Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Prediction: UFC 263 Picks & Odds

UFC expert James Lynch breaks down his prediction and analysis of Adesanya vs. Vettori 2.
James Lynch
Wed, June 9, 5:57 AM EDT

Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Prediction: UFC 263 Picks & Odds

The UFC has been rolling out some insane cards lately and UFC 263 is no different, headlined by the Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 main event. This is the first time in Israel Adesanya’s career that he’ll have to come off a loss after suffering his first ever defeat, at light heavyweight against Jan Blachowicz. Now, he’s back to middleweight where he’s unbeaten and holds the belt.

Saturday’s Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori fight will be the second between the two. Adesanya won the first meeting in 2018, but these are two vastly different fighters this time around.

So, in order to get you ready for Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 we have UFC expert James Lynch here, breaking down the fight and giving his awaited Adesanya vs. Vettori prediction.

Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Fight Preview

Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 Prediction

As James mentioned, Marvin Vettori hasn’t lost since his split decision loss to Israel Adesanya in 2018, but he also hasn’t fought any world beaters. This version of Adesanya will be far and away the best fighter he’s ever stepped into the octagon with.

The sportsbooks have Adesanya as a pretty sizable favorite, with his current best odds shortening all the way to -250 as of today. Meanwhile, Vettori sits at +225 at some sportsbooks. Either way, as James points out, Adesanya is in a class of his own and shouldn’t be troubled much by Vettori as they face off in Adesanya vs. Vettori 2.

James Lynch’s Adesnaya vs. Vettori Prediction

Prediction: Israel Adesanya ML @ -250 (Click to bet)

Adesanya vs. Vettori Odds

Like we broke down a bit above, Adesanya vs. Vettori odds give a sizeable advantage to the champion. Adesanya vs. Vettori odds pin Israel Adesanya as a -250 favorite. At -250, his implied probability of winning and staying unbeated at middleweight sits at 71.4%. But, it’s important to keep your eyes peeled for any Adesanya vs. Vettori odds movements ahead of the fight on Saturday.

Vettori, who hasn’t lost in three years and has moved himself up the rankings within the middleweight division, is as long as +225 at a few different sportsbooks. That means that Adesanya vs. Vettori odds give him just a 30.8% chance of winning

Fighter UFC 263 Odds Implied Probability
Israel Adesanya -250 71.4%
Marvin Vettori +225 30.8%

Israel Adesanya Record

Israel Adesanya's record is 20-1-0 in 21 professional MMA fights. He's coming off a loss to Jan Błachowicz after he tried to move up to light heavyweight and become the double champ.

Res. Record Opponent Method Event Date Round Time
Loss 20–1 Jan Błachowicz Decision (unanimous) UFC 259 March 6, 2021 5 05:00
Win 20–0 Paulo Costa TKO (punches and elbows) UFC 253 September 27, 2020 2 03:59
Win 19–0 Yoel Romero Decision (unanimous) UFC 248 March 7, 2020 5 05:00
Win 18–0 Robert Whittaker KO (punches) UFC 243 October 6, 2019 2 03:33
Win 17–0 Kelvin Gastelum Decision (unanimous) UFC 236 April 13, 2019 5 05:00
Win 16–0 Anderson Silva Decision (unanimous) UFC 234 February 10, 2019 3 05:00
Win 15–0 Derek Brunson TKO (knees and punches) UFC 230 November 3, 2018 1 04:51
Win 14–0 Brad Tavares Decision (unanimous) The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale July 6, 2018 5 05:00
Win 13–0 Marvin Vettori Decision (split) UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje April 14, 2018 3 05:00
Win 12–0 Rob Wilkinson TKO (knees and punches) UFC 221 February 11, 2018 2 03:37
Win 11–0 Stuart Dare KO (head kick) Hex Fighting Series 12 November 24, 2017 1 04:53
Win 10–0 Melvin Guillard TKO (punches) AFC 20 July 28, 2017 1 04:49
Win 9–0 Murad Kuramagomedov TKO (punches) Wu Lin Feng: E.P.I.C. 4 May 28, 2016 2 01:05
Win 8–0 Andrew Flores Smith TKO (corner stoppage) Glory of Heroes 2 May 7, 2016 1 05:00
Win 7–0 Dibir Zagirov TKO (punches) Wu Lin Feng: E.P.I.C. 2 March 13, 2016 2 02:23
Win 6–0 Vladimir Katykhin TKO (doctor stoppage) Wu Lin Feng: E.P.I.C. 1 January 13, 2016 2 N/A
Win 5–0 Gele Qing TKO (elbows) Wu Lin Feng 2015: New Zealand vs. China September 19, 2015 2 03:37
Win 4–0 Maui Tuigamala TKO (body kick) Fair Pay Fighting 1 September 5, 2015 2 01:25
Win 3–0 Song Kenan TKO (head kick) The Legend of Emei 3 August 8, 2015 1 01:59
Win 2–0 John Vake TKO (punches) Shuriken MMA: Best of the Best June 15, 2013 1 04:43
Win 1–0 James Griffiths TKO (punches) Supremacy Fighting Championship 9 March 24, 2012 1 02:09

