Alabama vs. Georgia: CFP National Championship Best Bet

Brett Ciancia is here with his best bet for the CFP National Championship between Alabama vs. Georgia. Ciancia finished with a 36-28 (56.3%) record ATS in Power 5 spread picks here at Oddschecker.
Brett Ciancia |
Mon, January 10, 9:45 AM EST | 5 min read
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Georgia Bulldogs Football Helmets

Alabama vs. Georgia: CFP National Championship Best Bet

It seems like the common move nowadays is to complain about the all-SEC championship game, complain about the playoff system, and repeatedly state how “broken” the sport is.

I reject all of that – our great sport is not broken, the 4-team bracket is the perfect playoff system, and I am thoroughly excited for Monday’s national championship.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Georgia Bulldogs - College Football Playoff National Championship

Spread: Georgia -3

Total: 52.5

Date: Monday, January 10

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

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Alabama vs. Georgia Line Movement

Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction

With Alabama and Georgia, we have the #1 and #2 recruiting programs of the past five seasons.  Their rosters combined have 33 former five-star recruits, which is more than the entire Big 12 and Pac-12 conferences combined.  Along with the star power, this game matches up the Heisman winner against the #1 regular season defense since 1986.

On a program level, Georgia is in search of its first national title in over 40 years, and to do so they must clear the high hurdle that has held them back from national titles in 2012, 2017, and 2018:  Alabama.  They have been so incredibly close – 3 yards away in 2012, a 4th & long and 90% win probability in 2017, a late lead, and 80% win probability in 2018.  And to do it here in the 2021 finale, they will have to play a much better game than their first battle with Alabama back in the SEC title in December.

When Georgia has the ball, there are three keys to victory: limit the turnovers and interceptions thrown by Stetson Bennett, maximize the red zone trips, and have a breakout performance by a wide receiver (probably Pickens) who threatens the secondary and forces them out of the box.  Those first two keys could have flipped the December game result if Bennett avoided those red-zone picks.  Yardage-wise, UGA had success passing against Alabama, and dynamic tight end Brock Bowers went for 100+ yards.  Bennett impressed last round against Michigan and connected on multiple deep balls.

When Georgia is on defense, there are two keys if they want to get back to their record-breaking form:  contain Bryce Young in the scramble game, and win the one-on-one battles.  In the December game, UGA brought their blitzes up the middle, which forced Young out of the pocket, where he is at his best as an elusive scrambler.  Look for Kirby Smart to tweak the scheme, and bring the pressure from the outsides, containing Young and forcing him to stay in the pocket.  In the 1v1 game, the pass rushers need better success against All-America tackle Evan Neal who stoned them last time, and the corners like Kelee Ringo need to slow All-America receiver, Jameson Williams.

Many of these keys are easier said than done, but enough of them will break Georgia’s way, and the Bulldogs will finally break through to national title glory.   In the words of the legendary UGA announcer Larry Munson, it’s time to “Hunker down, you Dawgs” and “step on their face with a hobnailed boot and break their nose.”

Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Prediction: Georgia 27,  Alabama 23

Pick: Georgia -2.5 (-110)

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Brett Ciancia
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