LSU vs. Florida Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds
LSU vs. Florida Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds
Spread: Florida -10.5
Total: 58.5
Game Time: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
Where To Watch: ESPN
#20 Florida's Record: 4-2 (2-2 in SEC)
LSU's Record: 3-3 (1-2 in SEC)
LSU vs. Florida Prediction
The Florida Gators suffered a late-season home loss to the LSU Tigers, 37-34, last season which ended any chances of Florida being a playoff team. Now, the Gators have a chance at revenge and redemption on Saturday as they face the LSU Tigers, who are struggling mightily entering this game.
Florida bounced back from a loss to Kentucky on the road and throttled Vanderbilt, 42-0, in Week 6. The Gators' defense totally dominated the Commodores and they held Vanderbilt to 287 total yards and only 88 yards on the ground on 34 attempts.
Things will get more challenging here for Florida against an LSU offense led by QB Max Johnson that has had its moments, although they have also been very inconsistent. The Tigers scored 27+ points against UCLA and Mississippi State but only mustered a combined 40 points in their last two games, both of which were losses SU and ATS vs. Kentucky and Auburn.
LSU has not been able to run the football at all this season, averaging 83.5 yards per game on the ground and just 2.9 yards per rush. But, Florida is already a pretty good run defense and they are weaker against the pass, so I think LSU’s aerial attack with Johnson at QB will have some success here. The bad news for LSU is that they have now been outgained in each of their three SEC games and are also -2.1 yards per play in those games against Kentucky, Auburn and Mississippi State.
I think the Florida offense can have plenty of success in this game moving the football, especially on the ground, which is their preferred route offensively. The Gators have a solid stable of running backs. They have averaged 211.7 yards per game on the ground and 5.6 yards per rush as a team this season. The alarming thing about the Tigers' defense is that they've surrendered 202 rushing yards and 6.1 yards per carry against their last 3 SEC foes.
Florida should have success running the football here against a struggling run defense and that should free up QB Emory Jones to become more dangerous making plays as a runner. It should also open things up in the passing game. Jones has a very good 67.9% completion rate, although he does need to improve on his decision making as he has 7 INTs on the season.
The good news for Jones is LSU is struggling to get takeaways on defense, especially interceptions. The Tigers also have mounting injuries on defense with cornerback Derek Stingley, a possible top-10 NFL Draft pick, out with a foot injury. Arguably the team’s best pass rusher, Ali Gaye, will be out for this game as well due to injury.
I don’t often lay road chalk of this magnitude, especially in conference play, but I side with Florida here. The Gators will likely be interested in serving up some payback to the Tigers for LSU’s stunning 37-34 upset win as 24-point underdogs over Florida in Gainesville last season.
Florida has better numbers than LSU offensively by +1.6 yards per play and defensively by +0.8 yards per play. The Over is 3-0 in the last three meetings between Florida and LSU and I expect more of the same here. Florida should have plenty of success offensively since they prefer to run the football and face an LSU defense that has been unable to stop the run in conference play. On the flip side, LSU’s offense through the air should be able to test the Florida secondary despite the problems they’ve had running the football.
LSU vs. Florida Picks
Pick: Florida -10.5 @ -110