College Football Week 4 Predictions: Best Betting Picks of the Week
Both teams here had impressive performances last week on different sides of the ball.
UNC’s offense finally clicked last week by posting 59 points, 699 yards, and an unbelievable 10.3 yards per play.
Meanwhile, Georgia Tech’s defense held six-time defending ACC champs, Clemson, to just 14 points, 126 passing yards, and a low 4.3 per play.
UNC’s offense is what we expected and follows their track record the past two-plus years.
Georgia Tech’s performance is not their usual trend for the past two-plus years. UNC is undervalued here.
North Carolina 38, Georgia Tech 20
Pick: UNC -13 (-110)
These programs are inverse images of each other. Mark Stoops has built the Kentucky program by consistency, culture, player development, and a proven smashmouth identity in the trenches.
South Carolina may out-recruit Kentucky, but they are among the nation’s lowest in Pick Six Previews’ player development metric.
It also appears that Kentucky has finally unlocked their passing game after two years of one-dimensional offense. Will Levis already has seven passing touchdowns in three games, while Terry Wilson had seven in the entire 2020 season.
Kentucky’s culture, discipline (penalties/turnovers), and identity have outweighed South Carolina’s recruiting hype: the Cats have won 6 of the last 7 in this series, and that trend will continue.
Kentucky 24, South Carolina 16
Pick: Kentucky -4.5 (-110)
Three weeks in, Oklahoma has not flexed their muscle as a national championship contender.
They allowed Tulane to get within one score and then did the same last week against Nebraska. The Huskers matched or arguably outplayed the Sooners on offense and defense, but the special teams gave Oklahoma a net nine points.
West Virginia impressed with a ranked win by beating Virginia Tech for the Black Diamond Trophy. While their offense hasn’t found its rhythm yet, the defense is strong enough to slow Oklahoma.
Much like how Nebraska kept it close, West Virginia will do the same.
Oklahoma 34, West Virginia 20
Pick: West Virginia +17.5 (-110)
The Iron Skillet is on the line for these two DFW rivals. SMU added fuel to the fire this week when a player called TCU soft and not wanting to play them. Gary Patterson’s team thrives with bulletin board material – last year, when Texas head coach Tom Herman demeaned Patterson’s defensive scheme, I wrote here that TCU would pull the double-digit upset outright, and they proved me right.
SMU is also in an emotional trap, coming off of a crazy final-play win last week. So TCU has the extra motivation, on top of revenge from their previous meeting (2019 SMU win). And they are the more talented roster.
TCU 34, SMU 21
Pick: TCU -9.5 (-110)
Iowa’s defense may just be the best in the nation. However, a common opponent with another top defense, Texas A&M, adds some context. Kent State ran for 226 yards (5.0 per carry) on A&M’s vaunted defense. And the same Kent State was held to just 79 (1.9) against Iowa.
Colorado State got blown out by an FCS school and lost to lowly Vanderbilt.
Iowa 37, Colorado State 10
Pick: Iowa -23.5 (-110)
Georgia is ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll but is No. 1 in Pick Six Previews’ weekly ballot.
The offense clicked with JT Daniels back in the lineup as he hit on deep balls to Jermaine Burton and Adonai Mitchell. UGA is also involving their blue-chip running backs in the passing game, hitting them on swing passes in the flats.
Look for gaudy offensive stats and for UGA’s defense to clamp down Vanderbilt. Of course, 35 is a lot of points, but this is number one vs. dead last.
UGA 52, Vanderbilt 13
Pick: UGA -35 (-110)
Fresh off of a loss to FCS Northern Arizona, UA has lost a nation-worst 15 straight games. Oregon now has Playoff buzz and will need to keep their foot on the gas.
Oregon 48, Arizona 17
Pick: Oregon -28 (-110)
Navy has stumbled out of the gates this year, with blowout losses to Marshall (49-7) and Air Force (23-3). Worse, they lost those games ATS by 39 points and 14 points. I’d take Houston over both Marshall and Air Force.
Houston 34, Navy 10
Pick: Houston -19 (-110)
Even though the coordinator has changed, LSU’s defense still looks to have significant flaws.
They took poor angles and missed a ton of tackles against UCLA. Worse, they were completely out-physicalled. We know Mississippi State will be airing out the ball in Mike Leach’s offense. While I’m not calling for a repeat of last year’s SEC-record passing output, I think 56 points is too low.
Pick: Over 56 (-110)
College Football Week 4 Picks
- North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech: UNC -13 (-110)
- Kentucky vs. South Carolina: Kentucky -4.5 (-110)
- West Virginia vs. Oklahoma: West Virginia +17.5 (-110)
- Texas Christian vs. Southern Methodist: TCU -9.5 (-110)
- Iowa vs. Colorado State: Iowa -23.5 (-110)
- Georgia vs. Vanderbilt: UGA -35 (-110)
- Oregon vs. Arizona: Oregon -28 (-110)
- Houston vs. Navy: Houston -19 (-110)
- LSU vs. Mississippi State: Over 56 (-110)