UFC Fight Night Prop Picks & Parlay: 3-Leg Parlay & Underdog Plays
With the UFC in full swing throughout 2021, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.
Even though our three-week winning streak was ruined by one of the worst decisions doled out in 2021, I'm remaining optimistic for what's left of this week's offerings, as I'll be aiming to spread out some small plays on a smaller budget in an effort to keep things fun.
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland Main Event
The main event on ESPN features an interesting middleweight styles clash between Uriah Hall (+172) and Sean Strickland (-200).
Although I don't disagree with who is favored, I ended up siding with the underdog in this spot. Strickland will certainly have the edge in striking volume and grappling on paper, but he's faced very few fast, hard-hitting knockout artists at welterweight or middleweight in the UFC (losing to the ones he has met).
The smaller octagon should favor Strickland, but the 30-year-old has trended away from offensive grappling since returning from his motorcycle accident. So unless Strickland is able to swarm Hall without stopping, I suspect that his aggression only awakens the sleeping giant, allowing Hall to hit a classic comeback counter.
Despite official picking the plus-money fighter, I warn anyone who is overly confident in backing a side here. Instead, I suggest looking at the totals, as I suspect the under at 3.5 rounds (-125) will be the safest angle of approach.
UFC Fight Night Parlay
3-Leg Parlay: Bryan Barberena (-270), Niklas Stolze (-200), Rafa Garcia (-300) @ +170
As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). For this week's parlay, I decided to put together a trifecta of chalk that I felt most comfortable in.
Barberena, who has been a fighter that I've been cashing on since his battles with Warlley Alves and Sage Northcutt, faces Jason Witt. Witt may be making a late-prime run under the care of James Krause, but the Glory MMA fighter has traditionally struggled against UFC southpaws, as he's been knocked out by the last two (grapplers, no less).
Next up is Stolze, who faces Jared Gooden in a welterweight showdown. Between Gooden fighting on four days notice to the noticeable output difference between these two, it's hard not to like the scrappy Stolze to utilize his more diverse skills and kicks to make his American counterpart pay for his boxing-centric stance.
Lastly is Garcia, who meets Chris Gruetzemacher at lightweight. Gruetzemacher has only won two pro fights since 2014 and finds himself against a fighter who can both out-box and out-work him in almost every phase. Garcia has also been training in Colorada with the likes of Justin Gaethje and Trevor Wittman.
UFC Fight Night Underdogs
Rani Yahya @ +100, Phil Rowe @ +130, Trevin Jones @ +128
In short, all three fighters listed here are live dogs that I will be sprinkling on in conjunction with the chalky parlay and prop listed above.
All three underdogs are both the higher-ranked and more decorated grapplers who find themselves in fights with fighters that can't help but grapple. Add in the fact that these bouts will be taking place inside of the smaller cage, and I feel fairly confident that at least two of these dogs should cash come Saturday.
That said, if you like my Jones pick and are looking for a fun flyer in the prop department, then I suggest taking a look at "Jones inside the distance" at +200 and "Jones by submission" at +1500. If Jones does win, it'll probably be by another knockout or a guillotine choke given Ronnie Lawrence's propensity to give his head both standing on the feet and while shooting for takedowns.
Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!
And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.