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Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards predictions and video analysis from UFC expert James Lynch
ANALYSIS

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Prediction: UFC 263 Picks & Odds

For the first time in UFC history, we’re getting a five-round bout that isn’t a main event or a title fight, and it’s coming for Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards. So, it’s only right we called on UFC expert James Lynch to make his Diaz vs. Edwards predictions.

Nate Diaz hasn’t had a UFC fight since all the way back in November of 2019 when he took on Jorge Masvidal and was forced to quit thanks to a doctor’s stoppage. But, now he’s back, and you can expect the UFC’s most popular fighter to have the crowd on his side come Saturday night in Glendale Arizona.

We know that Kamaru Usman’s next opponent is set to be Colby Covington, but Dana White has said that the winner of Diaz vs. Edwards will the on the winner of Usman vs. Covington 2 for a shot at the belt. Neither Edwards nor Diaz have ever been a UFC champ, so expect both of them to come out swinging. Let’s get James Lynch’s Diaz vs. Edwards prediction.

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Fight Preview

Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards Prediction

Nate Diaz hasn’t had much success of late. The 36-year old has lost two of his last three fights with his only win coming over Anthony Pettis. But, Diaz is a unique fighter. He doesn’t have top-end power, but he’s an excellent striker and a submission tactician. Not to mention insane cardio.

Edwards isn’t necessarily known for finishing fights, but he does everything really well and takes fights the distance, where he wins. If there is going to be a KO, chances are it comes at the hands of an Edwards punch, not the other way around.

James Lynch’s Diaz vs. Edwards Prediction

Prediction: Leon Edwards via Decision @ +120 (Click to bet)

Prediction: Fight To Go Distance @ -110 (Click to bet)

Diaz vs. Edwards Odds

It’s been a while since we’ve seen Nate Diaz as this big of an underdog. As a matter of fact, if the odds keep trending toward Edwards, Nate Diaz vs. Leon Edwards odds will be the longest odds Nate Diaz has ever had in his career.

Edwards' best odds sit at -500, but he's as short as -600 in some places. Right now, their best odds give Nate Diaz just an 18.2% shot of winning while Edwards has an 83.33% chance.

FighterUFC 263 OddsImplied Probability
Nate Diaz+45018.2%
Leon Edwards-50083.33%

Nate Diaz's Record

Nate Diaz is 20-12 in 32 professional MMA fights. His last fight was a loss to Jorge Masvidal in 2019.

