UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Vieira vs. Tate

MMA handicapper Christian Broughton brings us his latest installment of picks ahead of this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
Christian Broughton
Wed, November 17, 9:39 AM EST

Bet of the Card: (3u) Sean Brady Moneyline @ -150 (to Return 5 Units)

Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady

Co-Main Event - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:45 p.m. EST.

  • Sean Brady has posted a 100% takedown defense accuracy across his first 4 UFC bouts (per UFCStats.com).

Betting on undefeated prospects always tends to make me feel a bit nauseous. One reason is that you’re normally forced to pay a premium to back the guy who has a nice shinny zero in the loss column, and the other is that most of the time they’re making steps up in competition, and we’re yet to know how they’re going to adjust to that fight-to-fight.

Michael Chiesa is undoubtably the best fighter Sean Brady will have faced to date come Saturday, and I’d be lying if I said that wasn’t a concern. That said, Brady is just simply the all-round better fighter. His striking is the more technical, he’s yet to give up a takedown in the UFC, and his jiu-jitsu looks slick for a guy who’s generally considered more of a wrestle-boxer.

Yes, he’s yet to face someone with Chiesa’s wrestling ability and ground skills, but I haven’t seen any sign of the deficiencies needed in Brady’s game to think that Chiesa is just going to run through him with his grappling. And, furthermore, even if he did have that edge, he’s going to have to be able to do it throughout the 15-minutes, as we’ve seen Brady has the gas tank to push a hard pace for the duration of fights.

All in all, it would be negligent to think that Chiesa couldn’t be a step up too far for Brady right now, but for what is a pretty damn cheap price, I’m willing to bet on the younger, more technically sound, and improving fighter in Sean Brady.

(2u) Tucker Lutz Moneyline @ +125 (to Return 4.5 Units)

Pat Sabatini vs. Tucker Lutz

Featured Preliminary Card - Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 5:40 p.m. EST.

  • Tucker Lutz comes into his fight this weekend riding a 12-fight win streak.

Lutz is a fighter who I could see getting out finessed against more polished opposition as he moves up the pecking order, but as of right now, I think he’s got the core skills and physicality to get past a guy like Sabatini.

Nothing against Sabatini, he’s an interesting and improving fighter, much like Lutz, but we’ve seen him get caught and nearly put away by Jamall Emmers, and we’ve witnessed him drop off late in fights, like when he lost the 3rd round to Tristan Connelly. He looks to be a fairly well-rounded and serviceable guy, with a sneaky good grappling game, but I just don’t see the reasoning for him being favored in this one.

Lutz fights with pressure and volume. His forward motion, takedowns, and heavy swinging shots can look tiresome, but he’s proven that he’ll cook his opponents before he himself succumbs to his output. He will have to be wary of engaging in the grappling with someone of Sabatini’s submission prowess, but I trust in his fight IQ and heavy top pressure keep him safe from any of Sabatini’s shenanigans on the mat.

Look for Lutz to bowl forward, pretty much throughout the fight. I expect him to edge his way to victory though his increased volume and effective striking and wrestling, and providing he manages to avoid getting submitted by Sabatini, he should look great value to get the win here as the plus-money ‘dog.

(1.5u) Miesha Tate Moneyline @ +105 (to Return 3.075 Units)

Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate

Main Event - (W) Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:15 p.m. EST.

  • Ketlen Vieira has been out-landed in significant strikes in 6 of her 7 UFC bouts (per UFCStats.com).
  • This will be Vieira’s first 5 round fight, whereas Miesha Tate already has 6 under her belt (per Tapology.com).

At first glance I was a bit hesitant about who I was going to pick in this fight, but after some consideration, it seems fairly clear to me that Tate is the side. That’s not to say that she should be a smash play, just to say that in a fight that’s lined as around a pick’em, she’s got the better upside, and the more proven floor.

Tate may now be 35-years-old, but physically she looks the best she ever has. She’s got a technical edge, veteran savvy, toughness, and 5 round fight experience, and that’s what I see taking her to victory in this one.

Vieira has benefited most when she has a size and strength advantage against her opponents, and although she will have that against Tate, it’s her questionable cardio that I feel will cost her most in this one. I expect Vieira to do good work early, outmuscling Tate in clinch and grappling situations, but losing in striking exchanges due to Tate’s better speed and manoeuvrability on the feet. This should make the fight a closely fought affair through the opening 2-to-3 rounds, but it’s as the fight extends beyond that where I see Tate taking over, thus either scoring a late finish or the decision victory.

Even after her faultless return fight again Marion Reneau, you still have to have questions about Tate’s ability to remain competitive against the top fighters of this newer generation, but the same can almost be said for Vieira, as she is yet to record her first win against someone who could be considered a top contender at 135lbs.

So, with everything considered, I just trust Tate more in almost every aspect, apart from raw strength and size, and for that reason, I like her a decent amount as the dog in this spot, which does have me a little surprised.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 

Event: UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate/ UFC on ESPN+ 56 / UFC Fight Night 198 / UFC Vegas 43 / #UFCVegas43

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, November 20th, 2021

Start time: Main Card: 6 p.m. EST, Prelims: 3 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate Miesha Tate

 

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate Main Event Prediction

(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate – Tate via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate Main Card Predictions

Welterweight (170lbs): Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady – Brady via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Rani Yahya vs. Kyung Ho Kang – Yahya via Submission

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Joanne Wood vs. Taila Santos – Wood via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Adrian Yanez vs. Davey Grant – Yanez via KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate Prelim Card Predictions

Featherweight (145lbs): Pat Sabatini vs. Tucker Lutz – Lutz via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Natan Levy vs. Rafa García – Levy via Decision

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Loma Lookboonmee vs. Lupita Godinez – Lookboonmee via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam – McKinney via Decision

Flyweight (125lbs): Cody Durden vs. Qileng Aori – Durden via Submission

Featherweight (145lbs): Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs. Sean Soriano – Soriano via KO/TKO

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Luana Pinheiro vs. Sam Hughes – Pinheiro via Submission

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Christian Broughton
ChrisRBroughton
A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.
Jul 2021
Record
Wins
4
Losses
5
Push
0
ROI
-14.09%
0Betslip

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