UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Santos vs. Walker

MMA handicapper Christian Broughton bagged a profit of over 26 units across August and September! Looking to get off to a hot start in October, he sets his sight on this weekend’s card, UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Christian Broughton
Thu, September 30, 1:12 PM EDT

Bet of the Card: (2u) Under 1.5 Rounds @ +105 (to Return 4.1 Units)

Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker

Main Event – Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:45 p.m. EST.

  • Santos and Walker have a combined 53 pro fights, 33 of which they have won inside the distance, and 10 of which they have lost inside the distance (that works out to 81% of their fights resulting in finishes, either for or against them) (per Tapology.com).
  • 5 of Johnny Walker’s 6 UFC bouts have ended inside of the first round.

I can’t speak highly enough about this fight. Both guys are absolute wild men, who throw with reckless abandon and can explode with hellacious power. Technically, Santos is the superior (pictured below), in just about every aspect. However, with him now being 37-years-old, and riding a 3-fight losing streak, albeit to top competition, it’s difficult to see where he’s now going to be at, both physically and mentally.

Both guys have shown tendencies to get rocked in fights, but Johnny Walker is on a whole other level to Santos. We’ve seen him dropped 3 times in his last 3 fights (pictured below: him getting knocked out by Corey Anderson), and there’s a legendary video of him getting knocked unconscious roughly 5 or 6 times in about 30 seconds, when he was fighting on the Brazilian regional scene.

This should be a whirlwind of a scrap, and I couldn’t think of many other bouts in the UFC that’d require 5 x 5-minute rounds than this. I expect action from the off, with both men swinging ferociously, as soon as their opponent makes the slightest misstep, or over-extension. For this reason, I like taking the fight to go under 1.5 rounds. It’s a short line, and often I prefer looking to overs, especially on 1.5 round lines, but given this is a near 50/50 proposition, on something I could see occurring at least a 60% clip, it’s definitely getting a play from me. 

(1u) Niko Price via Submission @ +1600 (to Return 17 Units)

Niko Price vs. Alex Oliveira

Main Card - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:45 p.m. EST.

  • Niko Price has 2 submission wins within his 13 UFC fights, and he’s averaged 0.91 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which ranks him 9th amongst active welterweights in that category (per StatsLeaders.UFC.com).
  • 6 of Alex Oliveira’s 10 pro losses have come via submission (per Tapology.com).

Much like Saturday’s main event, this fight should be pure chaos for as long as it lasts. Price and Oliveira are quite similarly matched, in the sense that they love to be in ridiculously violent fights, and this is largely brought about with their reluctancy to care about their own wellbeing, and simply swing until their themselves, or their opponent falls down.

Neither fighter is riding much momentum into this one, given that Price is 0-2-1 over his last 3, and Oliveira is 2-5 over his last 7. That said, at least with Price, we’ve seen a fire inside of him, and a willingness to walk through the flames in search of a win. With Oliveira, however, he’s seemingly folded over at the first sign of adversity in his two most recent bouts, where he succumbed to his opponent’s pressure, and gave up chokes, both of which were in the first round.

Don’t get me wrong, if anyone is going to pull a fight out of a potentially declining Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira, it’s going to be someone like Niko Price, but until I see it happen, it just feels like Oliveira is going to stand and trade, until he no long feels like it, and he’ll look for a way out of the fight. Historically, he’s opted to get submitted, rather than knocked out, and although Price isn’t particularly a submission guy, he is an opportunist, and I can see him locking in a choke, given half a chance.

It’s a bit of a long-shot, but at +1600, Niko Price via submission is a no-brainer for me. He’s attempted a fair few submissions over the course of his UFC tenure, and “Cowboy” Oliveira has had the majority of his losses come by way of submission. There will be plenty of room for a knockout to fall on either side in this one, but if Oliveira really does have one foot out the door, in regard to his fighting career, then he may just roll over and make it 3 submission losses in a row.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker / UFC on ESPN+ 51 / UFC Fight Night 193 / UFC Vegas 38 / #UFCVegas38

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, October 2nd, 2021

Start time: Main Card: 7 p.m. EST, Prelims 4 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker Full Fight Card Predictions:

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker Main Event Prediction:

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker – Santos via KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker Main Card Predictions:

Middleweight (185lbs): Kevin Holland vs. Kyle Daukaus – Daukaus via Decision

Welterweight (170lbs): Niko Price vs. Alex Oliveira – Price via Submission

Middleweight (185lbs): Krzysztof Jotko vs. Misha Cirkunov – Cirkunov via Submission

Bantamweight (135lbs): Aspen Ladd vs. Macy Chiasson – Ladd via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Alexander Hernandez vs. Mike Breeden – Hernandez via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker Prelim Card Predictions:

Lightweight (155lbs): Joe Solecki vs. Jared Gordon – Solecki via Decision

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Antonina Shevchenko vs. Casey O'Neill – O’Neill via Decision

(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Karol Rosa vs. Bethe Correia – Rosa via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Devonte Smith vs. Jamie Mullarkey – Smith via KO/TKO

Bantamweight (135lbs): Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Gaetano Pirrello – Andrade via KO/TKO

(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Stephanie Egger vs. Shanna Young – Egger via Submission

Bantamweight (135lbs): Alejandro Perez vs. Johnny Eduardo – Perez via KO/TKO

*Fight card, bout order, and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Christian Broughton
ChrisRBroughton
A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.
Jul 2021
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