UFC Fight Night Predictions: Dern vs. Rodriguez Picks and Parlay

MMA handicapper Dan Tom is back with his best bets and predictions for UFC Fight Night, as well as his analysis of the main event, Dern vs. Rodriguez.
Dan Tom
Fri, October 8, 6:53 AM EDT

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Dern vs. Rodriguez Picks and Parlay

With the UFC in full swing throughout 2021, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

Last week's sheet was another winner, as we'll look to keep that positive momentum going here...

Click Here For Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

UFC Fight Night Main Event:

Dern vs. Rodriguez Odds

The main event for UFC Vegas 39 features a fun strawweight styles fight between Mackenzie Dern (-170) and Marina Rodriguez (+145).

With the under 2.5 rounds being bet to chalk, I believe that the value in this classic "striker versus grappler" pairing now lies on the contrarian side. And if my stylistic analysis is correct, then the underdog in Rodriguez should be live if she can survive the early submission threats from Dern.

Although Dern definitely has the ability to end this with just one takedown, I'm still not sold on her offensive wrestling or defensive wherewithal. Dern may have improved her conditioning and striking offense with her new camp in Southern California, but her overall defense doesn't seem to be getting much better.

For that reason, I suspect that Dern will find a rude awakening via counter strikes and clinch work. I ended up laying a unit on the Rodriguez money line at her current asking price and sprinkled small fliers on rounds 3 (+2000) and 4 (+2900).

Underdog Pick: Charles Rosa (+164)

Rosa vs. Jackson Odds

Despite feeling on a bit of an island with this play, I believe that there's a live dog in Charles Rosa, who initially opened as a -180 favorite opposite Damon Jackson.

Now, with the line being just short of a complete flip, one could justify a play on Rosa based on value alone. That said, my stylistic read also says that Rosa should be slightly favored in this spot for his proven staying power and – at least in this case – superior striking.

Jackson, to his credit, has made measurable improvements to his striking and strategy under the care of the well-respected Sayif Saud. I just think that Jackson's suspect chin contributes to his do-or-die sensibilities, which is an archetype that Rosa has traditionally done well against.

Rosa's propensity to fight off of his back has been worrisome since his return from surgery, but the Boston native showed in his last outing that perhaps his recent change of camp was just what the doctor ordered.

Now training at Sanford MMA (a camp that has been on fire), I suspect that Rosa will be perfectly equipped with plenty of wrestlers to work with, as well as some much-needed striking processes and fundamentals from Henri Hooft. Couple that with his already proven durability and staying power, and I suspect that Rosa breaks down Jackson with strikes and finds a submission before the final bell.

UFC Fight Night Parlay (+176)

Chris Gutierrez (-250), Matheus Nicolau (-200) and Steven Garcia (-315)

As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). I decided to go with a chalk trio that could produce plus money for this week's parlay.

For my first leg, I went with Chris Gutierrez, who faces Felipe Colares.

Although Gutierrez tends to fight a bit close from an output perspective, I think that his superior wrestling and striking will be a potent combination for Colares' porous defense. Colares also tends to have rough starts and fade late, as I suspect Gutierrez gets another leg kick stoppage come the third round.

For my second leg, I elected to go with Matheus Nicolau, who takes on Tim Elliott. Despite Elliott being in the form of his career under James Krause, I'm still not sure it will be enough to beat the younger and more technical Nicolau, who I see stopping takedowns and landing left hooks down the stretch.

Lastly, I decided to add Steven Garcia, who I see rolling over Charlie Ontiveros.

I dig Ontiveros' traditional martial arts swagger, but I just can't ignore his on-paper record of fragility. So I also sprinkled on the under 1.5 rounds at +105 as either an added bonus or hedge, as I don't see this fight making it out of the second round.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

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