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Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier have split their first two fights throughout their career. At UFC 264 they meet again, this time with a shot at the title on the line.

Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier III Predictions, Picks & Odds: Beware of Leg Kicks

It’s not every week that you get a fight with as much hype as Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier III. But, here we are just a week and a half away from the UFC 264 main event and the fight world is on the edge of its seat with anticipation.

I’m sure we don’t need to recap the history of this feud, but it gives some important background to what exactly we can expect when Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier step into the octagon on July 10.

Let’s breakdown the first two McGregor vs. Poirier fights and get a glimpse at how the third iteration of this rivalry will end up with our Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier III prediction.

Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier Prediction

  • Conor McGregor: 22-5-0 (19 KO, 1 Sub, 2 Dec)
  • Dustin Poirier: 27-6-0 (13 KO, 7 Sub, 7 Dec, 1 NC)

What exactly can we expect at UFC 264 on July 10? Entertainment, for one. But, we can also expect a truly exciting fight with tons on the line.

Before McGregor was defeated by Poirier earlier this year, I’m not necessarily sure he took Poirier seriously as someone who could defeat him, but that all ended in January.

Part of what makes McGregor so great is his ability to move inside the octagon. He’s a true striker that picks his shots well and uses his quickness and power to give opposing fighters fits.

Well, when these two fighters fought in January, Poirier put a stop to all that quickly. Poirier unloaded on McGregor with a barrage of leg kicks, specifically to McGregor’s front foot. By the middle of the first round, that front foot was bright red, and by the start of Round 2 you could see McGregor struggling to put weight on it.

Eventually, it was a combination of fists that put McGregor away, but it was the leg kicks that set the foundation for the win.

If you’re Poirier, you have to all but know that you can’t rely on those same leg kicks in McGregor vs. Poirier III. I’d be surprised if McGregor did anything except practice checking leg kicks for the past five months.

Like I said, I don’t really think McGregor was taking Poirier, or the UFC as a whole, too seriously prior to their last fight. He had a taste for boxing, and more importantly the pay day a boxer gets. He fought and lost to the GOAT, Khabib Nurmagomedov. But I think this last loss embarrassed him a bit.

Poirier is a great fighter, but McGregor considers himself one of the best to ever step inside the octagon.

I think we get a much more focused and driven Conor McGregor come July 10, and I expect to see his “A” game.

As for what the fight will bring, I expect a lot of the same things we saw in the first two fights. The two guys love to stand there and trade blows. We won’t see a ton of grappling, although they both can hold their own on the mat.

You can expect Conor McGregor to come out with his hair on fire. He always starts fights fast and loves to go for quick finishes. If can survive the initial onslaught, his chances of winning improve as the fight goes on.

But, that’s a big if. We haven’t seen a motivated Conor McGregor in quite some time, maybe three years. This fight is not only for pride, but also a shot at lightweight champion Charles Oliveira.

Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier Pick

1u – Conor McGregor ML @ -105

.5u – Conor McGregor to Win in Round 1 @ +380

Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier Odds

FighterUFC 264 OddsImplied Probability
Conor McGregor-10551.2%
Dustin Poirier-10551.2%

Check out our complete Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier odds here

Article Author


Brian is a sports journalist with close to ten years of experience in the business. A lifelong Philadelphia sports fan with a passion for all things sports gambling.


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