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MMA handicapper Dan Tom is back with his best bets and predictions for UFC Fight Night, as well as his analysis of the main event, Ladd vs. Dumont.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Ladd vs. Dumont Picks and Parlay

With the UFC in full swing throughout 2021, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

Last week's sheet was another winner, as we'll look to keep that positive momentum going here...

Click Here For Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

UFC Fight Night Main Event:

Ladd vs. Dumont Odds

The main event for UFC Vegas 40 features an impromptu featherweight fight between Aspen Ladd (-138) and Norma Dumont (+112).

With the under 4.5 rounds being bet to chalk, I believe that the value in this matchup lies with the underdog. Ladd is coming off of a two-week turnaround where she suffered another rough weight cut on the scales (smacking of a similar scene to the one we saw before her knockout loss to Germaine de Randamie).

Couple that with a two-year layoff and tough stylistic challenge, and I suspect that we see Ladd struggle against a natural featherweight who can competently counter and fight from the clinch. For that reason, I sprinkled some dollars on the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt in Dumont to get it done this Saturday.

UFC Fight Night Parlay (+146)

Julian Marquez (-250), Manon Fiorot (-250) and Ludovit Klein (-390) for +146

As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). I decided to go with a chalk trio that could produce plus money for this week's parlay.

Wright vs. Marquez

I elected to go with Julian Marquez, who is set to meet Jordan Wright for my first leg.

Wright is an affable guy who is easy to like, but his do-or-die nature tends to rear its head for the worst whenever skilled fighters pressure him. For that reason, I found it hard not to back a finisher like Marquez, as he's still yet to be stopped as a pro.

I also sprinkled on Marquez to win by submission (+225), as well as in rounds 1 (+200) and 2 (+450), for those interested.

Fiorot vs. Bueno

For my second leg, I decided to back Manon Fiorot, who faces Myra Bueno Silva.

Despite backing Silva in her last outing, I don't suspect that her opportunistic game will do her any favors here. Basically, I believe that Silva's porous defense and footwork will give Fiorot's southpaw stylings plenty to work with down the stretch.

Klein vs. Landwehr

Last but not least, I decided to attach another southpaw to the ticket in Ludovit Klein.

Klein faces one of my favorite wildmen in Nate Landwehr, who tends to get into wars and put himself into danger to get the win. But with Klein training with Sanford MMA (a team that both have a streak with their southpaws and has already beaten Landwehr), I suspect that Klein's sharp finishing instincts secure him the win within the first half of the fight.

Prop Play: Jim Miller by Submission (+250)

Despite "Jim Miller by submission" being one of the few auto-bets that I like to biasedly take shots on, I can honestly say that there's some solid value on this prop.

Sure, the price might not be the sexiest, but Miller taking a UFC newcomer like Erick Gonzalez to school should surprise no one. Gonzalez is an experienced Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt to gets a majority of his wins on the feet, as this seems like a deserved setup fight for Miller.

Gonzalez has also lost to the lone UFC southpaw he's faced in Humberto Bandenay, who was one of the worst fighters to compete in the UFC in the last decade. Couple that with the lack of takedown defense he displayed opposite Rafa Garcia, and I see Miller taking Gonzalez down and forcing him to give his back by the end of the first round.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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