CFB Picks 11/21: Georgia Too Technical
Thursday night features only one game on the college football slate with an ACC battle between two teams sitting in the bottom of their divisions.
Here’s a closer look at that matchup:
- Georgia Tech has failed to cover the spread in each of the last seven games at home
- Ten of NC State’s last 11 games in November have gone under the total points line
- Since 2017, NC State has an 2-6-1 O/U record when playing as an away team after traveling 500 to 1,000 kms
- Georgia Tech has a 5-7 ATS record at home after a loss since 2016 (Stats courtesy of Statschecker)
The NC State Wolfpack and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets face off with hopes of each snapping a month-long losing streak.
NC State (4-6, 1-5 CONF) lost a fourth game in a row following a 34-20 defeat to the Louisville Cardinals.
The Wolfpack lead 10-7 at half-time before allowing 20 unanswered points in the third quarter.
Freshman quarterback Devin Leary took over as the starter four games ago and remained winless in his young career.
Leary completed 24-of-44 for 243 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, adding 12 carries for 23 yards.
Junior wide receiver Emeka Emezie had one of his best games of the season, leading the team with eight receptions for 90 yards and one touchdown.
Georgia Tech (2-8, 1-6 CONF) dropped a third consecutive game and it wasn’t pretty as the Yellow Jackets were shut out at home by the Virginia Tech Hokies 45-0.
There weren’t many positives on the offensive side of the ball for the Georgia Tech triple-option as no player rushed over 21 yards, nor passed over 43 yards.
Freshman quarterback James Graham completed 7-of-14 for 43 yards and two interceptions while adding eight carries for two yards.
Georgia Tech is my play to cover the spread (-1.5) and take under 47.5 points.
These teams matchup evenly and don’t share a common opponent, yet the Yellow Jackets had more of a significant win when defeating the Hurricanes at Miami 28-21.
Georgia Tech is 2-0 in the two meetings between NC State since 2010 with an average win margin of 21.5 ppg.
Although both these teams are 2-8 ATS this season, my advantage is going with the home Yellow Jackets with the spread sitting below two points.
Meanwhile, both these teams have significantly struggled to scored points this season, ranking in the bottom of the ACC.
Georgia Tech is averaging a conference low 16.5 ppg while allowing the second most (31.1 ppg). NC State has totaled the second fewest points (22.9 ppg) while allowing the fourth most points (29.2 ppg).
The Wolfpack have reached the under total six times this season while the Yellow Jackets have hit the Over/Under an even five times each.
Both these teams’ offensive struggles are reason enough to feel confident in the under at 47.5 points.
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