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MMA handicapper Dan Tom is back with his best bets and predictions for UFC Fight Night, as well as his analysis of the main event, Font vs. Aldo.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Font vs. Aldo Picks, Underdogs, and Props

With the UFC in full swing throughout 2021, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

Click Here For Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

UFC Fight Night Main Event

The main event for UFC Vegas 44 features a fun bantamweight battle between Rob Font (-145) and Jose Aldo (+125).

Font vs. Aldo Odds

Although I'm officially picking Aldo to win by decision, this is a very competitive contest on paper where you could honestly make a case for either fighter in any round. That said, I suspect that the second round will tell the story of this fight (assuming neither party sparks out the other in the first).

Both men deploy fantastic jabs, but I believe that Aldo's propensity to counter said shots could ultimately make the difference. Couple that with Font's suspect reactions towards meaningful pressure, and it was enough to convince me to take a small shot on the Aldo money line.

You don't have to follow me off of that cliff, but I do suggest looking at the under 4.5 rounds at (+110) for a possible hedge or bonus should either man finish the other before the final bell.

Underdog Picks

Live Dogs: Maki Pitolo (+140) and Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+220)

Outside of the main event, there are two other body-punching underdogs that caught my eye on this card.

Firstly, I elected to take a small shot on Maki Pitolo, who faces Dusko Todorovic.

Despite Pitolo dropping the ball on a couple of occasions, he has shown more skills and overall improvement than Todorovic since stepping onto the UFC stage. Between Todorovic's porous, trunk-based defense and the fact that Pitolo will be the better wrestler inside of the smaller cage, I feel that this is a winnable fight for the Hawaiian.

I also ended up taking a shot on Zhalgas Zhumagulov, who draws Manel Kape.

This is another fight where I'm fading a favorite that I haven't really been impressed by, as I believe that the line is way too wide for a competitive contest that will likely see the scorecards.

Not only is Zhumaglov a durable and well-rounded fighter that keeps a decent pace, but Kape – by all counts – appears to be coming into this fight with a somewhat arrogant overconfidence about him. For that reason, I also took a small sprinkle on Zhumagulov "by decision" at (+330), given that this fight will ultimately be in the hands of Las Vegas judges.

Prop Pick

Jimmy Crute by submission (+240) Inside the distance (+105)

Although I'm a fan of Jamahal Hill's stylings, I couldn't help but take a shot on Crute, given the stylistic matchup at play.

I'm sure Hill has been working hard to shore up his ground game, but matching him up with one of the more capable submission grapplers in the division feels a bit cruel. Crute is a legitimate black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who can actually wrestle quite well.

Factor in Hill's turbulent training camp and the fact that this fight takes place in the smaller cage, and I couldn't help but sprinkle on Crute both "by submission" at (+240) and "inside the distance" at (+105). If you're a parlay player, feel free to consider pairing Crute up with Alex Morono for plus money.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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