Ohio State vs. Purdue Prediction: Can Purdue Play Spoiler Again?

Ohio State vs. Purdue prediction and pick for Saturday's Big-10 showdown between the two teams. Handicapper Ian Cameron gives us his pick for this one.
Ian Cameron
Sat, November 13, 5:15 AM EST

Ohio State vs. Purdue Prediction: Can Purdue Play Spoiler Again?

Ohio State vs. Purdue

Spread: Ohio State -20.5

Total: 63.5

Game Time: November 13, 3:30 p.m. ET

Where to Watch: ABC

Ohio State vs. Purdue Odds

Ohio State vs. Purdue Prediction

The Purdue Boilermakers will look to continue their reign of terror on Big Ten contenders on Saturday when they travel to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes. Purdue has faced two Big Ten teams this season that were undefeated prior to the game and the Boilermakers won both outright as underdogs, knocking off Iowa 24-7 on the road and handing the Michigan State Spartans their first loss of the season.

The biggest positive for Purdue following last week’s win against Michigan State was the improvement of the passing attack, led by QB Aidan O’Connell. O'Connell had his best game of the season, attacking the Spartans secondary relentlessly with 40 completions on 54 pass attempts for 536 passing yards and 3 TDs with no INTs.

It was a near-flawless performance from the Boilermakers' offense through the air, and it was a welcomed sight to see for head coach Jeff Brohm, who has been the architect of some very dynamic and explosive pass offenses in the past at Purdue and in his previous head coaching stop at Western Kentucky.

With Purdue’s passing attack coming on strong, it sets up what could be a solid matchup against an Ohio State defense that is clearly worse against the pass than the run. The Buckeyes are allowing 247 passing yards per game this season, compared to just 109 rushing yards per game on 3 yards per carry.

That could mean some trouble for Ohio State’s secondary as they go up against the emerging duo of David Bell and Jackson Anthrop at WR for the Boilermakers. The two have a combined 32 receptions in the last two games against Nebraska and Michigan State.

Ohio State will be looking to keep its 7 game winning streak intact, although they have failed to cover the point spread in each of their last two games, with smaller-than-expected margins of victory against Penn State and Nebraska. The Buckeyes' offense has had some problems finishing drives in the red zone in each of the last two games. Their red-zone efficiency numbers for the entire season are still Top-5 caliber, but the Buckeyes saw their offense repeatedly stall in the red zone and in opposing territory in their last two games against the Cornhuskers and Nittany Lions.

Ohio State was also without WR Garrett Wilson last week and he’s questionable for this game as he remains in concussion protocol. The Buckeyes throw the football more than they run it on offense and Purdue’s strength defensively is their secondary, which has surrendered just 185 passing yards per game at 12 yards per completion. The pass rush of Ohio State is a concern for Purdue, as the Buckeyes have been getting pressure on opposing QB’s lately while the Boilermakers' offensive line has surrendered some sacks and pressures.

Aside from a bad game they had in a 30-13 home loss to Wisconsin, Purdue has shown themselves to be fully capable of competing against some of the better teams on their schedule. In addition to beating Iowa and Michigan State, they also hung tough on the road against Notre Dame earlier in the season, and even though the final score was 27-13 for the Fighting Irish, it was a late TD to extend the lead for Notre Dame in a game where Purdue actually outgained Notre Dame in total yardage.

Purdue has yet to lose a game this season by more than this point spread and it’s worth noting that Ohio State has a massive back-to-back set of games on deck after this one as they face Michigan State and Michigan to wrap up the regular season. I think Purdue stays within this big number and I bet them at +20. I also lean to the over in this game.

Ohio State vs. Purdue Pick

PICK: Purdue +20 @ -110

LEAN: Purdue/Ohio State Over 62 @ -120

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