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An early look at the UFC 262 co-main event between Nate Diaz and Leon Edwards

Edwards vs. Diaz Predictions: Early UFC 262 Preview

We’re still a few weeks away from UFC 262, but the fight world is buzzing about what is expected to be a star-studded card. Headlining UFC 262 is Charles Oliveira, the submission specialist, as he takes on Michael Chandler in Oliveira vs. Chandler.

But, if we’re being completely honest, it’s the other co-main event that has everyone excited in Edwards vs. Diaz. That’s right, for the first time in 18 months, Nate Diaz is making his return to the octagon. Diaz is one of the most exciting and most popular fighters in the entire company and is sure to drive a ton of eyeballs to the fight.

Diaz’s opponent, Leon Edwards, is a force and overwhelming favorite. So, who is going to win Edwards vs. Diaz at UFC 262? Let’s take a look and go over some early Edwards vs. Diaz picks.

Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz Prediction

These are two fighters at very different points of their respective careers, and because of that the Edwards vs. Diaz odds are a bit skewed.

Leon Edwards is the No. 3 ranked welterweight in the entire world. If he is to beat Diaz at UFC 262, Leon Edwards could be in line for a shot at the best UFC fighter in the world, Kamaru Usman. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2015, when he fell via decision to Usman.

Edwards is a complete fighter, but doesn’t do anything at a true elite level. He’s a good striker, he’s good in contact and he can grapple. What Leon Edwards doesn’t do particularly well is finish fights.

Edwards is 18-3-0 and eight of those victories have come via decision, including five of his last six wins. His last time out in the octagon was ruled a no contest after an accidental eye poke rendered his opponent, Belal Muhammad, unable to continue fighting.

He is the better fighter here and shouldn’t have much trouble against Diaz. But what version of Nate Diaz will we see in Edwards vs. Diaz?

The last time we saw Nate Diaz in a UFC fight was 2019 as he took on Jorge Masvidal for the BMF belt. It was a massively entertaining slugfest, but in the end it was Masvidal that came out on top due to a doctor’s stoppage.

Now, just a few weeks away from Edwards vs. Diaz, the odds aren’t in his favour to get back to his winning ways.

I am pretty confident that Edwards will win this fight. Diaz isn’t the scrapper that he once was, despite being massively entertaining. But, I also am fairly confident that Edwards won’t finish Diaz.

In his career, Diaz has suffered one true KO/TKO and it came when a shin caught him square on the forehead during a high kick from Josh Thomson in 2013.

The man doesn’t quit. If I was going to bet on a finish it would be Diaz upsetting Edwards before the final bell.

We’re still a little far away to be giving out official picks as a lot of prop markets are yet to open. But the way I’m going to play it is by betting on Edwards to win via decision. His outright odds are too short to just take him to win at -440.

I’m extremely tempted to go with Diaz here as he’s one of my favorite fighters. But I think Edwards outlasts him in Edwards vs. Diaz at UFC 262.

Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz Pick

Edwards to win via Decision (Odds Pending)

Click here for full Edwards vs. Diaz odds

UFC 262 Expert Picks

This UFC 262 early preview is just a teaser. Make sure you check out our UFC picks section for the bestinsight around from Christian Broughton every week. Christian is one of the very best UFC handicappers in the business and always brings his unique perspective to the Octagon. Chrsitian's UFC picks go live every Wednesday. Be on the lookout this week for his UFC Fight Night picks and Predictions.

