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After a 3-1 showing in his first ever OddsChecker article, which included a parlay winner, Dan Tom is back to break down this week's UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night Prop Picks & Parlay: Miesha Tate Returns

With the UFC in full swing throughout 2021, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

Last week's sheet was a winner, as we'll be looking to keep the ball rolling here...

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UFC Fight Night Main Event: Makhachev vs. Moises

Full Makhachev vs. Moises odds here

The main event on ESPN features an intriguing lightweight affair between Islam Makhachev (-820) and Thiago Moises (+570).

It's a fight that should provide a decent amount of entertainment for the technical eye, as well as some solid intel on each man for future affairs. That said, it's an awful bout for betting.

The right man is favored but the sides and overs are stacked, as I suspect this battle goes long. Unless you're sprinkling on "Moises inside the distance" at +700, then I suggest staying away.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Straight Plays

Billy Quarantillo @ +140

Full Quarantillo vs. Benitez odds here

With this week's card having all the trap feels attached, I decided to put the bulk of my allotted bankroll into straight plays and parlay sprinkles.

First up is an underdog shot on Billy Quarantillo, who is one of my favorite types of fighters to bet on. Win or lose, Quarantillo is a guy who will fight for your money, as his building nature makes him a magnet for favorable live lines.

That said, Quarantillo will likely have to walk through hell early against Gabriel Benitez. One of my favorite fighters to come off "The Ultimate Fighter: LATAM" series, Benitez is a hard-hitting southpaw who cross-trains at the American Kickboxing Academy.

Benitez's bodywork should serve him well against Quarantillo, but I still favor the American fighter inside of the smaller octagon due to his relentless pressure and grappling advantage. Benitez will be scrambly throughout, but I suspect Quarantillo gets to his positions and produces a finish on the floor in the third round (which is currently sitting in the neighborhood of +2000, for those interested).

Miesha Tate @ -130

Full Reneau vs. Tate odds here

Next up is Miesha Tate, who is making her comeback against a retiring Marion Reneau.

Although a 57-month layoff is not exactly the usual side I find my money on, the stigma of ring rust has been slowly getting chipped away at since 2013. In fact, based on a recent sample I compiled of over 60-plus layoffs since that time, fighters have been steadily increasing their win rates to roughly 57 percent when returning to competition after a minimum of one year away.

But statistical woo-woo aside, I also suspect that Tate should have an inherent stylistic edge against Reneau.

Reneau is a scrappy Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with decent power, but she gives up too much ground for my liking (both on the feet and the floor). Add in the fact that Reneau's been taken down in 10 of her last 10 fights, and I believe that even a "60-percent Tate" should be able to roll on fight night.

UFC Fight Night Parlay Piece

Mateusz Gamrot @ -210

Full Gamrot vs. Stephens odds here

Although I admittedly don't feel too strongly about the potential chalk pairings for Mateusz Gamrot on this card, I do feel like there are a lot of ways to tie action to the Polish fighter.

If you think that Gamrot can avoid shooting into a flying knee or floating into a right hand from Jeremy Stephens, then the American Top Team product should still be an option for big chalk bettors that are looking to put a decent chunk on a favorite. Pair him up with another southpaw in Daniel Rodriguez if you're feeling daring, and you can get close to even money on your return.

Personally, I suspect that Gamrot's switch-stance stylings will throw off Stephen's reads for calf kicks and the like, as I see the Pole out-pointing the UFC veteran with distance strikes and takedowns. For that reason, I'll be sprinkling on "Gamrot by decision" at +225, regardless of whether or not I utilize the money line.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

If you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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