TCU vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Pick, and Odds: Can the Horned Frogs Cover the Spread?
TCU vs. Texas Tech Pick, Prediction, Pick, and Odds: Can the Horned Frogs Cover the Spread?
It's been a tale of two seasons for TCU and Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs stand alone as the only undefeated team left in the Big 12, while Texas Tech has not been able to consistently go on a run due to its lopsided offense. TCU head coach Sonny Dykes built up SMU for five seasons and is doing a remarkable job during his first season with the Horned Frogs, averaging 44.2 points per game on offense.
Texas Tech's first-year head coach Joey McGuire is much greener in terms of experience, but he's managed to lead the Red Raiders to a few impressive wins, most notably, a 37-34 win over the Texas Longhorns back in Week 4. Since that happened, Texas Tech has lost three of its last four games, including a disastrous outing against Baylor in Week 9. It's a team that creates big chunk plays in the passing game with a downfield attack, but the rushing attack is average at best, allowing defenses to key up on sophomore quarterback Donovan Smith. Will TCU avoid a slip-up at home against the pass-centric Texas Tech offense? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Saturday afternoon's Big 12 matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders.
TCU vs. Texas Tech Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, November 5
- Game time: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
TCU vs. Texas Tech Odds
- Spread: TCU -10 (-110), Texas Tech +10 (-110)
- Total: Under 71 (-110), Over 71 (-110)
- Moneyline: TCU (-365), Texas Tech (+300)
TCU vs. Texas Tech Injury Report
QB Chandler Morris (Out - Knee), WR Quincy Brown (Out - Undisclosed)
RB Cam'Ron Valdez (Out - Hamstring), LB Bryce Robinson (Out - Leg), LB Derrick Lewis II (Out - Undisclosed), LB Bryce Ramirez (Out - Leg), OL Cole Spencer (Out - Knee)
TCU vs. Texas Tech Prediction
If there's any weakness that TCU possesses, it's the run defense. Unfortunately for Texas Tech, this has been an area of concern all season. The Red Raiders prefer to air it out with Donovan Smith under center, attempting over 35 passes in every game this season. This isn't to say that they ignore the run game. Texas Tech attempted 36 carries against Baylor in Week 9 when they couldn't establish any rhythm in the passing game, but it resulted in a 4.1 YPC average with only one touchdown to show for the commitment to the running game.
Smith has thrown for two or fewer touchdowns in five of his last six games, with the only successful outing coming against West Virginia's porous secondary in a 48-10 rout by the Red Raiders. TCU is fully matched up with one of the best secondaries in college football. The Horned Frogs have not allowed a 300-yard passer since four weeks ago on the road against Kansas' quarterbacks. A couple of opponents have had success against TCU's run defense but that's more correlated to touchdowns than rushing yards per carry. TCU has held six of its eight opponents under 4.0 YPC this season, only struggling against Kansas State with the dual-backfield approach led by Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez.
Offensively, TCU has been lighting up defenses in a myriad of ways, utilizing Max Duggan's arm talent to perfection. The backup quarterback is now the unquestioned QB1 in TCU's offense after Chandler Morris' early season knee injury, posting over 2,200 passing yards and an 11:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Duggan is also dangerous as a ball carrier, averaging 4.3 YPC and managing four touchdowns on the ground for the Horned Frogs this season. Kendre Miller could hit 1,000 rushing yards against Texas Tech in Week 10, as he's averaging 6.4 YPC and has accounted for all 11 touchdowns on the ground.
It's the perfect opponent for TCU to continue its dominant season. Texas Tech has allowed three or more rushing touchdowns in three of its previous four games played. The run game in general is a thorn in the program's side, as they typically fail to establish the run on offense, leading to Smith airing it out over 50 times per game with mixed results. This won't end well against TCU's secondary.
There is no value to be had betting on the Horned Frogs to win outright at -360 on the moneyline. While I expect a lot of points from TCU, Texas Tech only scored 17 points against Baylor last weekend, which makes betting over the total point line set at 71 points feel like a stretch. That leaves the spread, which favors the Horned Frogs by 10 points at home. I love this line, especially at -110, since TCU has won three of its four home games by 10 points or more this season.
TCU vs. Texas Tech Pick
- Pick: TCU -10 (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210) Bet on this game now and get the best odds at PointsBet
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.