LSU vs. Florida State Prediction, Pick, Odds: Should You Back The Underdogs Jordan Travis and the Seminoles?

LSU vs. Florida State Prediction, Pick, Odds: Should You Back The Underdogs Jordan Travis and the Seminoles?

We have football on Sunday in September, but it is not the NFL. Instead, we are blessed with a college football game. There is an FCS game on today as well, but this matchup proves to be much more interesting and also happens to have the better bet. This is a matchup in the Superdome in Louisiana, a neutral site between the two schools. Sure, Baton Rouge is 3.5 hours closer, but I'm sure many FSU fans will make the five-hour trip for this game. The critical question for this game is if 4.5 points is enough against a solid defensive team in FSU.

LSU Tigers vs Florida State Start Time Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: September 4, 2022
• Time: 7:30 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ABC

Click Here for LSU VS Florida State Odds

LSU Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction

The short answer for me is no. Especially with some afternoon line movement, this line has moved from less than a field goal at 2.5 to 4.5. The majority of bettors are heavy on LSU, as the latest report is that 77% of bets are on the Tigers. I am personally fading the public and backing the dog.

The key mindset to this game is that there are some question marks on both sides. This is typical for a week one matchup, but the Tigers have even more question marks, as they have essentially gone through a full reset. Brian Kelly is the new face for the Tigers, and the program has cleaned house to rebuild. The Tiger's main question to answer is who will be the starting quarterback, as they have a few talented options. LSU is expected to play Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier against FSU, but no one really knows how much we will see of either. Daniels is the more mobile quarterback, and with potential holes in the offensive line, he is likely to be the starter against the talented FSU front seven.

The main story of this game is likely to be the defense. Both teams enter this matchup with solid defenses. The LSU defensive line is maybe the best in the SEC, while the FSU defensive line is also one of the best in the country. I suspect we see a sack-heavy game with the quarterbacks scrambling often. Florida State will no doubt pressure up front, but the key for the Seminoles will be stopping the explosive plays. LSU was 111th in rushing success last season but is known for producing star receivers, so the test will be more on the secondary than up front for the Noles tonight.

Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis showed tremendous improvements last season. Travis showed more success than Milton last season, as Milton went 0-4 and Travis went 5-3. Travis' three losses were by three to Notre Dame, by ten at Clemson, and by three against Florida. While it's not the best comparison to compare last year's results to this year, Travis lost by less to Notre Dame and Clemson than he is getting tonight against LSU. Travis improved in essentially every statistic last season, and he got an entire offseason to work with, knowing he is the starter. The bad news for the Seminoles is they lost leading rusher Jashuan Corbin to the NFL, but sophomore Treshaun Ward is back, and he averaged 6.4 yards per carry last season.

The Seminoles have an advantage in this game in that they have already played a game together this season. It was a 40-point win against Duquesne in which Florida State failed to cover the -41.5 line, but they ran the ball basically all game. I expect Travis to unleash it a bit more in this game against LSU, and for what it's worth, his passes looked good against Duquense, even though that secondary is nothing like LSU's. LSU has yet to play a game this season, which could be problematic as they have new pieces on both sides.

Ultimately, this comes down to my belief that Florida State's stout front seven will be an issue for LSU to deal with. Travis has shown significant improvements, and this FSU squad played close games with some of the best teams in the nation last season. If this were a true home game for LSU, maybe I would have laid the opening -2.5 line on them, but getting 4.5 points in a neutral site on FSU is too good to pass up. I'm on the Seminoles tonight.

LSU vs Florida State Pick

Pick: FSU +4.5 @ -110  (Bet $110 to win $100)

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