UFC 267 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
Bet of the Card: (2u) Fight Goes the Distance @ -118 (to Return 3.7 Units)
Co-Main Event –UFC Interim Bantamweight (135lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: 4:15 p.m. EST.
- Across Yan and Sandhagen’s combined 34 pro fights, they only have one loss inside the distance between them (per Tapology.com).
With the UFC Bantamweight Champion, Aljamain Sterling, on the shelf recovering from neck surgery, and T.J. Dillashaw unavailable to step in, the matchmakers have put together this all-action bout for an interim title.
Both fighters are seriously high-level strikers, and although Sandhagen’s height and reach makes him a treat from range (pictured below on the left), his tendency to throw ill-advised spinning attacks, and Yan’s more calculated and patient style, should give the edge to Yan for reliable minute-winning on the feet.
I’m a fan of Sandhagen’s versatile offense on the mat, but with Yan holding a significant advantage in the wrestling, I doubt we’ll get to see Sandhagen utilize his ground attacks much, unless Yan is happy to follow him to the canvas, in which case, Sandhagen will then likely be nullified by the technically savvy Russian’s top control.
This sounds like I’m making a case for betting Yan, and although I don’t hate his -235 price tag (best odds), I certainly wouldn’t be comfortable laying that much juice against Sandhagen, who’s tricky and throws a ton of volume, which makes him capable of drawing a close fight out of anyone.
Instead, I’m opting to bet on the fight to go the distance, at near even-money. This may seem like a risky proposition given that we could see well upwards of 100 significant strikes landed by both fighters across the 5 rounds, but I favor their defensive abilities, and their lack of reliance on one-shot KO’s, as the key to this going to the scorecards. It’s going to be a furiously contested war, and it won’t be easy watching with an overs bet in my hand, but it has to be done.
(1u) Dan Hooker Moneyline @ +500 (to Return 6 Units)
(0.5u) Dan Hooker to Win Inside the Distance @ +1000 (to Return 5.5 Units)
Main Card - Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 3:45 p.m. EST.
- Islam Makhachev has only 1 career loss, which came via 1st round knockout against Adriano Martins, who previously went an underwhelming 4-3 in the UFC.
I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Islam Makhachev is very good, but him sitting at around -700 against someone as dangerous as Dan Hooker (pictured above), is absolute insanity.
Don’t get me wrong, I can clearly see the path for Makhachev to take Hooker down multiple times and go onto win a unanimous 30-27 decision, but that’s not to say that it warrants this mammoth price tag.
Hooker will benefit from a 2-inch height and 5-inch reach advantage, which should enable him to further punctuate his notably better striking. On top of this, his takedown defense, although not perfect, sits at a reputable 80%, which could go a long way if Makhachev feels pressured to shoot takedowns at range whilst getting touch up on the feet. And finally, Hooker’s got a sneaky good guillotine choke, which should not be ignored, even against the highest of skilled Dagestani wrestlers.
All in all, Hooker is durable, he fights for your money, and he can be dangerous wherever the fight takes place, and that for me is more than sufficient reason for me to take a shot on him here as the sizeable underdog.
Main Event Prediction: Jan Blachowicz Moneyline @ -250 (PASS) & Jan Blachowicz to Win Inside the Distance @ +110 (PASS)
Main Event – UFC Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: 5 p.m. EST.
- Jan Blachowicz has won 9 of his last 10 fights, with 3 of his last 5 wins coming by way of KO/TKO.
I always aim to provide a bet for each card’s main event, but this week, I simply can’t do it. I can make a case that Blachowicz is a justified -250 favorite, and also that Teixeira is a live dog at over 2-to-1. And the same can be said for the over/under props. I could see it ending inside of 5 rounds at a decent clip, but I can also see possibilities for this to amble its way to the scorecards, enough so to keep me off playing the under. For these reasons, I’m simply going to stay away, unless there’s a serious odds shift between now and fight time.
As far as how I see it playing out, I think we have to look towards Blachowicz and the fight not going the distance. Blachowicz, may not be getting any younger at 38-years-old, but next to the 42-year-old, 39-fight veteran, Glover Teixeira, he’s comparatively a spring chicken. Youth, of course, isn’t everything, but his durability could be. We know that Blachowicz has always been able to land shots and take shots, but with Teixeira, we’re seeing him get hit and hurt at a worryingly high frequency as of late. And, although he often battles through the adversity to take his opponents down and finish them on the mat (as pictured below against Ion Cutelaba), I’m not sure he’s going to be able to do that here.
Blachowicz is extremely physical, and even with Teixeira yielding his mythical old man strength, I just don’t see him being able to work in too many takedowns, and that’s providing he doesn’t get put to sleep early. Should Teixeira be able to get the fight to the mat, then yes, he is a danger to just about anyone, but Blachowicz is no slouch, and I believe his Jiu-Jitsu is at a level good enough to keep him safe, should he not be able to work his way back up to the feet.
Despite my belief that Blachowicz should be able to stay safe from Teixeira’s offense, it would be naive to completely overlook Teixeira as a finishing threat. Afterall, he still has heavy hands, and even with his advanced age, he’s shown us multiple times that he’s capable of going late into fights and wearing down his opponents.
With all this in mind, it really could play out any number of ways, but I do agree with the odds makers, in the sense that I do favor Jan Blachowicz (pictured above) quite a bit, and the most likely outcome is him by KO/TKO, which could realistically come early or late. And as I previously said, I won’t be betting it myself, as I don’t see enough value, but this is my lean for the fight.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC 267: Błachowicz vs. Teixeira / UFC 267: Jan vs. Glover / #UFC267
Location & Venue: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Date: Saturday, October 30th, 2021
Start time: Main Card: 2 p.m. EST, Prelims: 10:30 a.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Full Fight Card Predictions
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Main Event Prediction
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Jan Błachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira – Blachowicz via KO/TKO
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Main Card Predictions
Bantamweight (135lbs): Petr Yan vs. Cory Sandhagen – Yan via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Islam Makhachev vs. Dan Hooker – Hooker via KO/TKO
Heavyweight (265lbs): Alexander Volkov vs. Marcin Tybura – Volkov via KO/TKO
Welterweight (170lbs): Jingliang Li vs. Khamzat Chimaev – Chimaev via KO/TKO
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Magomed Ankalaev vs. Volkan Oezdemir – Ankalaev via KO/TKO
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Prelim Card Predictions
(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Amanda Ribas vs. Virna Jandiroba – Ribas via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Ricardo Ramos – Tukhugov via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Albert Duraev vs. Roman Kopylov – Duraev via Submission
Welterweight (170lbs): Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Benoit Saint-Denis – Zaleski via KO/TKO
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Michał Oleksiejczuk vs. Shamil Gamzatov – Oleksiejczuk via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Makwan Amirkhani vs. Lerone Murphy – Murphy via Decision
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira Early Prelim Card Predictions
Middleweight (185lbs): Andre Petroski vs. Yaozong Hu – Petroski via Submission
Lightweight (155lbs): Damir Ismagulov vs. Magomed Mustafaev – Ismagulov via Decision
Flyweight (125lbs): Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Allan Nascimento – Ulanbekov via Decision
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.