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MMA analyst and expert Dan Tom is back for this week's massive UFC 265 card, coming our way from Houston, TX. Don't miss Dan's underdog, parlay and prop picks for Satuday's event, along with his Lewis vs. Gane breakdown.

UFC 265 Prop Picks & Parlay: Derrick Lewis' Homecoming Against Cyril Gane

With the UFC in full swing throughout 2021, we here at OddsChecker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

UFC 265 Main Event: Derrick Lewis vs. Cyril Gane

The main event for UFC 265 features an interim title fight at heavyweight between Derrick Lewis (+270) and Ciryl Gane (-355).

Although I officially sided with Gane to win across five rounds for his stellar distance management and ability to work the body, I can't help but question any line north of 2-1 in a division full of fighters who can flip the odds with just one punch. For that reason, I believe this is a classic dog or pass spot, as my heart will be with Lewis and his bettors.

I also suspect that the hometown crowd in Houston could play a real factor, as we will likely get to see if Gane can keep his cool and stick to the game plan under the pressure he'll likely be getting from a booing crowd. These sort of intangibles could jeopardize total plays or contrarian decision props, making this matchup all the more difficult to trust from a betting perspective.

Click here for complete Derrick Lewis vs. Cyril Gane odds

UFC 265 Parlay

2-Leg Parlay: Manel Kape (-200) and Miles Johns (-200) @ +125

As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). For this week's parlay, I decided to go with a chalk pairing that could produce plus money early on in the card.

For the first leg, I opted to go with Manel Kape. Although Kape may have come up short in his first two fights with the UFC, the 27-year-old was, in his defense, tasked with particularly tough opposition. That said, between the wealth of high-level training opportunities currently being afforded to Kape to the fact that his opponent, Ode Osbourne, will be dropping down the flyweight for the first time in his career, I find myself siding with the representative from Portugal to get it done.

Lastly, I decided to go with Miles Johns, who faces Anderson dos Santos. Despite dos Santos always being a live dog in the sense that he'll fight for your money, it's hard not to like the potential improvements of Johns, who is nearly a decade younger than his Brazilian foe. Couple that with the American's advantages in the wrestling and boxing department, and I suspect that Johns is the one with his hand raised this Saturday.

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UFC 265 Underdog Play

Ed Herman @ +205

Ed Herman vs. Alonzo Menifield odds

In case you haven't noticed, I tend to value older, gritty underdogs that the general public and casual bettors usually overlook. For that reason, I decided to take a shot on Ed Herman, who faces Alonzo Menifeild.

Menifield may look the proverbial part in multiple ways, but I'm still not sold that he has the gas tank to effectively fight past the first seven minutes of a contest. Add in the fact the Menifield has the propensity to crowd his work standing, and I suspect that the Texan falls into his foe's wheelhouse of the clinch – a place where I see Herman earning a comeback finish from.

UFC 265 Prop Pick

Karolina Kowalkiewicz by decision @ +120

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Jessica Penne odds

Despite Texas not typically being a place that dispenses reliable scorecards, I have a hard time not seeing Karolina Kowalkiewicz roll past Jessica Penne from a stylistic perspective.

Don't get me wrong: I'm a fan of Penne and past accomplishments, I'm just not sure her non-physically imposing style can reliably earn her wins in 2021 (regardless of what the judges said in her last fight). Sure, Kowalkiewicz hasn't exactly looked inspiring in the losing streak that she is currently on, but her clinch competency and high-output style should serve her well en route to a decision win.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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