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Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson Prediction: UFC 264 Picks

Sure, UFC 264 is headlined by Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 3, but the action doesn’t stop there. As a matter of fact, the matchup featuring Gilbert burns vs. Stephen Thompson may prove to be just as good, if not better when they fighters come to the octagon.

For Thompson, the veteran UFC fighter is looking for another title shot after he narrowly fell short against Tyron Woodley in 2016 and 2017. Meanwhile. Gilbert Burns is looking to bounce back from his heart-breaking loss to Kamaru Usman earlier this year.

Let’s make some UFC 264 predictions and get a Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson pick ahead of Saturday night.

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Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson Prediction

For some, it may seem shocking that the recent Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson odds have Thompson, and not Burns, as the favorite. After all, it was just a few months ago that Burns was taking on one of the best fighters in the world, Kamaru Usman, for his welterweight title.

But, it is Thompson that comes into Saturday night’s UFC 264 fight as a -155 favorite while Burns sits at +150, according to the latest Burns vs. Thompson odds.

I like Gilbert Burns, I think he’s a really good welterweight, but this is not a great matchup for him and it’s unfortunate to see him have to bounce back from his recent loss against a fighter like Thompson.

Burns is a powerful striker, as we saw even against Kamaru Usman, but he doesn’t have a lot of length, something Thompson has an abundance of. Thomspon is two inches taller and has a four-inch reach advantage. He excels at keeping fighters at a distance with his kickboxing and karate, especially those which he has a reach advantage on.

Burns holds a distinct grappling advantage, and I think if he’s going to win he’s going to need to do quite a bit of grappling to keep “Wonder Boy” on his toes.

Whoever wins this bout could have a title shot down the line if things fall their way. Thompson is the fourth-ranked contender in the division while Gilbert Burns sits at No. 2. Although, it’s unlikely we see a rematch for Burns for a little while.

Either way, both fighters are on the cusp of competing for a belt. Whoever wins may realize that dream.

In general, I think Burns is the more talented fighter and mixed martial artist. But, this matchup just doesn’t favor him at all. Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson prediction is that Burns looks strong early, but struggles to get any consistent pressure.

I’m taking Stephen Thompson to win and am also going to sprinkle a little bit on Thomson to win by decision at UFC 264.

Looking for a full breakdown of UFC 264? Our UFC expert Christian Broughton made predictions for the entire card and gave his picks for the night here

Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson Picks

1.5u – Stephen Thompson ML @ -155

.75u – Stephen Thompson to win by Dec. @ +150

Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson Odds

FighterUFC 264 OddsImplied Probability
Gilbert Burns+15040%
Stephen Thompson-15560.8%

Article Author


Brian is a sports journalist with close to ten years of experience in the business. A lifelong Philadelphia sports fan with a passion for all things sports gambling.

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