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Utah State vs. San Diego State prediction and pick for Saturday's Mountain West Championship Game. Lightning Locks breaks it down and tells us how to play it

Utah State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds

Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs

Spread: San Diego State -6.5

Total: 49.5

Game time: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET

Where to watch: FOX

Utah State vs. San Diego State odds

Utah State vs. San Diego State Prediction

This year’s Mountain West title game will feature a clash of styles when the high-flying passing attack of the Utah State Aggies faces off with the dominant run game and defense of the San Diego State Aztecs. Utah State has been the surprise of the conference this year, winning 6 of their last 7 while Brady Hoke has his San Diego State team looking for their first-ever 12 win season.

The Aztecs are the betting favorite here for good reason. Utah St struggled badly vs. the run as recently as 2 weeks ago when Wyoming racked up 300+ rush yards in a 44-17 laugher and now the Aggies face one of the top rushing attacks in the country. And the betting public sees more of the same here, pushing the Aztecs up to nearly a TD favorite.

But with a total under 50, is this line a bit too generous? Brady Hoke’s squad is only allowing 17.4 PPG on the season but this is not a team that lights up the scoreboard, managing just 23 points or fewer in 5 games. Sure, they will have success on the ground but are quite one-dimensional and I expect Blake Anderson to have his D more prepared than what we saw vs Wyoming. And Utah State's passing attack is the real deal, capable of hitting big plays to a variety of speedy receivers that opposing defenses have struggled to contain all year. Plus, Utah State has been surprising people all season and believe they belong in this game. They may only need 17 points to cover this spread, which is a reasonable expectation.

The Aggies are an ideal contrarian play in a game where you simply can’t find anyone picking them. Well, look no more because I have the Aggies making this a game. In what should be a low-scoring contest with a potent offense, I suggest buying the hook to get a full TD and taking a shot on Utah State to keep it close.

Utah State vs. San Diego State Pick

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