UFC 269 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Bet of the Card: (3u) Over 1.5 Rounds @ -110 (to Return 5.727 Units)
(0.5u) Amanda Nunes via Decision @ +500 (to Return 3 Units)
Co-Main Event – UFC Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:45 p.m. EST.
- Amanda Nunes has gone on to win 4 decisions over the course of her last 10 fights (9 of which were 5 rounders).
- Julian Pena has gone over 1.5 rounds in each of her last 6 fights, with 3 making it to the scorecards.
At -800 (best odds), I could probably still make a case for backing Amanda Nunes here. But, for the purposes of offering up one of my bets that has a little more bang for your buck, I prefer taking the over 1.5 rounds prop.
Nunes tends to approach fights in two different ways, she either comes out and looks to end the fight early, or she’ll take her time, looking to out-class her opponent as the fight goes on. Bizarrely enough, there’s no real indicator for how or when Nunes will opt for either strategy, as for some of her best opposition (Cyborg, Holm – pictured below, and Rousey), she’s dispatched of them in the first round, whereas for some of her lessor opposition (Spencer and Pennington), she’s taken them late.
All this said, there’s no denying that Pena is a tough fighter, and she’s only been TKO’ed once in her career, and that came via doctor stoppage (per Sherdog.com). She has been submitted twice, which is a mild concern, but generally Nunes isn’t too focused at utilizing her ground game, and Pena is still a strong Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner in her own right.
There’s no real question for me that Nunes should get the win here, barring anything crazy happening, but a good proportion more often than not, I see her taking this fight later than getting it done in the opening 7.5 minutes, and because of this, I’m going to be making a sizable bet on the over 1.5 rounds prop. As an additional play, I’m also taking some Nunes via Decision at +500, it’s simply too big of a number considering that she’s proven that she’s happy to coast to 5 round decisions against inferior opposition.
(2u) Charles Oliveira Moneyline @ +140 (to Return 4.8 Units)
(1u) Charles Oliveira to Win Inside the Distance @ +210 (to Return 3.1 Units)
Main Event – UFC Lightweight (155lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:30 a.m. EST.
- Charles Oliveira holds the record for the most stoppage wins in UFC history (17), as well as most submissions (14) per StatsLeaders.UFC.com).
- Dustin Poirier has a takedown defense percentage of just 61%, and just 3 fights ago he gave up 4 takedowns to Dan Hooker, a fighter not known for his wrestling (per UFCStats.com).
Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira is a perennially overlooked fighter, and for a period whilst he was fighting at featherweight, that was warranted, due to the holes in his striking and his faulty gas tank. However, since moving back up to lightweight, he’s been on a 9-fight win streak, including 8 stoppages, and he’s flipped the script on everything people thought they knew about him.
I understand what people see in Poirier, in regard to what could win him this fight. He’s incredibly well-rounded, has tight boxing, and has the heart and cardio to bring a tough fight out of anyone. That said, skill for skill, I don’t see him as the better fighter. Do Bronx has shown us that his wrestling is at a ridiculously high level now, his striking has seen a comparable amount of advancement, and his offensive grappling is arguably the most dynamic and tricky in the entire UFC.
The only factors that should be driving people to bet Poirier as a favorite, at least by my estimations, is whether his chin and conditioning is on a whole other level to Do Bronx’s. For me, I don’t think so. Michael Chandler showed us that Do Bronx can get clipped and put down, but by that same token, Do Bronx showed us that unlike his former self, he’s not willing to stay down. As for his gas tank, no one has been able to stick around long enough with Do Bronx recently to show us an issue with it, or at least apply an offensive pace on him, enough so to test it.
Ultimately, I think Do Bronx has got Poirier largely covered from a skill perspective. I will give Poirier the upper hand in pure boxing, but with Do Bronx’s minor edges in height (5’10” vs. 5’9”) and reach (74” vs. 72”) (per UFCStats.com), combined with his distance management and rangy kicks, I see him limiting the amount of pressure Poirier will be able to roll forward with on the feet. In his last fight, Do Bronx was able to take down Michael Chandler, who is one of the best wrestlers in the division, and I see no reason to think that he couldn’t take Poirier down. Once on the mat, it’s a whole other world for Poirier. He’s a very solid grappler, but against Do Bronx, he’s going to be facing a level of jiu-jitsu than he’s never faced before.
For these reasons, I see Charles Oliveira as the clear value side in this bout. I think he’ll get the stoppage in victory, so I’m also taking some of his “inside the distance” prop, to support my moneyline play on him.
(1.5u) Kai Kara-France Moneyline @ +125 (to Return 3.375 Units)
Main Card - Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:45 p.m. EST.
- Kai Kara-France ranks amongst active UFC flyweights: 1st for Striking Differential (1.18) and Takedown Defense (87%), as well as 2nd for Strikes Landed per Min. (5.02), Sig. Strike Defense (66%), and Knockdowns Landed (tied-4) (minimum 5 UFC fights) (per StatsLeaders.UFC.com).
- Cody Garbrandt has won just 1 of his last 5 fights, and 3 of his 4 losses have come via KO/TKO.
I have never been the biggest Kai Kara-France (KKF) fan from a betting perspective, but in this spot, I see plenty to like from him as the ‘dog.
For starters, Garbrandt is making his first step down to 125lbs, and although this could be the right weight class for him, it always brings volatility and question marks, especially in regard to how durable a fighter will be, given that they’ll be cutting more weight. On top of this, KKF has posted decent takedown defense stats, and he’s displayed slick striking defense, both of which will serve him incredibly well against Garbrandt, a fighter whose gameplan largely relies on catching his opponents with big shots or working in takedowns so he can ground out his foe on the mat.
I do have some concerns with KKF’s chin, as we’ve seen him get clipped badly by Brandon Royval multiple times, and he’s got 2 KO/TKO loses on his record from his pre-UFC career (per Tapology.com), but compared to Garbrandt’s history of taking a canvas nap, it’s barely playing on my mind.
At the end of the day, this is a volatile a fast fight. Either fighter has the ability to switch the other’s lights off at any moment, but with KKF’s speed advantage, plus his proven track record at flyweight, combined with Garbrandt’s mostly poor showings over the past few years, it’s hard not to take a shot on the underdog, Kai Kara-France.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier / UFC 269: Do Bronx vs. Dustin / #UFC269
Location & Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date: Saturday, December 11th, 2021
Start time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST., Prelims: 8 p.m. EST., Early Prelims: 5:30 p.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on PPV, Prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+, Early Prelims: on ESPN+
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Full Fight Card Predictions:
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Main Event Prediction:
Lightweight (155lbs): Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier – Oliveira via Submission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Main Card Predictions:
(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Peña – Nunes via Decision
Welterweight (170lbs): Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio – Neal via KO/TKO
Flyweight (125lbs): Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt – France via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Raulian Paiva vs. Sean O'Malley – O’Malley via Decision
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Prelim Card Predictions:
Featherweight (145lbs): Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige – Emmett via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz – Munhoz via Decision
Heavyweight (265lbs): Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa – Sakai via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Jordan Wright vs. Bruno Silva – Silva via KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Early Prelim Card Predictions:
Middleweight (185lbs): André Muniz vs. Eryk Anders – Muniz via Submission
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Miranda Maverick vs. Erin Blanchfield – Blanchfield via Decision
Flyweight (125lbs): Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell – Perez via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Ryan Hall vs. Darrick Minner – Hall via Submission
Bantamweight (135lbs): Randy Costa vs. Tony Kelley – Kelley via Decision
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Gillian Robertson vs. Priscila Cachoeira – Robertson via Submission
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.