Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Prediction: UFC 263 Picks & Odds
For the first time in UFC history, we’re getting a five-round bout that isn’t a main event or a title fight, and it’s coming for Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards. So, it’s only right we called on UFC expert James Lynch to make his Diaz vs. Edwards predictions.
Nate Diaz hasn’t had a UFC fight since all the way back in November of 2019 when he took on Jorge Masvidal and was forced to quit thanks to a doctor’s stoppage. But, now he’s back, and you can expect the UFC’s most popular fighter to have the crowd on his side come Saturday night in Glendale Arizona.
We know that Kamaru Usman’s next opponent is set to be Colby Covington, but Dana White has said that the winner of Diaz vs. Edwards will the on the winner of Usman vs. Covington 2 for a shot at the belt. Neither Edwards nor Diaz have ever been a UFC champ, so expect both of them to come out swinging. Let’s get James Lynch’s Diaz vs. Edwards prediction.
Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Fight Preview
Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Prediction
Nate Diaz hasn’t had much success of late. The 36-year old has lost two of his last three fights with his only win coming over Anthony Pettis. But, Diaz is a unique fighter. He doesn’t have top-end power, but he’s an excellent striker and a submission tactician. Not to mention insane cardio.
Edwards isn’t necessarily known for finishing fights, but he does everything really well and takes fights the distance, where he wins. If there is going to be a KO, chances are it comes at the hands of an Edwards punch, not the other way around.
James Lynch’s Diaz vs. Edwards Prediction
Prediction: Leon Edwards via Decision @ +120 (Click to bet)
Prediction: Fight To Go Distance @ -110 (Click to bet)
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Nate Diaz as this big of an underdog. As a matter of fact, if the odds keep trending toward Edwards, Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds will be the longest odds Nate Diaz has ever had in his career.
Edwards' best odds sit at -500, but he's as short as -600 in some places. Right now, their best odds give Nate Diaz just an 18.2% shot of winning while Edwards has an 83.33% chance.
|Fighter||UFC 263 Odds||Implied Probability|
Nate Diaz's Record
Nate Diaz is 20-12 in 32 professional MMA fights. His last fight was a loss to Jorge Masvidal in 2019.
|Loss||20–12||Jorge Masvidal||TKO (doctor stoppage)||UFC 244||November 2, 2019||3||05:00|
|Win||20–11||Anthony Pettis||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 241||August 17, 2019||3||05:00|
|Loss||19–11||Conor McGregor||Decision (majority)||UFC 202||August 20, 2016||5||05:00|
|Win||19–10||Conor McGregor||Submission (rear-naked choke)||UFC 196||March 5, 2016||2||04:12|
|Win||18–10||Michael Johnson||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2||December 19, 2015||3||05:00|
|Loss||17–10||Rafael dos Anjos||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on Fox: dos Santos vs. Miocic||December 13, 2014||3||05:00|
|Win||17–9||Gray Maynard||TKO (punches)||The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale||November 30, 2013||1||02:38|
|Loss||16–9||Josh Thomson||TKO (head kick and punches)||UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Melendez||April 20, 2013||2||03:44|
|Loss||16–8||Benson Henderson||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. Diaz||December 8, 2012||5||05:00|
|Win||16–7||Jim Miller||Submission (guillotine choke)||UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. Miller||May 5, 2012||2||04:09|
|Win||15–7||Donald Cerrone||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 141||December 30, 2011||3||05:00|
|Win||14–7||Takanori Gomi||Submission (armbar)||UFC 135||September 24, 2011||1||04:27|
|Loss||13–7||Rory MacDonald||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 129||April 30, 2011||3||05:00|
|Loss||13–6||Dong Hyun Kim||Decision (unanimous)||UFC 125||January 1, 2011||3||05:00|
|Win||13–5||Marcus Davis||Technical Submission (guillotine choke)||UFC 118||August 28, 2010||3||04:02|
|Win||12–5||Rory Markham||TKO (punches)||UFC 111||March 27, 2010||1||02:47|
|Loss||11–5||Gray Maynard||Decision (split)||UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs. Diaz||January 11, 2010||3||05:00|
