Oct 21, 5:05am | 4 min read

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Costa vs. Vettori

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Last week MMA handicapper Christian Broughton swept his picks, going 5-0 and returning 7.85 units of profit. Scroll down to find out what he has in store for this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

ANALYSIS

Bet of the Card: (2.4u) Over 3.5 Rounds @ -120 (to Return 4.4 Units)

Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori

Main Event - Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 6:45 p.m. EST.

Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori have a combined 30-5-1 pro record between them, with only one of their defeats coming inside the distance (per Tapology.com).
Marvin Vettori has been to a decision in 9 of his last 10 fights, including all 3 of his 5 round fights.

This is a tough fight to call. On one side, you’ve got Paulo Costa, a man known for his pressure striking and murderous power. On the other, is Marvin Vettori (pictured below), who is capable of awkwardly out-voluming his opponents at range, and can decisively claim rounds in his favor, when he’s able to take the fight to the mat and maintain top control.

I lean towards Vettori on the moneyline, due to his fairly solid game planning and proven track record of fighting to his strengths and claiming decisions on pure willpower and cardio. That said, Costa is probably the most well-rounded fighter Vettori will have fought up until this point, and he’s got the durability that can allow him to turn any one of his fights into a frantic brawl.

I think this comes down to how good you think Costa really is (pictured below: on the right). If you believe him to be near-elite, then he should be able to hang around with Vettori, punishing him on the feet, and perhaps even on the ground if he’s able to get on top. However, if you think that he’s a one-dimensional brawler with potential cardio issues, then someone like Vettori, who has shown that he’s got a great chin and a serviceable skillset, should mostly just out-maneuver and out-work Costa over the course of 25-minutes.

I’m not completely decided as to where I stand, but where I do feel most confident, is that both fighters are tough and durable. Costa’s loss to Adesanya doesn’t concern me, mostly because he fought a terrible gameplan and thus left himself vulnerable, which against someone with the striking pedigree of Adesanya, will capitalize upon. Outside of that, neither fighter has really been fazed by anything in the Octagon, and that goes for both on the feet and on the ground.

Sure, Costa can put anyone’s lights out given half a chance, but if Vettori can survive fairly comfortably against Adesanya twice on the feet for a combined 8 rounds, then he can also avoid Costa’s initial onslaught for the first 7.5 minutes. As for Vettori’s offense, he’s not a power puncher, and in a straight submission-grappling match, I’d actually favor Costa, so I’m not worried about him posing much of a submission threat early.

For all these reasons, I like taking the over 3.5 rounds in this one. It should be scrappy and gritty, but I trust in both men to deal with the other’s offense early, and in doing so, take this one late, with a decision likely to follow.

(2u) Jamie Pickett Moneyline @ +200 (to Return 6 Units)

(0.5u) Jamie Pickett via Decision @ +400 (to Return 2.5 Units)

Jamie Pickett vs. Laureano Staropoli

Preliminary Card - Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 2:40 p.m. EST.

Jamie Pickett will benefit from a 1-inch height and an 8.5-inch reach advantage over Staropoli (per Tapology.com).
Laureano Staropoli has lost his last 3 fights via decision, in which, he’s been out-landed on strikes and given up 2+ takedowns in each (per UFCStats.com).

Jamie Pickett did me dirty last time when he got KO/TKO’ed early in the first by the meme factory that is “The Beverly Hills Ninja”, Jordan Wright. If we never got to see that fight play out, I think we’d see this lined at around a pick’em. But, instead, we’ve got Pickett as a 2-to-1 dog, and it’s simply too wide.

Staropoli seemed like he might be half-decent after he entered the UFC’s welterweight division and went 2-0 as a young 25-year-old. However, since then, he’s shown a glaring lack of improvement, volume, and fight IQ. He’s even had to move up a weight class, after a significant weight miss at 170lbs. I still look upon Staropoli as a fighter who can win fights in the UFC, but with him no longer benefiting from his larger frame at welterweight, and his seemingly non-existent knockout power, it’s really hard to put much stock in him, especially as favorite.

Don’t get me wrong, Pickett is no world beater, but he’s got the size and strength overmatch Staropoli physically, whilst being able to match him for volume, and yielding the wrestling-upside to give him strong chances to win minutes on the mat.

I’m not in love with going to the betting window to put my money on Jamie Pickett again, but at +200, it’s simply too wide to pass up on in this spot, and it’s worthy of a bet from me.

(1u) Jai Herbert to Win Inside the Distance @ +120 (to Return 2.2 Units)

(0.5u) Jai Herbert to Win in Round 1 @ +300 (to Return 2 Units)

Khama Worthy vs. Jai Herbert

Preliminary Card – Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 2:20 p.m. EST.

All 8 of Khama Worthy’s losses have come inside the distance (7 KO/TKO’s, 1 Submission), and 5 of them have been in round 1.
9 of Jai Herbert’s 10 wins have come via stoppage (8 KO/TKO’s, 1 Submission) (per Tapology.com).

My final plays for the card are on Jai Herbert to win inside the distance and in round 1.

Both of these guys love to throw hands and create chaos. And, although we’ve seen Herbert get knocked out in the UFC, by Francisco Trinaldo of all people, his durability is still a question mark, whereas Worthy’s chin is confirmed as being terrible.

Worthy started off well in the UFC, going 2-0 against decent opposition. However, he’s now sitting at 2-2, and riding back-to-back first-round KO losses, both of which came inside of 2-minutes.

It feels a little chalky taking Herbert to get the stoppage here at just over even-money, but I know he’s got slick and powerful hands, and there’s no question that he’s got the potential to put Khama Worthy to sleep at over a 50% clip.

Expect this one to be fast and ferrous, but with Jai Herbert, more often than not, landing the penultimate blow, and getting his hand raised.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori / UFC on ESPN+ 54 / UFC Fight Night 196 / UFC Vegas 41 / #UFCVegas41

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, October 23rd, 2021

Start time: Main Card: 4 p.m. EST, Prelims 1 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori