UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Ladd vs. Dumont
Bet of the Card: (2u) Andrei Arlovski Moneyline @ +100 (to Return 4 Units)
(0.5u) Andrei Arlovski via Decision or Technical Decision @ +200 (to Return 1.5 Units)
Co-Main Event - Heavyweight (265lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:45 p.m. EST.
- Carlos Felipe has been out-landed in 3 of his 4 UFC fights, all of which were against inferior strikers to Andrei Arlovski (pictured below).
- Arlovski will benefit from a 3-inch height (6'3" vs. 6'0”) and 2-inch reach (77" vs. 75”) advantage over Felipe. (per UFCStats.com)
It’s gotten to the point where I’m no longer in disbelief to see that the betting market is giving me Arlovski at around a pick’em against a relatively low-level, inexperienced, and generally unimpressive fighter. Don’t get me wrong, Carlos Felipe is fairly good value for entertainment purposes, and there are fighters who I’d bet him against, but this is not one of them.
Arlovski has proven time-and-time again, that he is capable of slowing fights down immensely, and simply out-pointing his opponents with calculated distance striking, and veteran savvy. Every now and then, he does fight a legit fighter, and as a result, he’ll get finished or outclassed, largely due to the fact that he’s 42 years old, and has been in a ton of wars over his 51-fight MMA career.
Carlos Felipe is durable and looks to out-volume his opponents, two attributes that Arlovski is well accustomed to, and has adapted his gameplan to overcome. Felipe likes to get on the front foot and pressure his opponents, but with Arlovski’s effective counter-striking and Octagon-generalship, he shouldn’t have trouble stifling Felipe, as he has done against more physically equipped, and all-round superior fighters, most notably, Tanner Boser.
Ultimately, this fight is favored to go the distance (which I agree with), and I favor Arlovski to win a decision at a decently higher clip than Felipe, so by my logic, there is unquestionable value on Arlovski as the slight underdog. Sure, Felipe does have more finishing upside than Arlovski, given that Arlovski has been finished in the past, whereas Felipe hasn’t, but considering that all four of Felipe’s fights have gone the distance in the UFC, it’s not something I put too much stock into.
(2u) Fight Goes The Distance @ +105 (to Return 4.1 Units)
Main Card – Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:45 p.m. EST.
- Neither fighter has been finished in their combined 17 pro bouts (per Tapology.com).
This would generally be a spot where you’ll hear me come out and look to fade the extremely hyped and fairly untested prospect in Manon Fiorot. However, I actually think she could be the real deal, at least in terms of the current crop of flyweight contenders. That said, the line on this fight going the distance seems pretty ridiculous, and completely unwarranted. Sure, Fiorot may have put away both of her first competitors in the UFC, but neither were expected to compete with her on the feet, and Victoria Leonardo specifically, wasn’t considered the most capable of taking shots.
Mayra Bueno Silva is known mostly for her submission skills, but should she be unable to implement her grappling game, at least to its fullest effect, then she more than likely will be left to battle it out on the feet with Fiorot. In that situation, she should get out-worked, but I haven’t seen enough from Fiorot to think that she can just steamroll through her and get the finish.
I understand why the “fight goes the distance” prop is plus-money, due to one fighter being superior on the ground, and the other having shown a propensity to get finishes standing, but I trust in both fighters’ ability to withstand each other’s offense more often than not, and in doing so, get the fight to the scorecards.
(1u) Norma Dumont Moneyline @ +125 (to Return 2.25 Units)
(0.5u) Norma Dumont via Decision @ +300 (to Return 2 Units)
Main Event – (W) Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:15 p.m. EST.
- Norma Dumont has a significant strike defense of 67%, which is an impressive metric by itself, but even more so when compared to Aspen Ladd’s mere 46% Str. Def. percentage (per UFCStats.com).
It’s up for debate whether either one of these fighters deserves a UFC main event spot due to their shared history of failed weight cuts, and Dumont’s lack of experience within the promotion, but as can often be the case with the matchmakers, it’s what we’re getting, and most of us will tune in regardless.
I’m not particularly high on either fighter, but we’ve seen enough from both of them to assess, more or less, what we can expect from them. Ladd isn’t the best striker on the feet, but her power and physicality is what sets her apart, combined with her seemingly strong cardio, and tendency to scream when landing ground-n-pound, which often causes referees to give her TKO mercy stoppages. Dumont prefers to fight a slightly more calculated style, with her largely opting to counterstrike and mix in takedowns selectively, with her relying less on her physicality as a means of straight-up overpowering her competition.
There are some intangible concerns on both sides of this fight, with Dumont having such limited experience fighting at a high level, and with Ladd making her 145lb debut, whilst also returning from a long layoff due to a serious ACL and MCL tear (per Tapology.com). At just 26 years old, Ladd is 5 years Dumont’s junior, so we’d often expect to see larger jumps in development from her, but given that she’s been injured for a good stretch of time since we last saw her fight, it’s reasonable to think she may have made minimal improvements, if any at all.
After considering everything, I like Dumont as the dog in this spot. I’m not often someone who buys into fighters who look good across such a short sample size, but the manner in which she has fought recently, does gives me some confidence that she’s going to at least stick to a good gameplan and fight to the best of her abilities. She hasn’t faced many takedown attempts, but her clinch grappling, does lead me to believe that she could pose some issues for Ladd, who is a fighter who almost always relies on getting her opponents down to the mat, in order to get the win.
This won’t be the strongest case I’m ever going to make for a fighter, but I do think Dumont should be a slight favorite here. I like that she’s fought twice already at 145lbs in the UFC, against physical fighters. I see that she is responsible in all realms and looks to best utilize her skill edges, whilst also yielding a decent level of physicality, that could prove key to shutting down Ladd’s offense. It’s tough to say who will benefit most from this being a five round affair, but if Ladd goes hell for leather looking to TKO Dumont, should she land a takedown, she might just gas herself out, leaving her susceptible to getting beaten down the stretch.
As I illuded to, this is a close fight for a reason, but I favor Dumont to out-point Ladd at range, keep the fight where she wants it, and even potentially get a finish if Ladd gets a little overzealous at any point, and that’s enough for me to take a principled shot on the plus-money dog.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont / UFC on ESPN+ 53 / UFC Fight Night 195 / UFC Vegas 40 / #UFCVegas40
Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date: Saturday, October 16th, 2021
Start time: Main Card: 7 p.m. EST, Prelims 4 p.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont Full Fight Card Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont Main Event Prediction
(W) Featherweight (145lbs): Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont – Dumont via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont Main Card Predictions
Heavyweight (265lbs): Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe – Arlovski via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez – Miller via Submission
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva - Fiorot via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Julian Marquez vs. Jordan Wright – Marquez via Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont Prelim Card Predictions
Middleweight (185lbs): Andrew Sanchez vs. Bruno Silva – Silva via KO/TKO
Welterweight (170lbs): Ramazan Emeev vs. Danny Roberts – Emeev via Decision
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Lupita Godinez vs. Luana Carolina – Godinez via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Ľudovít Klein vs. Nate Landwehr – Klein via KO/TKO
Bantamweight (135lbs): Danaa Batgerel vs. Brandon Davis – Batgerel via Decision
(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Ariane Carnelossi vs. Istela Nunes – Carnelossi via KO/TKO
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.