Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Prediction: UFC 263 Picks & Odds
The UFC has been rolling out some insane cards lately and UFC 263 is no different, headlined by the Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 main event. This is the first time in Israel Adesanya’s career that he’ll have to come off a loss after suffering his first ever defeat, at light heavyweight against Jan Blachowicz. Now, he’s back to middleweight where he’s unbeaten and holds the belt.
Saturday’s Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori fight will be the second between the two. Adesanya won the first meeting in 2018, but these are two vastly different fighters this time around.
So, in order to get you ready for Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 we have UFC expert James Lynch here, breaking down the fight and giving his awaited Adesanya vs. Vettori prediction.
Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Fight Preview
Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 Prediction
As James mentioned, Marvin Vettori hasn’t lost since his split decision loss to Israel Adesanya in 2018, but he also hasn’t fought any world beaters. This version of Adesanya will be far and away the best fighter he’s ever stepped into the octagon with.
The sportsbooks have Adesanya as a pretty sizable favorite, with his current best odds shortening all the way to -250 as of today. Meanwhile, Vettori sits at +225 at some sportsbooks. Either way, as James points out, Adesanya is in a class of his own and shouldn’t be troubled much by Vettori as they face off in Adesanya vs. Vettori 2.
James Lynch’s Adesnaya vs. Vettori Prediction
Prediction: Israel Adesanya ML @ -250 (Click to bet)
Adesanya vs. Vettori Odds
Like we broke down a bit above, Adesanya vs. Vettori odds give a sizeable advantage to the champion. Adesanya vs. Vettori odds pin Israel Adesanya as a -250 favorite. At -250, his implied probability of winning and staying unbeated at middleweight sits at 71.4%. But, it’s important to keep your eyes peeled for any Adesanya vs. Vettori odds movements ahead of the fight on Saturday.
Vettori, who hasn’t lost in three years and has moved himself up the rankings within the middleweight division, is as long as +225 at a few different sportsbooks. That means that Adesanya vs. Vettori odds give him just a 30.8% chance of winning
|Fighter||UFC 263 Odds||Implied Probability|
Israel Adesanya Record
Israel Adesanya's record is 20-1-0 in 21 professional MMA fights. He's coming off a loss to Jan Błachowicz after he tried to move up to light heavyweight and become the double champ.
|Loss||20–1||Jan Błachowicz||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 259||March 6, 2021||5||05:00|
|Win||20–0||Paulo Costa||TKO (punches and elbows)||UFC 253||September 27, 2020||2||03:59|
|Win||19–0||Yoel Romero||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 248||March 7, 2020||5||05:00|
|Win||18–0||Robert Whittaker||KO (punches)||UFC 243||October 6, 2019||2||03:33|
|Win||17–0||Kelvin Gastelum||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 236||April 13, 2019||5||05:00|
|Win||16–0||Anderson Silva||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 234||February 10, 2019||3||05:00|
|Win||15–0||Derek Brunson||TKO (knees and punches)||UFC 230||November 3, 2018||1||04:51|
|Win||14–0||Brad Tavares||Decision (unanimous)||The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale||July 6, 2018||5||05:00|
|Win||13–0||Marvin Vettori||Decision (split)||UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje||April 14, 2018||3||05:00|
