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MMA handicapper Dan Tom is back with his best bets and predictions for UFC Fight Night, as well as his analysis of the main event, Oliveira vs. Poirier.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Oliveira vs. Poirier Picks, Props, and Best Bets

With the UFC in full swing throughout 2021, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

Click Here For Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

UFC Fight Night Main Event

The main event for UFC 269 features a fantastic lightweight title fight between Charles Oliveira (+140) and Dustin Poirier (-160).

Oliveira vs. Poirier Odds

It's a fight that has hardcores such as myself buzzing, but it's also a fight that's very volatile from a betting perspective.

For that reason, I don't blame anyone for sitting this one out and cracking a drink open instead, as that's probably the smart move. Nevertheless, I'll still be putting some small action down given that I'm very familiar with both sides.

I initially came into this contest leaning toward the favorite in Poirier due to the fact that he is proven in five-round wars (as well as the tidbit that this fight will be taking place in the bigger octagon).

That said, I don't suspect this fight will even get into the championship rounds considering the stylistic chaos at hand.

Poirier's counters and bodywork will keep him alive for a knockout throughout but suspect that his propensity to get pushed back into the fence will put him right into Oliveira's offensive wheelhouse early. For that reason, I ended up sprinkling on both the money line and "Oliveira by submission" at +310.

  • Oliveira Moneyline (+138)

Fighter to Target

Andre Muniz (-140)

Muniz vs Anders Odds

Although this card has plenty of offerings you can argue throughout, I'm trying to stay focused on the fights that I'm able to get the best reads on.

In that spirit, I elected to target Andre Muniz, who takes on Eryk Anders in a middleweight affair.

Not only is Muniz someone who has been measurably undervalued throughout his undefeated UFC run, but I also believe that the Brazilian should have a fairly clear stylistic edge in this fight.

Anders has yet to be submitted as a professional, but the former collegiate football player has never faced a fighter who will willingly force a grappling match as Muniz can.

Add in the fact that Anders has a propensity to crowd his work against the fence (a place where Muniz initiates a majority of his finishes from), and I ended up sprinkling on the submission prop at +140 to go along with a money line play.

Prop Pick

Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell "Fight not to go the distance" (+100)

Perez vs Schnell Odds

Despite still believing that Alex Perez makes for a solid parlay piece opposite Matt Schnell, I elected to target a prop here instead.

Perez will be the better wrestler and more powerful striker of the two, as I suspect that he can break Schnell down with leg kicks en route to a finish.

However, with Schnell being known for an upset submission or two, I decided to play "fight doesn't go the distance" at +100 as a straight play/potential hedge for a Perez brainfart.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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