Texas A&M vs. Alabama Prediction, Over/Under Pick, and Latest Odds
Spread: Alabama -18
Game Time: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Where To Watch: CBS
Texas A&M vs. Alabama Prediction
The Alabama Crimson Tide squashed the narrative that Ole Miss had a shot to go into Tuscaloosa and beat them as Alabama rolled to a comfortable 42-21 win. The defense was opportunistic, including on the game's opening drive by Ole Miss stopping them on 4th and short at the 5-yard line, and from that point on, Alabama dominated the game. You could tell that early turnover on downs by Ole Miss really took a lot of the wind out of their sails last week. Alabama's defense finished the game allowing just 291 total yards to an Ole Miss offense that is averaging 522 total yards per game this season. It was the best performance of the season by the defense and a bounce back after their last game against an SEC opponent, Florida, where we saw Alabama yield 246 yards on the ground alone and 440 total yards to the Gators.
That spells trouble for a Texas A&M offense that has been dormant for the last two weeks against SEC competition with Zach Calzada at quarterback, who has taken over the position from an injured Haynes King. A&M scored just 32 points in their last two games combined against Arkansas and Mississippi State, and they were -2.2 yards per play. They have cluster injuries at wide receiver, with Chase Lane and Caleb Chapman questionable to suit up on Saturday. The Aggies offensive line has struggled in pass protection as they have surrendered three sacks in three straight games. In addition, they have had injuries to Layden Robinson and Luke Matthews, forcing head coach Jimbo Fisher to put multiple freshmen on the field along that offensive line. That is a massive concern against an Alabama squad that has registered 2.4 sacks per game, which indicates a potential line of scrimmage edge for Alabama in this game with their defense.
The Crimson Tide offense was balanced and consistently moved the chains, and kept the explosive Ole Miss offensive attack on the sidelines. Alabama QB Bryce Young was 20-for-26 for 241 passing yards and two touchdowns, and an interception. He has a 73% completion rate and an impressive 17-2 TD-INT ratio after five games this season. The Texas A&M defense is the main reason they've been able to win games and compete. Still, their secondary was ripped apart by Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers last week, who completed 78% of his passes with three touchdowns. Bryce Young can cause similar problems, especially with Texas A&M playing without two of their best cornerbacks, as Myles Jones and Brian George are out for the rest of the season.
I took my chances betting against Alabama last week, taking the points with Ole Miss, and paid the price for it. I'm unwilling to go back to the well again fading the Crimson Tide, especially with how problematic the Texas A&M offensive line is right now, which spells trouble here in a matchup with Alabama. This is not a bargain point spread with Alabama laying -18 in this game on the road at Texas A&M as clearly an adjustment has been made following two straight losses for Texas A&M against Arkansas and Mississippi State, but I would still lean that way. I think the best way to get involved with a wager in this game is to look at the Texas A&M Team Total Under 16.5, as we saw the Aggies score just 10 points a couple of weeks ago against Arkansas, which has a comparable defense to Alabama.
Texas A&M vs. Alabama Pick
Texas A&M Team Total Under 16.5