Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction: Points Won't be Easy to Come by in Indianapolis

Alabama vs. Georgia prediction and pick for Monday's CFP National Championship Game in Indianapolis. Handicapper Lightning Locks breaks down the game at gives us their favorite picks. Don't expect a lot of points when these two teams come together with a title on the line.
Lightning Locks |
Mon, January 10, 1:29 PM EST | 6 min read
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Georgia vs Alabama

Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction: Points Won't be Easy to Come by in Indianapolis

Spread: Georgia -2.5

Total: 53

Date: Monday, January 10

Game time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Alabama vs. Georgia odds

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Alabama vs. Georgia Prediction

We all saw this coming when they played each other the first time. No one really thought Cincinnati would beat Alabama and we all know Jim Harbaugh can't win the big game. These two schools are just dominating every year and it's getting old, but we got the best matchup and the rematch we all expected after the SEC Championship.

So, Alabama head coach Nick Saban will be looking to add an eighth National Championship since taking over the program in 2007 and his sixth Championship game since 2015. That's insane, but when you have the best recruits that's what happens.  Bama has the Heisman winner in QB Bryce Young, the best defensive player in the country in Will Anderson and even though they are missing John Metchie, their best receiver, they always have a stable and can win games offensively or defensively as someone steps up. 

Georgia hasn't won a title since 1980 but they were seconds away from beating Bama in the title game in OT in 2018. If they lose tonight it will be a hard one to take for Bulldog fans. The Georgia defense might be the best we have ever seen in college, except for the Alabama game when they gave up 41, which was more than they had given up in the previous 5 games (insane). 

This game will be about adjustments as the Georgia Defense didn't even get one sack against Alabama the first time out. I'm willing to bet that doesn't happen again tonight.  We aren't the only ones who think so. Alabama star Will Anderson was quoted saying "That was the last game. We have to focus on this game. It's going to be a whole, totally new game, new arena, new setting, everything. So we're going to see something different that we probably haven't seen before. We have to be prepared for it."

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We are focused on the total and we also see a different game this time around and possibly one more like the last time they played in the championship, which ended 26-23 in overtime.

In that one, Saban made an in-game adjustments that won his team the game. Remember one big thing, Georgia didn't give up more than 17 points all year until the loss to Alabama. They did that playing in the SEC, so we are talking about the class of the NCAA, not a weak conference schedule.

IF Kirby Smart wants to live up to his last name, he better fix a few things. He needs to keep Alabama off the field more on offense and when they are out there, they can't let Young throw for 421 yards. Not to mention, Jameson Williams looked like a Heisman winner with a 7-184-2 stat line.

Georgia's success comes down to their QB on offense as Stetson Bennett may not be Heisman-worthy, but he also can't throw 2 picks again as those changed the game. We expect him to play much better today and not stink like the cologne he is named after. 

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We can throw all the stats at you about how Georgia was dominant all year, giving up less than 10 points a game, and just 254 yards. We can talk about how they were embarrassed by the  Alabama game and want revenge. But, execution is what matters. Even without Metchie for this game, Alabama had way too many big plays. 

Georgia must adjust, fix these issues and take away the big plays, and we think they will. The 2nd quarter changed the game in the first matchup with a 38-point outburst from both teams. That is highly unlikely to happen again with all the big plays.

Just look at yesterday in the NFL as the WFT and NY Giants played a completely opposite game from their first matchup, and even Tampa and Carolina went from 38 to 58 in just a few weeks.

This is a rematch from a few weeks ago and the best unit on the field is the Georgia defense. Now they need to play like it because this team goes where the defense takes them (as they did all year) and we learned that opening night when they held Clemson to 3 points. 

Need proof, you say? Well when you hold 8 opponents under a touchdown and shut out 3 of them, you are LEGIT.  Before the Alabama game, no team had scored more than 17 points on them and that's the defense we expect tonight. Alabama is playing well and their defense shut out Cincinnati like no one's business last week. They were #7 in the country, giving up only 305 yards per game. You can talk all about the offense and the Heisman, but the defense did their job when it had to against Auburn and Arkansas. When the defense fell flat, they lost to A&M, but coach Saban said the team changed after that loss and grew up. 

In conclusion, we feel there were too many big plays or one-play scores last game. If you take those away, you have a 44-point game. We know Kirby SMART will make changes and live up to his last name.

Alabama is missing Metchie, their best receiver. This time around, both teams know each other's tendencies and both teams just won games with their defense. Georgia's last four bowl games have gone under. Meanwhile, Alabama is 3-0-1 to the under in their last 4 bowl games.

Our model predicts a much closer game and one in the 45-48 point range.  Look for a more methodical offensive game from Georgia in order to keep Alabama off the field and look for the defense to get more sacks than last time (0) and to avoid those big-play touchdowns.

The under is the only way to go tonight and not sweat out the side. The total is 52.5-53 at every book and we locked in under 53 and feel we have a touchdown in value. Watch, and more importantly win, the title game with the under tonight as we end the season how we started with Georgia under.

Alabama vs. Georgia Pick

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