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MMA handicapper Dan Tom is back with his best bets and predictions for UFC Fight Night, as well as his analysis of the main event, Costa vs. Vettori.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Costa vs. Vettori Picks, Parlay, and Underdog

With the UFC in full swing throughout 2021, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

Click Here For Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

UFC Fight Night Main Event

Costa vs. Vettori Odds

The main event for UFC Vegas 41 features an impromptu light heavyweight fight between Paulo Costa (+150) and Marvin Vettori (-178).

Between the wild weight negotiations on fight week to the fact that the betting line already flipped beforehand, I find myself drifting further and further away from a play here. Not only did Vettori not make Costa cut to a catchweight, but the Italian fighter ended up accepting this fight all the way up at 205 pounds.

Although this is obviously a big flag for Costa's side of things, I do worry that Vettori's eagerness and machismo could be allowing him to walk right into a trap. That said, I'll still be picking Vettori to survive the early storms en route to winning a decision on the scorecards.

If you also feel me on this fight going long, then you can find decision props at most houses for plus money. But if you think that this main attraction will be as violent as advertised, then perhaps you should consider kicking for coverage by looking at chalky totals like under 4.5 rounds.

UFC Fight Night Parlay (+113)

Seung Woo Choi (-290), Mason Jones (-440) and Edwards-Clark over 2.5 (-340) 

As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). For this week's parlay, I decided to go with a chalk trio that could produce plus money.

For my first leg, I elected to go with Seung Woo Choi, who faces Alex Caceres.

Caceres is a veteran who has played spoiler before, but I believe that the size and style matchup will be too much here. Additionally, Caceres traditionally lacks the offensive wrestling chops to overpower his Korean foe, as I suspect that Choi's cross-hook counters pay real dividends against a southpaw.

For my second leg, I decided to attach Mason Jones, who will welcome David Onama to the UFC.

Onama actually looks like a skilled striker with a bright future, and I just think that Jones will be too much on short notice. Not only is Jones a durable fighter with solid boxing and body punching, but the Welshman should be the better submission grappler and wrestler by a good stretch.

Add in an experience edge to the late-notice intangibles, and I ended up sprinkling on Jones to survive a crazy first round in order to come back and win in rounds 2 (+380) or 3 (+900).

Last but not least, I went with an over to close out this week's parlay.

Although I'm officially picking Jessica-Rose Clark to win via wrestling and leg kicks, there's something about Joselyne Edwards' power and potential skill jumps that are scaring me off the side. And given that there is only one stoppage loss between both ladies, I figured that leaning into a chalky over may be the safest bet for the purpose in mind.

Underdog Pick: Ricky Glenn (+360)

Considering that I'm betting on the second-biggest underdog of the entire card, I won't blame anyone for not following me off this cliff. That said, I do believe that Ricky Glenn has a better shot at beating Grant Dawson than the odds indicate.

Glenn may be taking this booking on short notice, but the MMA veteran has been in shape and asking for a fight for some time. This will also be the first southpaw of Dawson's UFC career, as he was originally training for an orthodox jiu-jitsu fighter.

Don't get me wrong: Dawson is the deserved favorite, as his cage wrestling and transitional grappling should provide him a path to win a decision on paper. However, I just can't ignore the fact that Glenn is typically most dangerous in the in-between spaces where Dawson can get out of position, which is why I'm taking a small flier on the dog in this spot.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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