Dec 16, 3:38pm | 4 min read

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lewis vs. Daukaus

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MMA handicapper Christian Broughton bagged over 9 units of profit last weekend at UFC 269. Looking to close out the year in style, he focuses on the final card of 2021, UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus

ANALYSIS

Bet of the Card: (2u) Josh Parisian Moneyline @ +170 (to Return 5.4 Units)

Don'Tale Mayes vs. Josh Parisian

Preliminary Card - Heavyweight (265lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 4:20 p.m. EST.

Josh Parisian is 7-1 over his last 8 fights and his only loss came via decision (per Sherdog.com).
Don’Tale Mayes is currently 1-2 in the UFC, with both of his defeats coming inside the distance.

This fight is going to be sloppy mayhem and I’ll be damned if I’m not going to be betting the ‘dog on sheer principle.

Josh Parisian is not good, however, fortunately for him, neither is Don’Tale Mayes. Mayes has the larger frame and is seemingly more technical and athletic, but Parisian has pressure, volume, and a desire to push past adversity, something that Mayes simply doesn’t have.

I see Mayes winning this fight quite handily through the first, but as is almost always the case with Mayes, he will begin to fatigue, and that will allow Parisian to take over. It won’t be pretty, and you can almost guarantee that Parisian will look the worse for wear come the final bell, but I see him being the more active fighter throughout, resulting in him either forcing a late stoppage or claiming the decision victory. And for that reason, I feel obligated to take the shot on him considering he’s a moderately sized underdog.

(1u) Angela Hill Moneyline @ +300 (to Return 4 Units)

Amanda Lemos vs. Angela Hill

Main Card - Strawweight (115lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:45 p.m. EST.

Angela Hill ranks amongst active UFC strawweights: 3rd for Significant Strike Accuracy (50.1%), 4th for Strikes Landed per Min. (5.71), and 2nd for Takedown Defense (77.4%) (minimum 5 UFC fights) (per StatLeader.UFC.com).
Amanda Lemos has posted a Significant Strike Defence of just 46%, which pales in comparison to Hill’s 63% (per UFCStats.com).

Amanda Lemos is riding high right now on the back of a 4-fight win streak, with 3 stoppages victories, all of which have come in round 1. She’s demonstrated power and technique on the feet, as well as overwhelming pressure on the ground. Because of this, it’s easy to see why people are buying into her as this new surging, powerhouse contender at 115lbs. However, before I can truly believe, I need to see her take on someone like Angela Hill.

Hill is as tough as they come, and although she has grappling deficiencies, Lemos hasn’t shown a relentless desire to grapple, instead favoring to strike. Well, if she’s going to do that in this fight, I’d be pretty stunned to see her dispatch of Hill, as she has done to some of her most recent comps’. Furthermore, I’m seriously looking to see how her cardio stands up over the course of a hard-fought 15-minutes, against a fighter who will push the pressure and land with volume.

There’s a good chance that Lemos is who she appears to be, but Angela Hill is the perfect fighter to test that, someone who’s got solid output, volume, and technical stand-up skills, combined with absurd durability. The first round could be a bit dicey, especially if Lemos looks to take Hill down, but as the fight goes on, I could easily see Hill being the stronger of the two, potentially leading her to win rounds 2 and 3 as the sizable ‘dog.

(1u) Derrick Lewis to Win Inside the Distance @ +185 (to Return 2.85 Units)

Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus

Main Event - Heavyweight (265lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:45 p.m. EST.

Derrick Lewis is tied-1st all-time for the most KO/TKO victories in UFC history (per StatLeaders.UFC.com).
Chris Daukaus is 12-3 as a pro, with all 3 of his losses coming inside the distance, including 2 defeats (per Tapology.com).

Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis is arguably the biggest anomaly in the sport of MMA. He’s not particularly athletic, conditioned, or skilled, yet he is now a long-time mainstay at the top of the UFC heavyweight division. It’s impossible to deny that his power is obscene, but his ability to win against fighters that he’s almost out-matched against skill-for-skill in all areas, is quite remarkable. He’s beaten some of the very best over the years, and that makes him the perfect barometer for up-and-comers like Chris Daukaus.

Daukaus has trailblazed his way to an impressive 4-0 in the UFC, with all 4 wins coming via KO/TKO. That makes for intriguing read, but his biggest test to date was a 40-year-old, Shamil Abdurakhimov, who was returning to the Octagon from a two-year hiatus. Now, that’s not to say that Daukaus didn’t look great in that fight, only to suggest that we’re going to have to see him take on tougher opposition before we can really see how good he truly is, and that’s what I expect to find out this weekend.

Lewis is not a fighter who collapses under the pressure of his opponents. He’s more than happy to circle the cage, keep distance, and keep his right hand cocked and loaded for any incoming attack. I’m unsure if Daukaus will respect this or not, but if he comes crashing forwards, throwing volume, and looking to close range, I feel like he’s going to play right into Lewis’ gameplan. And, if he simply sits back and waits, looking to pick Lewis off at range, then I’m not sure he’s got the accuracy, timing, and skills to do this with minimal risk, similarly to the way that Cyril Gane fought against Lewis.

Another big factor for me is that prior to joining the UFC, Daukaus racked up 3 losses (all stoppages), with 2 coming via KO/TKO. The most recent one was in 2019, which isn’t a great sign for Daukaus, and that’s without peeling back the layers to see that both actually came against fighters who aren’t even remotely close to having the same power that Lewis bears. The improvements that Daukaus has made to his game since these defeats are evident, but if he’s been put down before, not all that long ago too, then I’m going to be hard pushed to think that he couldn’t be again by someone with Lewis’ knockout power.

Daukaus could come out here and put a beating on Derrick Lewis, but I see Lewis as the value side given that he’s the significantly more known commodity, who’s fought against the far superior opposition, and that he’ll be the best fighter Daukaus has ever faced in his career by a large margin. Ever one for searching for maximum value, I’m electing to take Lewis’ inside the distance prop at +185, over his +120 moneyline, as I don’t see this fight going the distance, and if it does, I’d be shocked to see Lewis claim the decision.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus / UFC on ESPN+ 57 / UFC Fight Night 199 / UFC Vegas 45 / #UFCVegas45

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, December 18th, 2021

Start time: Main Card: 7 p.m. EST, Prelims: 4 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus