UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Holloway vs. Rodriguez

MMA handicapper Christian Broughton delivers his best bets for this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Christian Broughton
Thu, November 11, 9:56 AM EST

Bet of the Card: (2.5u) Two-Leg Parlay: Calvillo vs. Lee – Fight Goes The Distance (-250) + Holloway vs. Rodriguez – Over 2.5 Rounds (-225) for +102 (to Return 5.04 Units)

1st Leg of Parlay: Fight Goes The Distance @ -250

Cynthia Calvillo vs. Andrea Lee

Preliminary Card – Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 3:15 p.m. EST.

  • 6 of Cynthia Calvillo’s last 8 fights have gone to decision.
  • Andrea Lee has gone the distance in 6 of her 7 UFC fights.  

This is an extremely close bout, and I could see it going either way. Calvillo is seemingly the more technical in most aspects, particularly her grappling, but Lee is the significantly more physical fighter, and that could go a long way against Calvillo, who recently fought down at 115lbs.

I see a complete mixing of the martial arts here. We’ll likely see this fought on the feet, against the cage, and on the mat. But wherever it goes, I’m not convinced I see either woman getting a finish. Both are tricky on the ground, particularly Calvillo, but neither fighter has secured a submission finish over someone as tough and savvy as the opponent they’ve got in front of them now. As for getting a KO/TKO finish, neither are a noteworthy power puncher or an overwhelming volume striker, so barring an uncharacteristic cardio dump, or one person landing a once in a career insane KO blow, this should be largely a nonfactor.

Ultimately, I see this fight going to the scorecards at a very high clip, much more than the -225 price tag suggests. I’m taking the “fight to go the distance” prop as the opening leg of my two-fight parlay.

2nd Leg of Parlay: Over 2.5 Rounds @ -225

Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez

Main Event - Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 6:15 p.m. EST.

  • Each of Max Holloway’s last 13 fights have gone over 2.5 rounds.

Holloway should win this fight based on his forward pressure and volume. Rodriguez will have to put on a career performance to keep this one close, or land a ridiculous knockout blow against one of the most durable fighters we’ve ever seen. All this said, I don’t like Rodriquez as a +550 dog (best odds), and even with my confidence of Holloway rolling to victory, I’m just simply rarely ever laying around -700 in a fight that should play out in its entirely on the feet between two high-level strikers.

What I do like, however, is the over 2.5 rounds prop. Holloway isn’t a perennial finisher at the top level, at least not early in fights, and although we’ve seen Rodriquez wilt in the past (against Frankie Edgar), that was due to heavy wrestling and ground’n’pound pressure, not from striking on the feet. On the other side, Holloway is as tough as they come, and although I don’t doubt that Rodriguez has the capability to knockout anyone out, should he land one of his wild spinning attacks clean, I just don’t see it as anything but an extremely low-volume outcome.

I see a late finish for Holloway as entire possible but given that his style is predicated on accumulation and attrition, I just struggle to see him getting a finish through the opening half of the fight, at least with any regularity. For this reason, I’m taking this fight to go over 2.5 rounds, as the closing piece of my 2-leg parlay.

(2u) Cortney Casey Inside The Distance @ +320 (to Return 8.4 Units)

(0.5u) Cortney Casey to Win in Round 1 @ +800 (to Return 4.5 Units)

Cortney Casey vs. Liana Jojua

Preliminary Card - Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 2:15 p.m. EST.

  • 3 of Cortney Casey’s 5 UFC wins have come via stoppage, all of which were in the first round.
  • Liana Jojua has an 8-4 record, and 3 of her 4 losses have come inside the distance (per Tapology.com).

Cortney “Cast Iron” Casey (pictured above) is one of the few .500 fighters to have competed in the UFC over the past decade that I’d actually be disappointed if she was released from the promotion. The reason being is, she comes to put on a show, and constantly looks to finish fights. It doesn’t always pay off for her, particularly in regard to her getting her hand raised on the scorecards, but it does provide a decent level of entertainment, which can’t be said about most bouts within the 125lbs division.

An additional comment I will say about Casey, is that she’s a good barometer for telling whether her opponent is UFC calibre, depending upon whether they win or lose to her. With Jojua, I think it’s likely we see Casey further expose her as a young and heavily flawed fighter.

We’ve seen Jojua get pieced up on the feet by Miranda Maverick to a first round KO/TKO doctor stoppage, and we’ve seen Sarah Moras TKO her late in the 3rd after she fatigued massively, and I believe we’re going to see something similar out of Casey.

If this stays standing, Casey should torch her on the feet. She isn’t the most technical striker, but her desire to move forward and throw hard, lancing shots, will quickly accumulate on the fact of Jojua. This could invariably end up in another TKO stoppage, early or late, depending upon Jojua’s toughness. And, if the fight hits the mat, which is likely given that Jojua favors her wrestling and Casey doesn’t have the best takedown defense, then I’d actually expect Casey to reverse position and potentially lock up a submission, as I see her as the all-round better grappler as well.

All in all, wherever the fight takes place, I see danger for Jojua, and even if she’s able to stick it out through the first 1.5 or 2 rounds, then I still have reason to believe that her poor gas tank could easily result in Casey securing a late finish. I’m not against a play on Casey’s moneyline at -200, considering all the advantages I see for her, but if she’s going to payoff that price tag (make it look like value), then she’ll be putting on a performance worthy of making her “inside the distance” prop look like the far greater value play.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 

Event: UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez / UFC on ESPN+ 55 / UFC Fight Night 197 / UFC Vegas 42 / #UFCVegas42

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, November 13th, 2021

Start time: Main Card: 4 p.m. EST, Prelims: 1 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez

 

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Main Event Prediction

Featherweight (145lbs): Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez – Holloway via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Main Card Predictions

Heavyweight (265lbs): Ben Rothwell vs. Marcos Rogério de Lima – Rothwell via Submission

(W) Featherweight (145lbs): Felicia Spencer vs. Leah Letson – Spencer via Decision

Welterweight (170lbs): Miguel Baeza vs. Khaos Williams – Baeza via Decision

(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Yadong Song vs. Julio Arce – Yadong via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Prelim Card Predictions

Lightweight (155lbs): Thiago Moisés vs. Joel Alvarez – Moises via Decision

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Cynthia Calvillo vs. Andrea Lee – Lee via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Sean Woodson vs. Collin Anglin – Woodson via Decision

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Cortney Casey vs. Liana Jojua – Casey via KO/TKO

Lightweight (155lbs): Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Alves – Diakiese via Decision

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Da Un Jung vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu – Jung via Decision

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Christian Broughton
ChrisRBroughton
A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.
Jul 2021
Record
Wins
4
Losses
5
Push
0
ROI
-14.09%
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