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UFC expert James Lynch breaks down his prediction and analysis of Adesanya vs. Vettori 2.
ANALYSIS

Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Prediction: UFC 263 Picks & Odds

The UFC has been rolling out some insane cards lately and UFC 263 is no different, headlined by the Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 main event. This is the first time in Israel Adesanya’s career that he’ll have to come off a loss after suffering his first ever defeat, at light heavyweight against Jan Blachowicz. Now, he’s back to middleweight where he’s unbeaten and holds the belt.

Saturday’s Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori fight will be the second between the two. Adesanya won the first meeting in 2018, but these are two vastly different fighters this time around.

So, in order to get you ready for Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 we have UFC expert James Lynch here, breaking down the fight and giving his awaited Adesanya vs. Vettori prediction.

Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Fight Preview

Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 Prediction

As James mentioned, Marvin Vettori hasn’t lost since his split decision loss to Israel Adesanya in 2018, but he also hasn’t fought any world beaters. This version of Adesanya will be far and away the best fighter he’s ever stepped into the octagon with.

The sportsbooks have Adesanya as a pretty sizable favorite, with his current best odds shortening all the way to -250 as of today. Meanwhile, Vettori sits at +225 at some sportsbooks. Either way, as James points out, Adesanya is in a class of his own and shouldn’t be troubled much by Vettori as they face off in Adesanya vs. Vettori 2.

James Lynch’s Adesnaya vs. Vettori Prediction

Prediction: Israel Adesanya ML @ -250 (Click to bet)

Adesanya vs. Vettori Odds

Like we broke down a bit above, Adesanya vs. Vettori odds give a sizeable advantage to the champion. Adesanya vs. Vettori odds pin Israel Adesanya as a -250 favorite. At -250, his implied probability of winning and staying unbeated at middleweight sits at 71.4%. But, it’s important to keep your eyes peeled for any Adesanya vs. Vettori odds movements ahead of the fight on Saturday.

Vettori, who hasn’t lost in three years and has moved himself up the rankings within the middleweight division, is as long as +225 at a few different sportsbooks. That means that Adesanya vs. Vettori odds give him just a 30.8% chance of winning

FighterUFC 263 OddsImplied Probability
Israel Adesanya-25071.4%
Marvin Vettori+22530.8%

Israel Adesanya Record

Israel Adesanya's record is 20-1-0 in 21 professional MMA fights. He's coming off a loss to Jan Błachowicz after he tried to move up to light heavyweight and become the double champ.

Res.RecordOpponentMethodEventDateRoundTime
Loss20–1Jan BłachowiczDecision (unanimous)UFC 259March 6, 2021505:00
Win20–0Paulo CostaTKO (punches and elbows)UFC 253September 27, 2020203:59
Win19–0Yoel RomeroDecision (unanimous)UFC 248March 7, 2020505:00
Win18–0Robert WhittakerKO (punches)UFC 243October 6, 2019203:33
Win17–0Kelvin GastelumDecision (unanimous)UFC 236April 13, 2019505:00
Win16–0Anderson SilvaDecision (unanimous)UFC 234February 10, 2019305:00
Win15–0Derek BrunsonTKO (knees and punches)UFC 230November 3, 2018104:51
Win14–0Brad TavaresDecision (unanimous)The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated FinaleJuly 6, 2018505:00
Win13–0Marvin VettoriDecision (split)UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. GaethjeApril 14, 2018305:00
Win12–0Rob WilkinsonTKO (knees and punches)UFC 221February 11, 2018203:37
Win11–0Stuart DareKO (head kick)Hex Fighting Series 12November 24, 2017104:53
Win10–0Melvin GuillardTKO (punches)AFC 20July 28, 2017104:49
Win9–0Murad KuramagomedovTKO (punches)Wu Lin Feng: E.P.I.C. 4May 28, 2016201:05
Win8–0Andrew Flores SmithTKO (corner stoppage)Glory of Heroes 2May 7, 2016105:00
Win7–0Dibir ZagirovTKO (punches)Wu Lin Feng: E.P.I.C. 2March 13, 2016202:23
Win6–0Vladimir KatykhinTKO (doctor stoppage)Wu Lin Feng: E.P.I.C. 1January 13, 20162N/A
Win5–0Gele QingTKO (elbows)Wu Lin Feng 2015: New Zealand vs. ChinaSeptember 19, 2015203:37
Win4–0Maui TuigamalaTKO (body kick)Fair Pay Fighting 1September 5, 2015201:25
Win3–0Song KenanTKO (head kick)The Legend of Emei 3August 8, 2015101:59
Win2–0John VakeTKO (punches)Shuriken MMA: Best of the BestJune 15, 2013104:43
Win1–0James GriffithsTKO (punches)Supremacy Fighting Championship 9March 24, 2012102:09

Marvin Vettori Record

Marvin Vettori holds a record of 17-4-1 in 22 professional fights as a mixed martial artist. He's won five straight but his last loss came in 2018, against Adesanya.

Res.RecordOpponentMethodEventDateRoundTime
Win17–4–1Kevin HollandDecision (unanimous)UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. HollandApril 10, 2021505:00
Win16–4–1Jack HermanssonDecision (unanimous)UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. VettoriDecember 5, 2020505:00
Win15–4–1Karl RobersonSubmission (rear-naked choke)UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. CalvilloJune 13, 2020104:17
Win14–4–1Andrew SanchezDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. WatersonOctober 12, 2019305:00
Win13–4–1Cezar FerreiraDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: de Randamie vs. LaddJuly 13, 2019305:00
Loss12–4–1Israel AdesanyaDecision (split)UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. GaethjeApril 14, 2018305:00
Draw12–3–1Omari AkhmedovDraw (majority)UFC 219December 30, 2017305:00
Win12–3Vitor MirandaDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. LeeJune 25, 2017305:00
Loss11–3Antônio Carlos JúniorDecision (unanimous)UFC 207December 30, 2016305:00
Win11–2Alberto UdaSubmission (guillotine choke)UFC 202August 20, 2016104:30
Win10–2Igor AraújoSubmission (guillotine choke)Venator FC 3May 21, 2016104:30
Win9–2Jack MasonKO (knee and punches)Venator FC 2December 12, 2015101:46
Win8–2Daniele ScatizziDecision (unanimous)Venator FC 1May 30, 2015305:00
Win7–2Giorgio PietriniSubmission (guillotine choke)Venator FC: Guerrieri Italiani SemifinalsMarch 29, 2015102:18
Win6–2Anderson da Silva SantosTKO (punches)Venator FC: Guerrieri Italiani QuarterfinalsJanuary 25, 2015101:07
Loss5–2Bill BeaumontDecision (unanimous)UCMMA 40September 6, 2014305:00
Win5–1Giorgio PietriniSubmission (toe hold)Impera FC 3June 13, 2014103:14
Win4–1Radovan UskrtSubmission (triangle choke)European MMA League 1February 8, 2014101:49
Win3–1Luca RonchettiSubmission (rear-naked choke)Impera FC 2December 14, 201314;07
Win2–1Matt RobinsonSubmission (rear-naked choke)UCMMA 37November 30, 2013103:30
Win1–1Tom RichardsSubmission (rear-naked choke)UCMMA 35August 3, 2013101:31
Loss0–1Alessandro GrandisDecision (unanimous)New Generation Tournament 6July 21, 2012205:00

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