Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Pick, and Odds: Can Haynes King and the Aggies Get Back on Track?
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Pick, and Odds: Can Haynes King and the Aggies Get Back on Track?
Ole Miss was a popular moneyline favorite in Week 8 on the road against LSU, but it turned out to be fruitless, as the Rebels were blown out by the Tigers 45-20 for their first loss of the 2022 season. Lane Kiffin will have his team prepared for another difficult road environment in College Station during a primetime showdown against the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies have lost three straight games and are spiraling downward under head coach Jimbo Fisher. Texas A&M nearly pulled off the upset against Alabama when they were short-handed without former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Bryce Young, but they could not execute a goal-line possession at the end of that game. The Aggies had no chance to beat South Carolina during its third consecutive road game in Week 8, falling behind 17-0 in the first quarter and never recovering. Will the Rebels take advantage of the Aggies' losing slump? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Saturday's primetime matchup between the Ole Miss Rebels vs. Texas A&M Aggies.
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Start Time and Where to Watch
Date: Saturday, October 29
Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: SEC Network
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Odds
Spread: Ole Miss -2.5 (-120), Texas A&M +2.5 (+100)
Total: Under 55 (-110), Over 55 (-110)
Moneyline: Ole Miss (-145), Texas A&M (+125)
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Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Injury Report
Ole Miss
RB Ulysses Bentley IV (Questionable - Wrist)
Texas A&M
QB Haynes King (Probable - Foot)
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Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Prediction
One of the blatant weaknesses in Texas A&M's program is its run defense. The Aggies have allowed opposing rushing attacks to average over 4.5 YPC in five of its last six games. While they improved in this metric against the Gamecocks in Week 8, Texas A&M still allowed South Carolina to finish with three rushing touchdowns. The inability to control the line of scrimmage and time of possession is ultimately what has doomed the Aggies against their opponents this season. A huge home upset against Appalachian State is a clear example of this weakness in working against Texas A&M. Despite all of the shortcomings, the Aggies have only lost one game by double-digit points.
Ole Miss has been good on both sides of the ball but ran into LSU's RPO-styled offense, which gave them fits all afternoon. The Rebels have surrendered four rushing touchdowns in each of their previous two games to Auburn and LSU, allowing the opposing rushing attack to total 48 carries averaging well over five yards. Even worse, three of the last four games have seen the Rebels' pass defense allow opposing quarterbacks to finish with a 71 percent completion rate or better. This forces Ole Miss' offense to drop back and pass more than 25 times per game, which is not its strength.
Transfer quarterback Jaxson Dart has been a nice fit under center in Kiffin's spread offense, but the offense consistently turns the ball over. Dart has also been held under a 60 percent completion rate in four of his past five games, complicating Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans' ability to be effective ball carriers. These two running backs have 19 total touchdowns on the ground, but the offense works better when it's not behind by multiple possessions.
The Aggies have been on a grueling three-week road stretch that failed to produce a win. Fisher will have quarterback Haynes King and running back Devon Achane prepared to produce against Ole Miss' increasingly vulnerable run defense. The Aggies, outside of the loss to App State earlier in the season, have been good at home, beating the University of Miami and Arkansas by jumping out to early leads. Ole Miss is 3-5 ATS and nearly lost to Kentucky in a low-scoring contest at home three weeks ago. The Aggies won their last home matchup at Kyle Stadium against the Rebels 38-24 back in 2018. This is a situation primed to produce another upset in the college football rankings.
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The Aggies need to be better at closing out games where they hold early leads. The offense is not overwhelming but the rushing attack can be used to control the clock, while the Texas A&M defense will try to hold Dart under 200 passing yards for the fifth time this season. Give me the Aggies outright on the moneyline at +125. I like them to return home and give their home crowd an eventful matchup that ends with a much-needed win.
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Pick
- Pick: Texas A&M Moneyline (+125) (Bet $100 to collect $225)
Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.