Odds format
United States
Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Copy Link
MMA expert and handicapper Dan Tom is back with his best bets and predictions for UFC Fight Night, as well as his analysis of the main event, Lewis vs. Daukaus.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Lewis vs. Daukaus Picks, Parlay, and Best Bets

With the UFC in full swing throughout 2021, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

Click Here For Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

UFC Fight Night Main Event

Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus

The main event for UFC Vegas 45 features a showdown between heavyweight sluggers Derrick Lewis (+120) and Chris Daukaus (-140).

Click Here For Lewis vs Daukaus

Although it's easy to make the argument that the value lies on the underdog side of this equation, I caution anyone who is considering laying serious cash on this volatile contest. Not only is heavyweight MMA a dangerous game to bet on, but I believe that both betting angles and sexy price tags are few and far between.

A comeback knockout from Lewis can certainly materialize this Saturday, but I think that the fast starts and hand speed of Daukaus will put "The Black Beast" in precarious positions early and often. In fact, fighters who stick to striking generally produce the best results against Lewis, as I suspect that Daukaus won't be looking to lean on his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt this Saturday.

The official pick will be Daukaus via a somewhat surprising first-round finish, but no action on the headliner here.

  • Daukaus Round 1 (+360)

Underdog Pick

Darren Elkins (+165)

Swanson vs Elkins Odds

Although this card has plenty of offerings you can argue throughout, I'm trying to stay focused on the fights that I'm able to get the best reads on. And for that reason, I decided to take a shot on one of my favorite underdogs in Darren Elkins.

Although Elkins' opponent, Cub Swanson, is also a favorite of mine, I suspect that this fight could bring about some past problems for him from a stylistic standpoint.

Aside from turning away Kron Gracie in 2019, Swanson has traditionally fared poorly against specialists and/or superior wrestlers. Swanson has shown that he can still get down at 38-years of age, but I still suspect that Elkins' style will age more gracefully at this point in their careers.

There are no guarantees in this game, but I'll gladly back a wrestle-heavy dog (particularly inside of the smaller cage) who will fight for your money like Elkins does.

UFC Fight Night Parlay (+143)

Gerald Meerschaert (-235), Amanda Lemos (-310), Raoni Barcelos (-340)

As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a chalk trio that could produce a solid plus number on the payout.

For my first leg, I elected to go with Gerald Meerschaert, who faces Dustin Stoltzfus.

Not only is Stoltzfus taking this fight on somewhat short notice (filling in for Absupiyan Magomedov), but I believe that he'll be stepping into a bad stylistic matchup on paper. Aside from a massive experience edge for Meerschaert, I suspect that his southpaw stylings will provide problems for Stoltzfus considering the issues that the German-American had when dealing with Kyle Daukaus.

Even though a submission finish is always on the table for a guy like Meerschaert, I'd be looking more toward the "inside the distance" line given the openings to the body that I see on Stoltzfus in this fight.

For my second leg, I decided to back Amanda Lemos.

Not only is Lemos the arguable dark horse of her division, but the Brazilian fighter has legit skills that translate whether she's coming forward or looking to counter. Lemos may pack enough power in her pinpoint strikers to give Angela Hill her first stoppage loss via strikes, but suspect that the sub prop may be worth sprinkling on.

Hill has shown a propensity to wrestle more in fights while Lemos – though known for her striking – quietly hails from a solid submission grappling camp in the Marajo Brothers Team.

Lastly, I ended up closing this parlay with Raoni Barcelos, who will do battle with Victor Henry on short notice.

Henry is a well-rounded fighter who has accrued a ton of experience outside of the UFC under the care of Josh Barnett. That said, Henry – for exciting as he is – seems to struggle against fighters who can competently wrestle and grapple.

When you consider that Henry will be facing a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in Barcelos (who is also a former member of the Brazilian National Wrestling Team), it then becomes hard to like the newcomer's chances outside of some sort of hail mary. Still, I suspect that Henry's skills and durability will see him through to the scorecards, as the over 2.5 rounds at plus money is looking awfully tempting as an added bonus...

Click Here For Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.