Nate Diaz Record

Below, find Nate Diaz's full professional MMA record

Loss20–12Jorge MasvidalTKO (doctor stoppage)November 2, 2019305:00
Win20–11Anthony PettisDecision (unanimous)August 17, 2019305:00
Loss19–11Conor McGregorDecision (majority)August 20, 2016505:00
Win19–10Conor McGregorSubmission (rear-naked choke)March 5, 2016204:12
Win18–10Michael JohnsonDecision (unanimous)December 19, 2015305:00
Loss17–10Rafael dos AnjosDecision (unanimous)December 13, 2014305:00
Win17–9Gray MaynardTKO (punches)November 30, 2013102:38
Loss16–9Josh ThomsonTKO (head kick and punches)April 20, 2013203:44
Loss16–8Benson HendersonDecision (unanimous)December 8, 2012505:00
Win16–7Jim MillerSubmission (guillotine choke)May 5, 2012204:09
Win15–7Donald CerroneDecision (unanimous)December 30, 2011305:00
Win14–7Takanori GomiSubmission (armbar)September 24, 2011104:27
Loss13–7Rory MacDonaldDecision (unanimous)April 30, 2011305:00
Loss13–6Dong Hyun KimDecision (unanimous)January 1, 2011305:00
Win13–5Marcus DavisTechnical Submission (guillotine choke)August 28, 2010304:02
Win12–5Rory MarkhamTKO (punches)March 27, 2010102:47
Loss11–5Gray MaynardDecision (split)January 11, 2010305:00
Win11–4Melvin GuillardSubmission (guillotine choke)September 16, 2009202:13
Loss10–4Joe StevensonDecision (unanimous)June 20, 2009305:00
Loss10–3Clay GuidaDecision (split)January 31, 2009305:00
Win10–2Josh NeerDecision (split)September 17, 2008305:00
Win9–2Kurt PellegrinoSubmission (triangle choke)April 2, 2008203:06
Win8–2Alvin RobinsonSubmission (triangle choke)January 23, 2008103:39
Win7–2Junior AssunçãoSubmission (guillotine choke)September 19, 2007104:10
Win6–2Manvel GamburyanTKO (shoulder injury)June 23, 2007200:20
Loss5–2Hermes FrançaSubmission (armbar)October 12, 2006202:46
Win5–1Dennis DavisSubmission (americana)August 12, 2006102:00
Win4–1Joe HurleySubmission (triangle choke)June 15, 2006202:03
Win3–1Gilbert RaelTKO (punches)May 5, 2006103:35
Win2–1Tony JuaresTKO (punches)March 10, 2006103:23
Loss1–1Koji OishiDecision (unanimous)August 27, 2005305:00
Win1–0Alejandro GarciaSubmission (triangle choke)October 21, 2004302:17

Leon Edwards Record

Below, find Leon Edwards' full professional MMA record

NC18–3 (1)Belal MuhammadNC (accidental eye poke)13-Mar-21200:18
Win18–3Rafael dos AnjosDecision (unanimous)20-Jul-19505:00
Win17–3Gunnar NelsonDecision (split)16-Mar-19305:00
Win16–3Donald CerroneDecision (unanimous)23-Jun-18505:00
Win15–3Peter SobottaTKO (punches)17-Mar-18304:59
Win14–3Bryan BarberenaDecision (unanimous)02-Sep-17305:00
Win13–3Vicente LuqueDecision (unanimous)18-Mar-17305:00
Win12–3Albert TumenovSubmission (rear-naked choke)08-Oct-16303:01
Win11–3Dominic WatersDecision (unanimous)08-May-16305:00
Loss10–3Kamaru UsmanDecision (unanimous)19-Dec-15305:00
Win10–2Pawel PawlakDecision (unanimous)18-Jul-15305:00
Win9–2Seth BaczynskiKO (punches)11-Apr-15100:08
Loss8–2Cláudio SilvaDecision (split)08-Nov-14305:00
Win8–1Shaun TaylorKO (punch)13-Sep-14303:30
Win7–1Wayne MurrieSubmission (rear-naked choke)05-May-14303:13
Win6–1Wendle LewisKO (punches)14-Dec-13101:20
Win5–1Adam BoussifSubmission (arm-triangle choke)13-Sep-13102:10
Win4–1Jonathan BiltonTKO (knees)01-Dec-12201:11
Win3–1Craig WhiteTechnical Decision03-Nov-12205:00
Loss2–1Delroy McDowellDQ (illegal knee)25-Feb-12302:40
Win2–0Pawel ZwiefkaDecision (unanimous)19-Nov-11305:00
Win1–0Damian ZlotnickiTKO (punches)05-Jun-11102:15

Article Author


Brian is a sports journalist with close to ten years of experience in the business. A lifelong Philadelphia sports fan with a passion for all things sports gambling.


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