UFC 265 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lewis vs. Gane

Bet of the Card: (2.5u) Two-Leg Parlay: Yadong vs. Kenney – Fight Goes the Distance (-164) + Lewis vs. Gane – Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (-200) for +141 (to Return 6.037 Units)

1st Leg of Parlay: Fight Goes the Distance @ -164

Yadong Song vs. Casey Kenney

Main Card Opener - Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:15 p.m. EST.

• 4 of Yadong Song’s last 5 fights have gone the distance, and he’s only ever been finished once in his 22-fight career.
• Casey Kenney has gone to a decision in 12 of his last 14 fights, and he’s never been finished in his 20-fight career (per Tapology.com).

This fight is going to be all action, but that’s not to say that I see a finish occurring.

Kenney is predominantly a decision fighter, at least when facing against top level opposition. In short, he manages range well and often looks to utilize his evasive striking. And when in close, he ties up and pushes his opponents up against the cage in an attempt to wear them down. The style that he looks to implement is ideal for betting overs on his fights, as although he does have paths to secure finishes, he doesn’t really have the power to get it done when striking, and on the mat, he rarely is able to maintain dominate top control, which hinders his ability to commit to submission attempts.

Yadong is a young and improving prospect, and although he has a decent number of finishes on his record, it’d be difficult to overlook the fact that he’s been largely going to decisions now that he’s fighting against other elite bantamweights. He’s got power in his hands for sure, but against Kenney, a fighter who is so difficult to land impactful shots on, let alone stun, it’s going to take something very special from Yadong to score the KO.

Ultimately, I expect a wild fight, one where we see both guys having their moments on the feet, in clinch situations along the cage, and on the mat. Yadong might get some clean blows in, but with Kenney’s durability and propensity to slip punches, I see him staying safe and dragging the fight to a decision. I’m taking this bout to go the distance as the opening leg of my two-fight parlay.

2nd Leg of Parlay: Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance @ -200

(0.5u) Ciryl Gane via Submission @ +1200 (to Return 6.5 Units)

Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane

Main Event – UFC Heavyweight Interim Championship (265lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:15 a.m. EST.

• Over the past 10 years, Derrick Lewis has been in 10 five round main events, none of which have gone to a decision (per Tapology.com).
• Ciryl Gane has won 3 of his 9 fights via submission, which is a sizable share given that he comes from a kickboxing background.  

Closing my parlay is the “Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance” prop on the main event. At around -200, it does appear to be a bit chalky, but for a 5 round heavyweight fight between top contenders, it is actually much cheaper than I’d expect to see.

I know that Gane isn’t always the most aggressive chaser of finishes, especially against the better strikers in the division, but in this particular matchup, I feel like there’s going to be plenty of opportunity for him to secure one.

For starters, Lewis has only lost via decision twice in his 32-fight career, with both coming over a decade ago, and in three round fights (per Sherdog.com). Since then, however, he’s been finished in all of his losses, and the 4 decisions he’s gone to, he’s won. What I’m trying to say is, if he’s not likely to win the fight on the scorecards, he generally looks to force the finish, either for himself or his opponent.

As I’ve already mentioned, Gane isn’t a fighter who will recklessly try to get a stoppage win, particularly against dangerous opposition. We saw this in his most recent fights against Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, but the difference between them and Derrick Lewis is, they both were able to defend and looked content to lose a unanimous 5 round decision, whereas Lewis (pictured below) isn’t nearly as defensively sound as those guys, and he certainly isn’t sticking around any longer than he needs to.

I see Gane having his way with Lewis wherever this fight goes. It seems he has almost every advantage in this fight over him, other than power and experience. This sounds like I’m making a case to bet Gane here, and although I don’t mind his -333 price tag (best odds), I actually much prefer betting the fight to end inside the distance. Lewis’ main, and arguably only path to victory, is to land one of his absolute bombs on Gane, as his chances of winning a decision or securing a submission, are next to none.

With Gane, I can see ways that he draws this out for 25-minutes, but in a massive PPV headlining spot, with the world watching, I see him turning up his game even more, and it resulting in him getting the finish. I can see him securing this at any point in the fight, either with some wicked shot early, or later in the fight, once Lewis is fatigued. Lewis has previously looked vulnerable when kicked to the mid-sector, and I could see that being pivotal in this fight, should Gane look to throw a barrage of body kicks, as he’s been known to do.

