Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Prediction: UFC 263 Picks & Odds

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards predictions and video analysis from UFC expert James Lynch
James Lynch
Thu, June 10, 9:29 AM EDT

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Prediction: UFC 263 Picks & Odds

For the first time in UFC history, we’re getting a five-round bout that isn’t a main event or a title fight, and it’s coming for Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards. So, it’s only right we called on UFC expert James Lynch to make his Diaz vs. Edwards predictions.

Nate Diaz hasn’t had a UFC fight since all the way back in November of 2019 when he took on Jorge Masvidal and was forced to quit thanks to a doctor’s stoppage. But, now he’s back, and you can expect the UFC’s most popular fighter to have the crowd on his side come Saturday night in Glendale Arizona.

We know that Kamaru Usman’s next opponent is set to be Colby Covington, but Dana White has said that the winner of Diaz vs. Edwards will the on the winner of Usman vs. Covington 2 for a shot at the belt. Neither Edwards nor Diaz have ever been a UFC champ, so expect both of them to come out swinging. Let’s get James Lynch’s Diaz vs. Edwards prediction.

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Fight Preview

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Prediction

Nate Diaz hasn’t had much success of late. The 36-year old has lost two of his last three fights with his only win coming over Anthony Pettis. But, Diaz is a unique fighter. He doesn’t have top-end power, but he’s an excellent striker and a submission tactician. Not to mention insane cardio.

Edwards isn’t necessarily known for finishing fights, but he does everything really well and takes fights the distance, where he wins. If there is going to be a KO, chances are it comes at the hands of an Edwards punch, not the other way around.

James Lynch’s Diaz vs. Edwards Prediction

Prediction: Leon Edwards via Decision @ +120 (Click to bet)

Prediction: Fight To Go Distance @ -110 (Click to bet)

Diaz vs. Edwards Odds

It’s been a while since we’ve seen Nate Diaz as this big of an underdog. As a matter of fact, if the odds keep trending toward Edwards, Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds will be the longest odds Nate Diaz has ever had in his career.

Edwards' best odds sit at -500, but he's as short as -600 in some places. Right now, their best odds give Nate Diaz just an 18.2% shot of winning while Edwards has an 83.33% chance.

Fighter UFC 263 Odds Implied Probability
Nate Diaz +450 18.2%
Leon Edwards -500 83.33%

Nate Diaz's Record

Nate Diaz is 20-12 in 32 professional MMA fights. His last fight was a loss to Jorge Masvidal in 2019.

