UFC Fight Night Predictions: UFC Vegas 36, Brunson vs. Till, a Parlay, and an Underdog
With the UFC in full swing throughout 2021, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till Main Event
The main event for UFC Vegas 36 features a southpaw standoff at middleweight between Derek Brunson (+154) and Darren Till (-184).
Despite Till receiving the designation as the favorite from both a betting and promotional perspective, one could argue that Brunson – who is on a four-fight winning streak – has more value than given credit for in this spot.
Sure, Brunson could certainly get caught with a counter early or fall apart late, given the sharpness and toughness of Till. But between Brunson being the superior grappler in the smaller cage to the added travel intangibles that Till had to cater to, I can't help but side with the underdog here.
I may sprinkle on the Brunson money line depending on how the plays I'm about to share with you below go, but I ultimately believe that the under 3.5 rounds at +105 is worth taking a look at as a potential addition or hedge attempt if you're taking a side.
Regardless of who you like, I suspect that Till is too dangerous for Brunson to bank on going to a decision, as this could be a do-or-die dynamic that lasts as long as the American's gas tank will allow.
UFC Fight Night Underdog Pick:
In a card full of tempting underdogs, I somewhat surprisingly ended up on David Zawada in this spot.
The German representative takes on Texas' Alex Morono, taking this fight on just over one week's notice.
On the other hand, Zawada looks to have gotten in another full training camp stateside at American Top Team, as he was initially preparing to fight Sergey Khandozhko. Zawada may not have the best UFC record on paper, but he's been in deceptively difficult matchups that were very close to going his way.
Although Zawada's aggression can sometimes open him up for takedowns, I suspect he has the stronger hips and better wrestling techniques in this bout. I also believe that Zawada's counter left hook and crushing leg kicks will come in handy against a fighter who can be overly aggressive and defensively porous in those particular departments.
Neither fighter is afraid of a dogfight, but I'll side with the more durable party in Zawada, as he'll be better prepared if the battle goes long.
UFC Fight Night Parlay
Leg 1- Jonathan Martinez (-165)
Leg 2- Marc-Andre Barriault (-170)
2-Leg Parlay +155
As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). For this week's parlay, I decided to go with a chalk pairing that could produce plus money early on in the card.
For the first leg, I ended up backing Jonathan Martinez, who faces Mexico's, Marcelo Rojo. Despite suffering his first knockout loss in his last outing, Martinez is still a fighter I've been relatively high on for his southpaw stylings and overall improvements.
Since moving shop to Factory-X Muay Thai in Colorado, everything from Martinez's cage wrestling to scrambling has improved, as I wouldn't be surprised to see him follow the action to the floor on Saturday. That said, it's the open-stance kicks and southpaw straights that I see being problematic for Rojo, given what we saw Charles Jourdain do to him from that stance.
Should Martinez stay focused and survive Rojo's early storms, I suspect that the Mexican fighter's trend of falling apart in the third round will be obliged by Martinez (as Martinez in round 3 can currently be found in the neighborhood of +1000).
For my second leg, I ended up backing Marc-Andre Barriault over the dangerous Dalcha Lungiambula.
Despite being insanely strong and having a fantastic team behind him, I can't help but suspect that a durable grinder like Barriault could end up being stylistic kryptonite for a fighter with Lungiambula's sensibilities.
Lungiambula, who seems hardwired to do everything with maximum effort, appears to have an inherent stiffness to his style that may be difficult to coach out of him. And though Lungiambula could go the route of banking rounds via control time, I'm not sure that Barriault – who relocated his camp to Sanford MMA to shore up holes – will be a willing participant in that sort of game plan.
So basically, unless Lungiambula can become the first person to stop Barriault, I suspect that the Canadian outworks him down the stretch, possibly earning a third-round finish in the process (which currently sits in the neighborhood of +1100, for those interested).
Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!
And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.
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