As an additional play to my parlay piece, I’m also taking a stab on Ciryl Gane to win via submission at +1200. He’s one of the few well-rounded heavyweights that actively venture into all aspects of MMA, and if he looks to take Lewis to the mat, or if he’s able to drop Lewis, I could easily see him working to advance position, and searching for submissions.

(2u) Michael Chiesa Moneyline @ +100 (to Return 4 Units)

(0.5u) Fight to End via Submission @ +460 (to Return 2.8 Units)

Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque

Main Card - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:15 p.m. EST.

• Michael Chiesa has looked the best we’ve ever seen him since moving up to welterweight, and this is reflected by the 4-fight win streak he’s riding into this bout.  
• Between them, Chiesa and Luque have a combined 18 submission victories (making up 47% of their overall wins), and 5 submission defeats (working out to 45% of their collective losses) (per Sherdog.com).

In my breakdown for Chiesa’s last fight against Neil Magny, I said that I’d need to see him put on another masterful performance before I could truly consider him to be a legitimate welterweight contender. Well, he only went out there and did it. He out-worked and out-cardioed the decision machine that is Neil Magny. Beating Magny is no easy task, especially over 25-minutes, and as a result, I’m now a Michael Chiesa believer.

My concern with Chiesa when he fought at lightweight was his cardio. He was the biggest lightweight you were ever going to see, and in retrospect, it’s easy to see the effect that had on his gas tank, and it clearly played a roll in his losses. But now, up at welterweight, he looks like another guy entirely. His striking could still be improved, but his pace and wrestling is what makes him a force to be reckoned with.

Luque is skilled in all facets of MMA, but his biggest weakness, is his takedown defense, which isn’t ideal when he’s taking on someone who’s almost exclusively going to be looking to take the fight to the mat. Off his back, Luque is still a dangerous fighter due to his submission grappling, but with Chiesa 2.0 looking as good as he has, I tend to see Luque just getting smothered and held down.

When striking, Luque will of course have the edge, but Chiesa is savvy enough to know not to simply stand and trade with Luque for any length of time. I trust Chiesa’s process of looking for the takedown, improving his position, and either taking minutes off the clock, or searching for submissions. That for me, is why I see him as an excellent play in a closely lined fight against a fighter who is prone to getting taken down. Sure, Luque is exceptionally dangerous everywhere, but Chiesa has the style to make himself look like a -300 favorite if he’s able to execute his gameplan, and that is some serious upside for what is a 50/50 proposition.

I’m taking Michael Chiesa’s moneyline, as well as a half unit play on the “Fight to End via Submission” prop, as the majority of Chiesa’s wins have come via submission (11 of 18 – not including his bouts on The Ultimate Fighter) (per Sherdog.com), and it offers a nice hedge, should he revert to his old ways of fatiguing and getting caught in a submission himself.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane / #UFC265

Location & Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas, United States

Date: Saturday, August 7th, 2021

Start time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST, Prelims: 8 p.m. EST., Early Prelims: 6 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on PPV, Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+, Early Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC 265: Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Main Event Prediction

Heavyweight (265lbs): Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane – Gane via Submission

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Main Card Predictions

Bantamweight (135lbs): José Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz – Aldo via Decision

Welterweight (170lbs): Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque – Chiesa via Submission

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill – Torres via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Yadong Song vs. Casey Kenney – Kenney via Decision

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Prelim Card Predictions

Lightweight (155lbs): Bobby Green vs. Rafael Fiziev – Fiziev via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Vince Morales vs. Drako Rodriguez – Morales via KO/TKO

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman – Menifield via KO/TKO

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Jessica Penne – Kowalkiewicz via Decision

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Early Prelim Card Predictions

Flyweight (125lbs): Manel Kape vs. Ode Osbourne – Kape via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Miles Johns vs. Anderson dos Santos – Johns via Decision

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Victoria Leonardo vs. Melissa Gatto – Leonardo via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Jamey Simmons – Munoz via Submission

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

FAQ

What time does Lewis vs. Gane Start?

Derrick Lewis vs. Cyril Gane is the UFC 265 main event.  The UFC 265 main card starts at 10:00 PM ET, with Lewis vs. Gane expected to get underway around midnight.

How to watch UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane is available on PPV. The early prelims, prelims and main card can all be watched on ESPN+.

Why isn't Amanda Nunes fighting at UFC 265?

Amanda Nunes was originally scheduled to fight in the co-main event at UFC 265. Unfortunately, Nunes tested positive for COVID-19 and her fight against Julianna Pena was postponed