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Thursday Night College Football action tonight and we have a fantastic Sun Belt matchup between two of the top teams in the conference. Can the Trojans pull the upset? Let’s break it down.

South Alabama vs. Troy Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds

South Alabama vs. Troy Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, October 20
  • Time: 7:30 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPNU

South Alabama vs. Troy Odds

  • Spread: Troy +3 (-105), South Alabama -3 (-107)
  • Total: Over 47 (-107), Under 47 (-104)
  • Moneyline: Troy (+135), South Alabama (-154)

Click here for South Alabama vs. Troy odds

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South Alabama vs. Troy Prediction

Troy comes into this game with a record of 5-2 which is fairly impressive, but in my opinion, they have been even better than their record may indicate. One of Troy’s losses came on the road to Ole Miss where they actually covered the spread and held their own on the defensive side of the ball as they only allowed the Rebels to score 28 points.

Ole Miss now sits at 7-0 and is ranked in the top 10 in the country and has only been held under 30 points in one other game this season so Troy’s loss to Ole Miss is not a blemish that I would consider as negative. Troy’s other loss this season came as 13.5 point underdogs to Appalachian State in a game that they had all wrapped up until the final play. Troy led App St in the final seconds before the Mountaineers completed a hail mary to win the game's final seconds.

While the loss is disappointing, Troy covered the spread easily and played a very solid game. Troy has played very well in the underdog role this season as they are 4-0 ATS as underdogs including outright wins over Western Kentucky (+5) and Marshall (+3). Troy’s defense has been their strongest attribute this season as they have held their opponents to 20 points or less in four games this season and in the other three games where they allowed 20+ points, they still managed to go 3-0 ATS in those games so they have done a great job of finding different ways to win and keep games close no matter if it has been high or low scoring.

Their opponent tonight is South Alabama who has been one of the better stories in College Football this year. South Alabama comes into this game with a record of 5-1 and their only loss came on a last-second field goal to UCLA where South Alabama nearly won SU as 17 point underdogs. South Alabama has been getting it done with their offense but their defense has been very lackluster over the past few weeks. They allowed 438 yards to Louisiana Monroe who is one of the worst teams in the conference and only won that game by seven as 17-point favs so they underperformed mightily.

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The week before that, they only allowed 276 yards to Louisiana Lafayette but it was their offense that struggled as they were only able to score 20 points and only had 10 points going into the fourth quarter. South Alabama is 0-2 ATS against their last two opponents and seems to be regressing a bit from their early season surge.

Troy on the other hand has been in much better form and should have the better defense tonight. Couple that with the fact this line is only -3 in favor of the first-place home team and I think the line is telling us a clear story of what is to come tonight. With that being said, I am rolling with TROY +3 at -105 for 1U as one of my most confident College Football plays of the night.

South Alabama vs. Troy Pick

TROY +3 at -105 for 1U (Bet $105 to collect $95)

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Article Author


Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.


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