choke) March 5, 2016 2 04:12
Win 18–10 Michael Johnson Decision (unanimous) December 19, 2015 3 05:00
Loss 17–10 Rafael dos Anjos Decision (unanimous) December 13, 2014 3 05:00
Win 17–9 Gray Maynard TKO (punches) November 30, 2013 1 02:38
Loss 16–9 Josh Thomson TKO (head kick and punches) April 20, 2013 2 03:44
Loss 16–8 Benson Henderson Decision (unanimous) December 8, 2012 5 05:00
Win 16–7 Jim Miller Submission (guillotine choke) May 5, 2012 2 04:09
Win 15–7 Donald Cerrone Decision (unanimous) December 30, 2011 3 05:00
Win 14–7 Takanori Gomi Submission (armbar) September 24, 2011 1 04:27
Loss 13–7 Rory MacDonald Decision (unanimous) April 30, 2011 3 05:00
Loss 13–6 Dong Hyun Kim Decision (unanimous) January 1, 2011 3 05:00
Win 13–5 Marcus Davis Technical Submission (guillotine choke) August 28, 2010 3 04:02
Win 12–5 Rory Markham TKO (punches) March 27, 2010 1 02:47
Loss 11–5 Gray Maynard Decision (split) January 11, 2010 3 05:00
Win 11–4 Melvin Guillard Submission (guillotine choke) September 16, 2009 2 02:13
Loss 10–4 Joe Stevenson Decision (unanimous) June 20, 2009 3 05:00
Loss 10–3 Clay Guida Decision (split) January 31, 2009 3 05:00
Win 10–2 Josh Neer Decision (split) September 17, 2008 3 05:00
Win 9–2 Kurt Pellegrino Submission (triangle choke) April 2, 2008 2 03:06
Win 8–2 Alvin Robinson Submission (triangle choke) January 23, 2008 1 03:39
Win 7–2 Junior Assunção Submission (guillotine choke) September 19, 2007 1 04:10
Win 6–2 Manvel Gamburyan TKO (shoulder injury) June 23, 2007 2 00:20
Loss 5–2 Hermes França Submission (armbar) October 12, 2006 2 02:46
Win 5–1 Dennis Davis Submission (americana) August 12, 2006 1 02:00
Win 4–1 Joe Hurley Submission (triangle choke) June 15, 2006 2 02:03
Win 3–1 Gilbert Rael TKO (punches) May 5, 2006 1 03:35
Win 2–1 Tony Juares TKO (punches) March 10, 2006 1 03:23
Loss 1–1 Koji Oishi Decision (unanimous) August 27, 2005 3 05:00
Win 1–0 Alejandro Garcia Submission (triangle choke) October 21, 2004 3 02:17

Leon Edwards Record

Below, find Leon Edwards' full professional MMA record

Res. Record Opponent Method Date Round Time
NC 18–3 (1) Belal Muhammad NC (accidental eye poke) 13-Mar-21 2 00:18
Win 18–3 Rafael dos Anjos Decision (unanimous) 20-Jul-19 5 05:00
Win 17–3 Gunnar Nelson Decision (split) 16-Mar-19 3 05:00
Win 16–3 Donald Cerrone Decision (unanimous) 23-Jun-18 5 05:00
Win 15–3 Peter Sobotta TKO (punches) 17-Mar-18 3 04:59
Win 14–3 Bryan Barberena Decision (unanimous) 02-Sep-17 3 05:00
Win 13–3 Vicente Luque Decision (unanimous) 18-Mar-17 3 05:00
Win 12–3 Albert Tumenov Submission (rear-naked choke) 08-Oct-16 3 03:01
Win 11–3 Dominic Waters Decision (unanimous) 08-May-16 3 05:00
Loss 10–3 Kamaru Usman Decision (unanimous) 19-Dec-15 3 05:00
Win 10–2 Pawel Pawlak Decision (unanimous) 18-Jul-15 3 05:00
Win 9–2 Seth Baczynski KO (punches) 11-Apr-15 1 00:08
Loss 8–2 Cláudio Silva Decision (split) 08-Nov-14 3 05:00
Win 8–1 Shaun Taylor KO (punch) 13-Sep-14 3 03:30
Win 7–1 Wayne Murrie Submission (rear-naked choke) 05-May-14 3 03:13
Win 6–1 Wendle Lewis KO (punches) 14-Dec-13 1 01:20
Win 5–1 Adam Boussif Submission (arm-triangle choke) 13-Sep-13 1 02:10
Win 4–1 Jonathan Bilton TKO (knees) 01-Dec-12 2 01:11
Win 3–1 Craig White Technical Decision 03-Nov-12 2 05:00
Loss 2–1 Delroy McDowell DQ (illegal knee) 25-Feb-12 3 02:40
Win 2–0 Pawel Zwiefka Decision (unanimous) 19-Nov-11 3 05:00
Win 1–0 Damian Zlotnicki TKO (punches) 05-Jun-11 1 02:15
Brian Good
Brian is a sports journalist with close to ten years of experience in the business. A lifelong Philadelphia sports fan with a passion for the all things sports gambling.
Mar 2021

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