Res. Record Opponent Method Event Date Round Time
Loss 20–12 Jorge Masvidal TKO (doctor stoppage) UFC 244 November 2, 2019 3 05:00
Win 20–11 Anthony Pettis Decision (unanimous) UFC 241 August 17, 2019 3 05:00
Loss 19–11 Conor McGregor Decision (majority) UFC 202 August 20, 2016 5 05:00
Win 19–10 Conor McGregor Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 196 March 5, 2016 2 04:12
Win 18–10 Michael Johnson Decision (unanimous) UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 December 19, 2015 3 05:00
Loss 17–10 Rafael dos Anjos Decision (unanimous) UFC on Fox: dos Santos vs. Miocic December 13, 2014 3 05:00
Win 17–9 Gray Maynard TKO (punches) The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale November 30, 2013 1 02:38
Loss 16–9 Josh Thomson TKO (head kick and punches) UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Melendez April 20, 2013 2 03:44
Loss 16–8 Benson Henderson Decision (unanimous) UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Diaz December 8, 2012 5 05:00
Win 16–7 Jim Miller Submission (guillotine choke) UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. Miller May 5, 2012 2 04:09
Win 15–7 Donald Cerrone Decision (unanimous) UFC 141 December 30, 2011 3 05:00
Win 14–7 Takanori Gomi Submission (armbar) UFC 135 September 24, 2011 1 04:27
Loss 13–7 Rory MacDonald Decision (unanimous) UFC 129 April 30, 2011 3 05:00
Loss 13–6 Dong Hyun Kim Decision (unanimous) UFC 125 January 1, 2011 3 05:00
Win 13–5 Marcus Davis Technical Submission (guillotine choke) UFC 118 August 28, 2010 3 04:02
Win 12–5 Rory Markham TKO (punches) UFC 111 March 27, 2010 1 02:47
Loss 11–5 Gray Maynard Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs. Diaz January 11, 2010 3 05:00
Win 11–4 Melvin Guillard Submission (guillotine choke) UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Guillard September 16, 2009 2 02:13
Loss 10–4 Joe Stevenson Decision (unanimous) The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale June 20, 2009 3 05:00
Loss 10–3 Clay Guida Decision (split) UFC 94 January 31, 2009 3 05:00
Win 10–2 Josh Neer Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Neer September 17, 2008 3 05:00
Win 9–2 Kurt Pellegrino Submission (triangle choke) UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Lauzon April 2, 2008 2 03:06
Win 8–2 Alvin Robinson Submission (triangle choke) UFC Fight Night: Swick vs. Burkman January 23, 2008 1 03:39
Win 7–2 Junior Assunção Submission (guillotine choke) UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs. Florian September 19, 2007 1 04:10
Win 6–2 Manvel Gamburyan TKO (shoulder injury) The Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale June 23, 2007 2 00:20
Loss 5–2 Hermes França Submission (armbar) WEC 24 October 12, 2006 2 02:46
Win 5–1 Dennis Davis Submission (americana) Warrior Cup 1 August 12, 2006 1 02:00
Win 4–1 Joe Hurley Submission (triangle choke) WEC 21 June 15, 2006 2 02:03
Win 3–1 Gilbert Rael TKO (punches) WEC 20 May 5, 2006 1 03:35
Win 2–1 Tony Juares TKO (punches) Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Gracie March 10, 2006 1 03:23
Loss 1–1 Koji Oishi Decision (unanimous) Pancrase: 2005 Neo-Blood Tournament Finals August 27, 2005 3 05:00
Win 1–0 Alejandro Garcia Submission (triangle choke) WEC 12 October 21, 2004 3 02:17

Leon Edwards' Record

Leon Edwards is 18-3 with one No Contest in 22 professional MMA fights. His last fight resulted in a no contest due to an eye poke.

Res. Record Opponent Method Event Date Round Time
NC 18–3 (1) Belal Muhammad NC (accidental eye poke) UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad 13-Mar-21 2 00:18
Win 18–3 Rafael dos Anjos Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards 20-Jul-19 5 05:00
Win 17–3 Gunnar Nelson Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal 16-Mar-19 3 05:00
Win 16–3 Donald Cerrone Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards 23-Jun-18 5 05:00
Win 15–3 Peter Sobotta TKO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov 17-Mar-18 3 04:59
Win 14–3 Bryan Barberena Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve 02-Sep-17 3 05:00
Win 13–3 Vicente Luque Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson 18-Mar-17 3 05:00
Win 12–3 Albert Tumenov Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 204 08-Oct-16 3 03:01
Win 11–3 Dominic Waters Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski 08-May-16 3 05:00
Loss 10–3 Kamaru Usman Decision (unanimous) UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 19-Dec-15 3 05:00
Win 10–2 Pawel Pawlak Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Leites 18-Jul-15 3 05:00
Win 9–2 Seth Baczynski KO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2 11-Apr-15 1 00:08
Loss 8–2 Cláudio Silva Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Saint Preux 08-Nov-14 3 05:00
Win 8–1 Shaun Taylor KO (punch) BAMMA 16 13-Sep-14 3 03:30
Win 7–1 Wayne Murrie Submission (rear-naked choke) BAMMA 15 05-May-14 3 03:13
Win 6–1 Wendle Lewis KO (punches) BAMMA 14 14-Dec-13 1 01:20
Win 5–1 Adam Boussif Submission (arm-triangle choke) BAMMA 13 13-Sep-13 1 02:10
Win 4–1 Jonathan Bilton TKO (knees) BAMMA 11 01-Dec-12 2 01:11
Win 3–1 Craig White Technical Decision SAH 14: Strength And Honour 14 03-Nov-12 2 05:00
Loss 2–1 Delroy McDowell DQ (illegal knee) Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 6 25-Feb-12 3 02:40
Win 2–0 Pawel Zwiefka Decision (unanimous) Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 5 19-Nov-11 3 05:00
Win 1–0 Damian Zlotnicki TKO (punches) Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 4 05-Jun-11 1 02:15
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