|Win||12–0||Rob Wilkinson||TKO (knees and punches)||UFC 221||February 11, 2018||2||03:37|
|Win||11–0||Stuart Dare||KO (head kick)||Hex Fighting Series 12||November 24, 2017||1||04:53|
|Win||10–0||Melvin Guillard||TKO (punches)||AFC 20||July 28, 2017||1||04:49|
|Win||9–0||Murad Kuramagomedov||TKO (punches)||Wu Lin Feng: E.P.I.C. 4||May 28, 2016||2||01:05|
|Win||8–0||Andrew Flores Smith||TKO (corner stoppage)||Glory of Heroes 2||May 7, 2016||1||05:00|
|Win||7–0||Dibir Zagirov||TKO (punches)||Wu Lin Feng: E.P.I.C. 2||March 13, 2016||2||02:23|
|Win||6–0||Vladimir Katykhin||TKO (doctor stoppage)||Wu Lin Feng: E.P.I.C. 1||January 13, 2016||2||N/A|
|Win||5–0||Gele Qing||TKO (elbows)||Wu Lin Feng 2015: New Zealand vs. China||September 19, 2015||2||03:37|
|Win||4–0||Maui Tuigamala||TKO (body kick)||Fair Pay Fighting 1||September 5, 2015||2||01:25|
|Win||3–0||Song Kenan||TKO (head kick)||The Legend of Emei 3||August 8, 2015||1||01:59|
|Win||2–0||John Vake||TKO (punches)||Shuriken MMA: Best of the Best||June 15, 2013||1||04:43|
|Win||1–0||James Griffiths||TKO (punches)||Supremacy Fighting Championship 9||March 24, 2012||1||02:09|
Marvin Vettori Record
Marvin Vettori holds a record of 17-4-1 in 22 professional fights as a mixed martial artist. He's won five straight but his last loss came in 2018, against Adesanya.
|Win||17–4–1||Kevin Holland||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland||April 10, 2021||5||05:00|
|Win||16–4–1||Jack Hermansson||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori||December 5, 2020||5||05:00|
|Win||15–4–1||Karl Roberson||Submission (rear-naked choke)||UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo||June 13, 2020||1||04:17|
|Win||14–4–1||Andrew Sanchez||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson||October 12, 2019||3||05:00|
|Win||13–4–1||Cezar Ferreira||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: de Randamie vs. Ladd||July 13, 2019||3||05:00|
|Loss||12–4–1||Israel Adesanya||Decision (split)||UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje||April 14, 2018||3||05:00|
|Draw||12–3–1||Omari Akhmedov||Draw (majority)||UFC 219||December 30, 2017||3||05:00|
|Win||12–3||Vitor Miranda||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee||June 25, 2017||3||05:00|
|Loss||11–3||Antônio Carlos Júnior||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 207||December 30, 2016||3||05:00|
|Win||11–2||Alberto Uda||Submission (guillotine choke)||UFC 202||August 20, 2016||1||04:30|
|Win||10–2||Igor Araújo||Submission (guillotine choke)||Venator FC 3||May 21, 2016||1||04:30|
|Win||9–2||Jack Mason||KO (knee and punches)||Venator FC 2||December 12, 2015||1||01:46|
|Win||8–2||Daniele Scatizzi||Decision (unanimous)||Venator FC 1||May 30, 2015||3||05:00|
|Win||7–2||Giorgio Pietrini||Submission (guillotine choke)||Venator FC: Guerrieri Italiani Semifinals||March 29, 2015||1||02:18|
|Win||6–2||Anderson da Silva Santos||TKO (punches)||Venator FC: Guerrieri Italiani Quarterfinals||January 25, 2015||1||01:07|
|Loss||5–2||Bill Beaumont||Decision (unanimous)||UCMMA 40||September 6, 2014||3||05:00|
|Win||5–1||Giorgio Pietrini||Submission (toe hold)||Impera FC 3||June 13, 2014||1||03:14|
|Win||4–1||Radovan Uskrt||Submission (triangle choke)||European MMA League 1||February 8, 2014||1||01:49|
|Win||3–1||Luca Ronchetti||Submission (rear-naked choke)||Impera FC 2||December 14, 2013||1||4;07|
|Win||2–1||Matt Robinson||Submission (rear-naked choke)||UCMMA 37||November 30, 2013||1||03:30|
|Win||1–1||Tom Richards||Submission (rear-naked choke)||UCMMA 35||August 3, 2013||1||01:31|
|Loss||0–1||Alessandro Grandis||Decision (unanimous)||New Generation Tournament 6||July 21, 2012||2||05:00|