Marvin Vettori Record

Marvin Vettori holds a record of 17-4-1 in 22 professional fights as a mixed martial artist. He's won five straight but his last loss came in 2018, against Adesanya.

Res. Record Opponent Method Event Date Round Time
Win 17–4–1 Kevin Holland Decision (unanimous) UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland April 10, 2021 5 05:00
Win 16–4–1 Jack Hermansson Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori December 5, 2020 5 05:00
Win 15–4–1 Karl Roberson Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo June 13, 2020 1 04:17
Win 14–4–1 Andrew Sanchez Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson October 12, 2019 3 05:00
Win 13–4–1 Cezar Ferreira Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: de Randamie vs. Ladd July 13, 2019 3 05:00
Loss 12–4–1 Israel Adesanya Decision (split) UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje April 14, 2018 3 05:00
Draw 12–3–1 Omari Akhmedov Draw (majority) UFC 219 December 30, 2017 3 05:00
Win 12–3 Vitor Miranda Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee June 25, 2017 3 05:00
Loss 11–3 Antônio Carlos Júnior Decision (unanimous) UFC 207 December 30, 2016 3 05:00
Win 11–2 Alberto Uda Submission (guillotine choke) UFC 202 August 20, 2016 1 04:30
Win 10–2 Igor Araújo Submission (guillotine choke) Venator FC 3 May 21, 2016 1 04:30
Win 9–2 Jack Mason KO (knee and punches) Venator FC 2 December 12, 2015 1 01:46
Win 8–2 Daniele Scatizzi Decision (unanimous) Venator FC 1 May 30, 2015 3 05:00
Win 7–2 Giorgio Pietrini Submission (guillotine choke) Venator FC: Guerrieri Italiani Semifinals March 29, 2015 1 02:18
Win 6–2 Anderson da Silva Santos TKO (punches) Venator FC: Guerrieri Italiani Quarterfinals January 25, 2015 1 01:07
Loss 5–2 Bill Beaumont Decision (unanimous) UCMMA 40 September 6, 2014 3 05:00
Win 5–1 Giorgio Pietrini Submission (toe hold) Impera FC 3 June 13, 2014 1 03:14
Win 4–1 Radovan Uskrt Submission (triangle choke) European MMA League 1 February 8, 2014 1 01:49
Win 3–1 Luca Ronchetti Submission (rear-naked choke) Impera FC 2 December 14, 2013 1 4;07
Win 2–1 Matt Robinson Submission (rear-naked choke) UCMMA 37 November 30, 2013 1 03:30
Win 1–1 Tom Richards Submission (rear-naked choke) UCMMA 35 August 3, 2013 1 01:31
Loss 0–1 Alessandro Grandis Decision (unanimous) New Generation Tournament 6 July 21, 2012 2 05:00
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