Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds
Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds
Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers
Spread: Oregon -7
Total: 61.5
Game time: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: ESPN
Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction
The rivalry between Oregon State and Oregon is known as the “Civil War” and is one of the most fierce rivalries in all of college football. Though Oregon’s College Football Playoff hopes are likely vanquished after last week’s loss to Utah, the Ducks still have plenty to play for this week, as they need a win to clinch a berth in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Can Oregon get past last week’s deflating loss and rally for a win this week, or will Oregon State play spoiler and get some help to secure their spot in the conference championship game?
With a 5-3 conference record, Oregon State needs to beat Oregon and hope that Washington beats Washington State in the Apple Cup to secure their spot in the Pac-12 Championship. The Beavers have had drastic home/road splits all season long, as they are 6-0 SU in Corvallis and just 1-4 SU in their five road games, including losses in their last three. The Beavers have lost their last six games in Eugene and are 1-12 SU in their previous 13 road games against Oregon. Oregon State ranks third in the conference in total offense with 433.9 YPG and is sixth in scoring defense, allowing 24.8 PPG.
Oregon’s loss last week sealed the fate of the Pac-12 being again left out of the College Football Playoff, as the conference has not had a playoff team since 2016. The Ducks’ tied their lowest scoring output in four seasons with Mario Cristobal as head coach, with seven points in last week’s loss to Utah. In addition, the 31-point loss was their worst loss in school history as a top-five team. The loss also snapped a five-game winning streak, though Oregon has won their six home games this year by an average of 19.0 PPG
Oregon’s defense entered last week allowing an average of 120 rushing yards per game, 3.5 yards/rush (best in the Pac-12), and had allowed 40 rushes of 10+ yards. Meanwhile, Utah’s rushing offense entered the game averaging 215 rush yards per game, 5.9 yards/rush (top-five in FBS) and had 79 10-yard rushes. Utah’s yards per carry average and 10+ yard rushes each ranked in the top-five in FBS. In the strength vs. strength matchup, the Utes’ physicality up front won out, as they ran for 208 yards and 4.2 yards per carry.
The biggest concern for Oregon heading into this week is their lack of healthy receivers. Oregon played last week without receivers Johnny Johnson III and Jaylon Redd and now have to deal with the loss of Mycah Pittman, who announced earlier this week he was leaving the team. Pittman served as Oregon’s primary punt returner, and the former top-150 recruit also added 12 catches this year. Now, the Ducks go into this game against the Beavers with Devon Williams as their only wide receiver of their top four that is healthy.
With the lack of weapons at quarterback Anthony Brown’s disposal, look for Oregon State to key in on the running game, and negate the running ability of both Brown and running back Travis Dye. Oregon entered last week ranking second in the conference with 3.0 yards per rush before contact. However, they are likely to face many more loaded boxes, which will neutralize the running lanes that the Ducks have counted on there being all season.
Oregon State’s Chance Nolan was not asked to do much in last week’s win over Arizona State, throwing for just 90 yards on 18 attempts. However, he will need to limit the turnover problems that have plagued him this season, as he has seven interceptions in four road starts. In addition, Nolan has completed less than 58% of his passes in each of his last three road starts.
Thus, with Oregon’s compromised passing game and Oregon State’s inability to have the same success offensively on the road as they do at home, a defensive struggle should break out in this game. Though the over has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings in Eugene between these teams, these two offenses are not built to light up the scoreboard like the teams before them.
Oregon vs. Oregon State Pick
PICK: UNDER 61.5 @ -105