UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Font vs. Aldo
Bet of the Card: (3.5u) Jimmy Crute “Finish Only” Moneyline (if Decision No Action) @ -190 (to Return 5.342 Units)
(1u) Jimmy Crute via Submission @ +380 (to Return 4.8 Units)
(0.5u) Jimmy Crute via Round 1 Submission @ +850 (to Return 4.75 Units)
Main Card – Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:45 p.m. EST.
- Jimmy Crute has the highest Control Time Percentage (43.3%), Top Position Percentage (37.3%), and Submission Attempts Average Per 15 Min. (2.36) amongst active UFC light heavyweights (min. 5 UFC fights) (per StatsLeaders.UFC.com).
- Crute has a takedown accuracy of 80%, whereas Jamahal Hill has a takedown defense of just 57% (per UFCStats.com).
I understand why some people are taking the ‘dog shot on Jamahal Hill here, he’s tall and lengthy, and throws with volume. Against the bottom end fights, or one-dimensional strikers in the light heavyweight division, that can be more than enough to outclass the opposition. The issue here, however, is that he’s fighting against Jimmy Crute, a guy who I see posing problems against everyone at the top end of this division, and he’s skilled in all areas.
My biggest concern is the jab of Hill. Anthony Smith was effective with his against Crute in his last fight, and with the added range of Hill, it stands to reason that it could be even more of an issue in this fight. That said, Crute’s wrestling and grappling will be so much more pronounced here. Hill is yet to show much of a takedown defense game, and that’s come against far less skilled takedown artists than Crute.
I see the stand-up being close, despite Hill’s 2-inch height and 5-inch reach advantages (per UFCStats.com). As previously stated, the jab is a mild worrying in regard to Crute being able to close distance and utilize his offense, but even still, the added length of Hill should make it easier for Crute to telegraph the shots and make adjustments. Where I see this fight truly going in Crute’s favor, is when he gets in close, and forces Hill down to the mat. Crute is relentless with his takedowns, and his top game is dynamic and heavy (pictured below). Once on the ground, I see Hill struggling to get back up, and as time wears on, I lean towards Crute locking up a submission.
I’m taking Jimmy Crute’s “finish only” moneyline, as I see a gulf in class between these two fighters, and if Crute were not to get the win, I don’t see Hill winning inside the distance at any decent clip, meaning that this bet will push if it goes to the scorecards. On top of this, I’m also on Crute’s submission prop, as well as his first-round submission prop, as I can see plenty of time and opportunity for him to secure one, given what I expect from his offensive gameplan, and Hill’s grappling deficiencies.
(2u) Brad Riddell Moneyline @ +105 (to Return 4.1 Units)
Co-Main Event - Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:45 p.m. EST.
- Brad Riddell has been to a decision in all of his last 5 fights.
- 3 of Rafael Fiziev’s last 4 bouts have gone the distance.
This fight is heavily being touted as this weekend’s “people’s main event”, which doesn’t always mean a lot, but given that this card is headlined by none other than Jose Aldo, that’s certainly some high praise indeed.
Both guys are elite strikers and I anticipate seeing a full striking clinic from both men as a result. From a pure technicality edge, I think I’d just lean towards Fiziev, but the volume and cardio of Brad Riddell is what I see being the key difference-maker in this fight.
Look for this to be razor close in the first half of the fight, with both men getting in offense and exchanges. But, as the fight goes into the latter stages, look for Riddell to be the fighter coming on stronger, with more pressure and volume, as Fiziev begins to fatigue, as he did against Bobby Green in his last outing. This expected swing in momentum from even, to Riddell being the noticeably more active fighter, is what I see swinging this fight in his favor, and as a result, I see him as good value for money to get the win as a the slightest of ‘dogs.
(1u) Rob Font Moneyline @ -140 (to Return 1.714 Units)
(0.2u) Rob Font to Win in Round 4 @ +2000 (to Return 4.2 Units)
(0.2u) Rob Font to Win in Round 5 @ +2800 (to Return 5.8 Units)
Main Event - Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:15 a.m. EST.
- Rob Font comes into this weekend ridding a 4-fight win streak.
- Jose Aldo is 1-4 over the course of his last 5 five round fights, with all of his losses coming via KO/TKO.
I really hate to go against Jose Aldo in any spot, and it’s something I’ve very rarely done, but Font is the spot here in my opinion. I’m not going to go overboard on him, as this fight could play out extremely close, but I see some advantages in Font’s favor that steer me towards a small bet on him.
For starters, he’s going to benefit from an extra 1-inch in height and 1.5-inches in reach (per Tapology.com), it’s hardly a huge difference, but given Aldo’s technicality and ability to dig to the body, it’s definitely going to be of use to Font.
Next up is recent performances. Yes, Aldo looked sensational against Pedro Munhoz, and he got the job done against Marlon Vera, but in his 5 round fights, he’s started hot and faded horrendously, which is whether I place the biggest upside for betting Font in this fight.
On top of these points, it’s difficult to look past Font’s durability. He’s never been finished by strikes, and although he’s yet to take on a fighter quite like Jose Aldo, his toughness is going to go a hell of a long way.
Aldo will have the grappling upside and his devastating leg kicks, but with the former, it could lead to him fatiguing faster (more than anything), and with the latter, it’s still an under-utilized weapon of his at this stage of his career, thus making it difficult to bank on.
All in all, it should be an aggressive and fast placed striking display, with both fighters demonstrating high-level striking defense. The rate at which each fighter lands should be close, but with Font’s size and killer jab, I can see him just edging rounds, particularly as the fight goes later. It’s difficult to say whether Aldo is able to withstand a hard 5 rounds anymore, even against someone who produces less pressure than Holloway or Yan, but with some big numbers hanging on Font’s round 4 and 5 props, I feel inclined to pay for them just in case.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo / UFC on ESPN 31 / UFC Vegas 44 / #UFCVegas44
Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date: Saturday, December 4th, 2021
Start time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST, Prelims: 7 p.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo Full Fight Card Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo Main Event Prediction
Bantamweight (135lbs): Rob Font vs. José Aldo – Font via KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo Main Card Predictions
Lightweight (155lbs): Brad Riddell vs. Rafael Fiziev – Riddell via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Clay Guida vs. Leonardo Santos – Santos via Submission
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Jimmy Crute vs. Jamahal Hill – Crute via Submission
Middleweight (185lbs): Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis – Allen via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo Prelim Card Predictions
Middleweight (185lbs): Maki Pitolo vs. Duško Todorović – Todorovic via Submission
Flyweight (125lbs): Manel Kape vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov – Kape via Decision
Welterweight (170lbs): Jake Matthews vs. Jeremiah Wells – Matthews via Decision
(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Cheyanne Vlismas vs. Mallory Martin – Vlismas via Decision
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Alonzo Menifield vs. William Knight – Knight via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Claudio Puelles vs. Chris Gruetzemacher – Puelles via Submission
Heavyweight (265lbs): Jared Vanderaa vs. Azamat Murzakanov – Murzakanov via KO/TKO
Welterweight (170lbs): Alex Morono vs. Mickey Gall – Morono via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Louis Smolka vs. Vince Morales – Morales via Decision
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.
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