|Win||11–4||Melvin Guillard||Submission (guillotine choke)||UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Guillard||September 16, 2009||2||02:13|
|Loss||10–4||Joe Stevenson||Decision (unanimous)||The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale||June 20, 2009||3||05:00|
|Loss||10–3||Clay Guida||Decision (split)||UFC 94||January 31, 2009||3||05:00|
|Win||10–2||Josh Neer||Decision (split)||UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Neer||September 17, 2008||3||05:00|
|Win||9–2||Kurt Pellegrino||Submission (triangle choke)||UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Lauzon||April 2, 2008||2||03:06|
|Win||8–2||Alvin Robinson||Submission (triangle choke)||UFC Fight Night: Swick vs. Burkman||January 23, 2008||1||03:39|
|Win||7–2||Junior Assunção||Submission (guillotine choke)||UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs. Florian||September 19, 2007||1||04:10|
|Win||6–2||Manvel Gamburyan||TKO (shoulder injury)||The Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale||June 23, 2007||2||00:20|
|Loss||5–2||Hermes França||Submission (armbar)||WEC 24||October 12, 2006||2||02:46|
|Win||5–1||Dennis Davis||Submission (americana)||Warrior Cup 1||August 12, 2006||1||02:00|
|Win||4–1||Joe Hurley||Submission (triangle choke)||WEC 21||June 15, 2006||2||02:03|
|Win||3–1||Gilbert Rael||TKO (punches)||WEC 20||May 5, 2006||1||03:35|
|Win||2–1||Tony Juares||TKO (punches)||Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Gracie||March 10, 2006||1||03:23|
|Loss||1–1||Koji Oishi||Decision (unanimous)||Pancrase: 2005 Neo-Blood Tournament Finals||August 27, 2005||3||05:00|
|Win||1–0||Alejandro Garcia||Submission (triangle choke)||WEC 12||October 21, 2004||3||02:17|
Leon Edwards' Record
Leon Edwards is 18-3 with one No Contest in 22 professional MMA fights. His last fight resulted in a no contest due to an eye poke.
|NC||18–3 (1)||Belal Muhammad||NC (accidental eye poke)||UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad||13-Mar-21||2||00:18|
|Win||18–3||Rafael dos Anjos||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards||20-Jul-19||5||05:00|
|Win||17–3||Gunnar Nelson||Decision (split)||UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal||16-Mar-19||3||05:00|
|Win||16–3||Donald Cerrone||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards||23-Jun-18||5||05:00|
|Win||15–3||Peter Sobotta||TKO (punches)||UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov||17-Mar-18||3||04:59|
|Win||14–3||Bryan Barberena||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve||02-Sep-17||3||05:00|
|Win||13–3||Vicente Luque||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson||18-Mar-17||3||05:00|
|Win||12–3||Albert Tumenov||Submission (rear-naked choke)||UFC 204||08-Oct-16||3||03:01|
|Win||11–3||Dominic Waters||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski||08-May-16||3||05:00|
|Loss||10–3||Kamaru Usman||Decision (unanimous)||UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2||19-Dec-15||3||05:00|
|Win||10–2||Pawel Pawlak||Decision (unanimous)||UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Leites||18-Jul-15||3||05:00|
|Win||9–2||Seth Baczynski||KO (punches)||UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2||11-Apr-15||1||00:08|
|Loss||8–2||Cláudio Silva||Decision (split)||UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Saint Preux||08-Nov-14||3||05:00|
|Win||8–1||Shaun Taylor||KO (punch)||BAMMA 16||13-Sep-14||3||03:30|
|Win||7–1||Wayne Murrie||Submission (rear-naked choke)||BAMMA 15||05-May-14||3||03:13|
|Win||6–1||Wendle Lewis||KO (punches)||BAMMA 14||14-Dec-13||1||01:20|
|Win||5–1||Adam Boussif||Submission (arm-triangle choke)||BAMMA 13||13-Sep-13||1||02:10|
|Win||4–1||Jonathan Bilton||TKO (knees)||BAMMA 11||01-Dec-12||2||01:11|
|Win||3–1||Craig White||Technical Decision||SAH 14: Strength And Honour 14||03-Nov-12||2||05:00|
|Loss||2–1||Delroy McDowell||DQ (illegal knee)||Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 6||25-Feb-12||3||02:40|
|Win||2–0||Pawel Zwiefka||Decision (unanimous)||Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 5||19-Nov-11||3||05:00|
|Win||1–0||Damian Zlotnicki||TKO (punches)||Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 4||05-Jun-11||1||02:15|