Kansas State vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Picks: Against the Spread and Latest Odds

College football expert Ian Cameron breaks down this weekend's Kansas State vs. No. 6 Oklahoma's showdown. He gives his prediction and picks here.
Ian Cameron
Wed, September 29, 7:51 AM EDT

Kansas State vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Picks: Against the Spread and Latest Odds

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Point Spread: Oklahoma -10.5

Total: 52.5

Game Time: Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, FOX

Kansas State vs. Oklahoma Prediction

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You wouldn’t know the Oklahoma Sooners are still undefeated if you hear the mainstream narrative about a less than inspiring performance to begin the season with the Sooners involved in some very unimpressive ‘closer than expected’ victories in each of the last two weeks against Nebraska and West Virginia. The Sooners will aim for a more complete and thorough performance on Saturday as they travel to Kansas State to face the feisty Wildcats.

Oklahoma has looked disjointed to this point in the season. I think that is a very fair and accurate word to evaluate what we’ve seen from the Sooners. We’ve seen Oklahoma’s offense look great at times. But, on the other hand, we’ve seen Oklahoma’s offense look very average at times. Quarterback Spencer Rattler has thrown for over 250 passing yards per game, which isn’t bad, but the scoring output has been an issue thanks to too many stalled drives and turnovers by the offense. As a result, Oklahoma is averaging just 26.3 points per game this season. For an offense with the talent, the Sooners have on it, and the uptempo pace they play at is very underwhelming in terms of overall production, to say the least. The offense has not been firing on all cylinders to this point. 

The same goes for the defensive side of the football, and many people thought the Sooners would have one of their best defenses in the Lincoln Riley era this season. Oklahoma’s defense has been good at times and only mediocre at others. Kansas State’s offense has its own issues entering this game, namely at the quarterback position. Skylar Thompson has been injured and out for the last two games leaving Will Howard as the Wildcats quarterback, and he’s been a subpar pocket passer from the beginning, and that continued in last week’s 31-20 loss on the road against Oklahoma State. Howard had a rough day and ended up getting replaced by Jaren Lewis, who was modestly better. The problem for the Wildcats as they fell behind, which took the ground game out of play on offense and running back. Deuce Vaughn is by far their best and most talented player on offense. Kansas State couldn’t keep going to him and running the football because of the deficit.

On the other side, Oklahoma has been unable to attain a sizable lead or margin in their last two games against Nebraska or West Virginia. If history repeats itself here, Kansas State should be able to maintain balance on offense and allow themselves to stay committed to running the football. Oklahoma’s run defense has been solid, but Kansas State was able to run the football down Oklahoma’s throat when these teams met on this field back in 2018 as the Wildcats had 213 rushing yards on 45 carries in a victory for K-State. Kansas State is a physical and smash-mouth squad, which has been the prototype of teams that have been a problem for Oklahoma in the last few seasons.

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Kansas State is 2-0 SU and ATS in the two head-to-head meetings in 2019 and 2020 against Oklahoma since Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman took over the program as the Wildcats won outright as 23+ point underdogs in both games. Oklahoma has proven to be a matchup nightmare, and I don’t see things changing this time around either. Skylar Thompson hasn’t been ruled out of returning to the field at quarterback for Kansas State this week. If he doesn’t, the other two quarterbacks on the K-State roster, Will Howard and Jaren Lewis, will split the reps during the game. Additionally, Oklahoma is struggled to win by a margin. All three of Oklahoma’s wins against FBS competition this season against Tulane, Nebraska, and West Virginia were by margins of 7 points or less. Therefore, I expect Oklahoma to be in a battle to win this game at all, let alone win it by a double-digit margin. It’s worth noting that Kansas State is 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and 9-3 ATS in their previous 12 games as a home dog.

Kansas State vs. Oklahoma Pick

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