Res.RecordOpponentMethodEventDateRoundTime
Loss20–12Jorge MasvidalTKO (doctor stoppage)UFC 244November 2, 2019305:00
Win20–11Anthony PettisDecision (unanimous)UFC 241August 17, 2019305:00
Loss19–11Conor McGregorDecision (majority)UFC 202August 20, 2016505:00
Win19–10Conor McGregorSubmission (rear-naked choke)UFC 196March 5, 2016204:12
Win18–10Michael JohnsonDecision (unanimous)UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2December 19, 2015305:00
Loss17–10Rafael dos AnjosDecision (unanimous)UFC on Fox: dos Santos vs. MiocicDecember 13, 2014305:00
Win17–9Gray MaynardTKO (punches)The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate FinaleNovember 30, 2013102:38
Loss16–9Josh ThomsonTKO (head kick and punches)UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. MelendezApril 20, 2013203:44
Loss16–8Benson HendersonDecision (unanimous)UFC on Fox: Henderson vs. DiazDecember 8, 2012505:00
Win16–7Jim MillerSubmission (guillotine choke)UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. MillerMay 5, 2012204:09
Win15–7Donald CerroneDecision (unanimous)UFC 141December 30, 2011305:00
Win14–7Takanori GomiSubmission (armbar)UFC 135September 24, 2011104:27
Loss13–7Rory MacDonaldDecision (unanimous)UFC 129April 30, 2011305:00
Loss13–6Dong Hyun KimDecision (unanimous)UFC 125January 1, 2011305:00
Win13–5Marcus DavisTechnical Submission (guillotine choke)UFC 118August 28, 2010304:02
Win12–5Rory MarkhamTKO (punches)UFC 111March 27, 2010102:47
Loss11–5Gray MaynardDecision (split)UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs. DiazJanuary 11, 2010305:00
Win11–4Melvin GuillardSubmission (guillotine choke)UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. GuillardSeptember 16, 2009202:13
Loss10–4Joe StevensonDecision (unanimous)The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom FinaleJune 20, 2009305:00
Loss10–3Clay GuidaDecision (split)UFC 94January 31, 2009305:00
Win10–2Josh NeerDecision (split)UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. NeerSeptember 17, 2008305:00
Win9–2Kurt PellegrinoSubmission (triangle choke)UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. LauzonApril 2, 2008203:06
Win8–2Alvin RobinsonSubmission (triangle choke)UFC Fight Night: Swick vs. BurkmanJanuary 23, 2008103:39
Win7–2Junior AssunçãoSubmission (guillotine choke)UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs. FlorianSeptember 19, 2007104:10
Win6–2Manvel GamburyanTKO (shoulder injury)The Ultimate Fighter 5 FinaleJune 23, 2007200:20
Loss5–2Hermes FrançaSubmission (armbar)WEC 24October 12, 2006202:46
Win5–1Dennis DavisSubmission (americana)Warrior Cup 1August 12, 2006102:00
Win4–1Joe HurleySubmission (triangle choke)WEC 21June 15, 2006202:03
Win3–1Gilbert RaelTKO (punches)WEC 20May 5, 2006103:35
Win2–1Tony JuaresTKO (punches)Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. GracieMarch 10, 2006103:23
Loss1–1Koji OishiDecision (unanimous)Pancrase: 2005 Neo-Blood Tournament FinalsAugust 27, 2005305:00
Win1–0Alejandro GarciaSubmission (triangle choke)WEC 12October 21, 2004302:17

Leon Edwards' Record

Leon Edwards is 18-3 with one No Contest in 22 professional MMA fights. His last fight resulted in a no contest due to an eye poke.

Res.RecordOpponentMethodEventDateRoundTime
NC18–3 (1)Belal MuhammadNC (accidental eye poke)UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad13-Mar-21200:18
Win18–3Rafael dos AnjosDecision (unanimous)UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards20-Jul-19505:00
Win17–3Gunnar NelsonDecision (split)UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal16-Mar-19305:00
Win16–3Donald CerroneDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards23-Jun-18505:00
Win15–3Peter SobottaTKO (punches)UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov17-Mar-18304:59
Win14–3Bryan BarberenaDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve02-Sep-17305:00
Win13–3Vicente LuqueDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson18-Mar-17305:00
Win12–3Albert TumenovSubmission (rear-naked choke)UFC 20408-Oct-16303:01
Win11–3Dominic WatersDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Arlovski08-May-16305:00
Loss10–3Kamaru UsmanDecision (unanimous)UFC on Fox: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 219-Dec-15305:00
Win10–2Pawel PawlakDecision (unanimous)UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Leites18-Jul-15305:00
Win9–2Seth BaczynskiKO (punches)UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 211-Apr-15100:08
Loss8–2Cláudio SilvaDecision (split)UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Saint Preux08-Nov-14305:00
Win8–1Shaun TaylorKO (punch)BAMMA 1613-Sep-14303:30
Win7–1Wayne MurrieSubmission (rear-naked choke)BAMMA 1505-May-14303:13
Win6–1Wendle LewisKO (punches)BAMMA 1414-Dec-13101:20
Win5–1Adam BoussifSubmission (arm-triangle choke)BAMMA 1313-Sep-13102:10
Win4–1Jonathan BiltonTKO (knees)BAMMA 1101-Dec-12201:11
Win3–1Craig WhiteTechnical DecisionSAH 14: Strength And Honour 1403-Nov-12205:00
Loss2–1Delroy McDowellDQ (illegal knee)Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 625-Feb-12302:40
Win2–0Pawel ZwiefkaDecision (unanimous)Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 519-Nov-11305:00
Win1–0Damian ZlotnickiTKO (punches)Fight UK MMA: Fight UK 405-Jun-11102:15

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