Wisconsin vs. Illinois Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Chase Brown, Illinois Take Down Wisconsin?

Wisconsin vs. Illinois Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Chase Brown, Illinois Take Down Wisconsin?

Wisconsin heads back home after taking a beating last week in Ohio after losing 21-52 to Ohio State. The loss moved Wisconsin to 2-2, and they will now try to bounce back against Illinois. Illinois is coming off a 31-0 shutout win over Chattanooga and has now won their last two games overall. However, this is the first game Illinois will be a dog of over a half-point. Can Illinois hang with Wisconsin as seven-point underdogs?

Wisconsin vs. Illinois Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: August 1, 2022
• Start Time: 12:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: FOX

Wisconsin vs. Illinois Odds

• Moneyline: Wisconsin (-250)
• Spread: Wisconsin -6.5 (-115)
• Total: Over/Under 43.5 (-110)

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Wisconsin vs. Illinois Prediction

Illinois has had one constant every game and even in their loss against Indiana: Chase Brown. Chase Brown leads the nation in rushing yards through four weeks with 604 rushing yards, surpassing number two Mohamed Ibrahim by 37 yards. Chase Brown became the first Illinois running back to rush for 100-plus yards in five straight games last week against Chattanooga. Brown is one of the most explosive runners in the country, and we are sure to see him in the NFL very soon. I believe he is set up for success once again today.

Illinois is a prime example of a grind-style team. They focus on defense and winning the line of scrimmage while controlling the time of possession with Chase Brown. Brown has been racking up yards in blowouts, sure, but even in a close road game against Indiana, Brown had 36 attempts for 199 yards averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Brown has averaged 6.4 yards per carry this season, and his rushing long is 38 yards. Brown has averaged 150 yards per game this season, which is much higher than his line for this contest.

The line for Brown's rushing yards is only 115.5, which still feels too low, which sounds insane. 115.5 rushing yards sounds high because it is, but Chase Brown is a different animal, and he is facing a suspect Wisconsin rushing defense. Wisconsin allowed an astounding 258 rushing yards against Ohio State, and while it was a blowout, that's still an issue. The week before that, New Mexico State only scored one touchdown in garbage time but still got 118 yards on the ground. The defensive line will have to stay locked in on Brown all game, but it hasn't seemed to matter to Brown anyway through four games.

The bottom line is Chase Brown looks unstoppable. He has accounted for 35% of Illinois' total yards this season and leads the nation in rushing yards. Wisconsin is 100th in line yards in the country and 85th in rush success allowed. They are 49th in the nation with 121.5 rushing yards allowed per season. The line for this game is at a touchdown, but Illinois should be able to keep this a competitive game, meaning they shouldn't have to rely on the passing game to stay in this one. Illinois' best chance of winning this game is to control the clock and run up their time of possession, which means lots of opportunities for Brown. Brown had 36 rushing attempts against Indiana and nearly doubled the line he is set at today. Until Brown shows any sign of slowing down, I will be all over his rushing line. He is averaging well above this line, and Wisconsin's run defense has been porous this season. Take Brown to have another big game today.

Wisconsin vs. Illinois Pick

• Chase Brown O115.5 Rushing Yards @ -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

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